Gun purchase at gun shop
Buzz Hayes Photo

As election day finally arrives, gun sales in the U.S. haven’t experienced the usual surge that has become common with presidential elections over the past 20 years. In fact, October 2024 actually saw a slight decline in FBI background checks on gun-related transactions with numbers dropping by five percent from the same period last year. This trend reverses an upward movement seen earlier in the year and marks a departure from historical election-year patterns, according to The Reload’s Stephen Gutowski. Typically, election years trigger a spike in gun purchases due to concerns over potential restrictions, but that’s not the case this time.

While the total number of sales-related checks through the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) still exceeded a million in October—making it the 63rd consecutive month to hit that threshold—the volume remains notably lower than expected for a high-stakes election year. 

“We haven’t seen what we typically see in an election year,” said Mark Oliva, spokesperson for the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), in an interview with HuffPost. Oliva attributed this deviation to a “steady state” in background checks rather than a spike, and he highlighted that Americans continue to demonstrate their commitment to Second Amendment rights, even if they aren’t flooding gun stores.

Analysts suggest that shifts in political realities may explain the trend. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has softened her stance on gun reform, even noting that she owns a pistol for personal protection. While most staunch 2A supporters recognize this is most likely mere political posturing to appeal to a broader, uninformed electorate, the ranks of gun owners have swelled in recent years with a number of liberal and moderate gun owners in the mix. These voters are likely to not be swayed by fears of a Harris presidency as more traditional, right-leaning gun owners might be. Given this tempered position, as well as the improbability of major gun reform legislation passing in a Republican-controlled Senate (a highly likely outcome of this election), some voters may feel less urgency to purchase firearms preemptively.

Firearms sales, while still steady and strong, have softened since they hit critical mass following fears of increased social upheaval in 2020. It was then that the combined events of the pandemic, the riots following the death of George Floyd, calls to defund police departments and progressive leaders allowing lawlessness to go unpunished in a number of Democrat-run cities that many Americans recognized the need to own a firearm for protection of themselves and their families.

The NSSF pointed to the NICS data, which they adjust by removing background checks tied to concealed carry permits, as a close indicator of sales. However, the numbers reflect broader dynamics, including the lingering effects of the pandemic gun boom, which, as already noted, brought new demographics into the firearm community. 

“Law-abiding Americans – by the tens of millions – are quite literally voting with their wallets and investing in their rights,” Oliva told The Reload in a statement, indicating that while the rush may have slowed, enthusiasm for gun ownership remains strong across the nation.

Gun sales and ammunition sales skyrocketed following the first election of Barack Obama in 2008 out of fears he would push for harsher gun control measures. Those fears went largely unrealized as Obama focused on other issues such as healthcare, but it served to provide a profitable bump and backlog in production for many firearms-related businesses. And while there has been marked increase in gun sales leading up to this election, if Harris does win the election, it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, it has on gun sales following the election. Much of that may depend on who wins in the Senate.

30 COMMENTS

  1. Lots of folks already have enough firepower, which by now, they should have.

    And, many folks have maxed out their line of credit and/or disposable income.

    And, why buy something that the government may seize by this time next year.

  2. “As election day finally arrives, gun sales in the U.S. haven’t experienced the usual surge that has become common with presidential elections over the past 20 years.”

    Two things help in that regard-

    1 – NY Pistol v Bruen.

    2 – They hold a near-zero chance of controlling the upper house, AKA, the Senate…

    • Trifecta WIN!

      I”l keep my end of the bet, Deborah.

      I’ll pay for flight down here and a nice hotel, and we can rut like rabbits until dawn… 🙂

    • I’ve got the same problem.

      I’ve got basically everything I can imagine wanting. Besides that, as a resident of WA state, all the fun stuff is now banned. Fortunately mine were all bought before the bans.

  3. After the past week or so we’ve had, I have to disagree with this article. Sunday was like panic buying toilet paper, but with guns. Both our BGC ladies were backed up most of the day and the rest of us were selling as fast as we can.

