President Donald Trump may yet rejuvenate coal mining or bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. But his election already seems to have been detrimental to at least one economic sector: the gun industry.
With the new president firmly aligned with gun-rights advocates, the FBI performed 9 percent fewer firearms background checks in the first half of this year compared to January through June 2016, according to newly released data.
In Georgia, the decrease was even greater. From January to June, the FBI performed about 269,000 background checks in Georgia – 11 percent fewer than the 302,000 it logged in the first half of 2016.
Through June, 2017, there were 12,601,102 NiCS checks. That’s a little lower than 2016 for the same period. 2016 set records because of fears of Hillary Clinton being elected and passing legislation making it hard to buy and own guns.
Bottom line: 2017 looks set to deliver the second highest number of background checks conducted by the FBI NICS (National Instant background Check System). NICS, ever.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusts the NICS checks for gun sales, taking out the NICS done for carry permits or for permit rechecks. Their adjusted numbers show better news for the industry than the unadjusted figures. From thinkingafield.org:
The second quarter 2017 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