    • The interesting aspect of the toilet paper thing is the limitation of manufacturing capacity. The machines that make TP (and paper towels) stand easily 10+ stories tall and run 24/7/365. Ya can’t just throw another one up overnight.

      • The day may yet come when we’re trading @$$WIPE FOR AMMO…
        And don’t forget the Lady’s Hygiene Products…

  4. harris/biden/barry and miner49er have sold enough guns to supply a couple of wars.

    There may be a small bump in sales once Trump is sworn in and constitutional carry becomes the law of the land.

  5. I did my due diligence the last several years. We’re ok for gats n ammo. Besides we’ve had no disposable income buying a truck and other stuff. My new(er) truck is in the shop right now😧

      • This ^
        Want an American-made truck? Get a Tundra. Not a fan of the new hybrid turbo system, but the 1UZ is a million mile engine.

        • My 20 year old Chevy Silverado is totally solid. I wouldn’t dream of buying a new truck (or car) of any sort. For those who want to buy a new truck, Tundra is the way to go.

          • I don’t buy new. A good, used vehicle is better money wise. I really liked my 4 runner. I gave my rav4 to my daughter in Utah. And I gave a son an old camry.

            Another reason I buy used. I keep giving them away. 🙂

  6. Has the market reached saturation?

    Anyone who needed a gun probably bought one since the last presidential election.

    • “Has the market reached saturation?”

      No, because chances are high we can sue and get non-violent felons their gun rights restored.

      If anything, with tens of millions of new gun owners when that happens, the US will need several new ammo plants built…

  7. The fact that household debt has increased dramatically over the last four years is likely the prime culprit, IMO. When you’re using a credit card to supplement your grocery budget it’s hard to justify a new GAT. Particularly so when the cost to feed them (with the exception of some loads in 9mm) has increased as significantly as it has.

    • A combination of what Southern Cross and Dachs said. There was a mad dash to buy/stock up in 2020 and 2021. Then Bidenomics happened. And Kamala is very proud of Bidenomics.

  8. Baby says. “The pig or me?”
    The pig, I can always have more babies but if I starve to death procreation thing is out of the picture.

  9. Probably a couple of reasons . A lot of folks need the money for other things . A lot more have already stocked up on boom-sticks and freedom seeds to not need any for for some time to come . Also , there seems to be little shortage of supplies .

  10. It’s interesting to view this number as a barometer of people’s expectations in re the election results. That said, l auppose a saturated market is the null.

  11. “Analysts suggest that shifts in political realities may explain the trend. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has softened her stance on gun reform…”

    Yadda yadda…

    Americans have been surging for some years now and I think we just ran out of money.

  12. Shocking! Panic weary gun owners failed to fall for the transparent attempt to start a panic !
    https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/winter-is-coming-are-we-running-out-of-gunpowder/

    We learned after Newtown that vendors in the gun industry aren’t friends of gun owners, they’re not even businesses “on the same side”. 95% of them are opportunists. Remember the 30 round magazines that were around $10 each, going up to $130 ? The cancelled MSR sales, relisted 1-2 days later for literally 100% more?

    Now when someone cries wolf about some impending “shortage” or a sale ad rationing ammunition or components, or “Get them before they’re banned” – we know someone is trying to manipulate us.

  13. …and in other election / firearm related news. Democrat Ryan Busse had his tuchus soundly whipped by incumbent Republican governor Gianforte in Montana. We did pretty good in removing three term Democrat Senator Tester and placing a decorated Veteran (Republican) in his place in DC. Goodbye Tester. I hope the Dark Money groups demand a refund from you.

    PS: UPS just delivered two bricks of Wolf Target Match .22… it’s been a GOOD day!

    • It’s been one HECK of a day, what with one thing and another!
      Praise and thank The Almighty and pass the ammunition, brothers and sisters!!

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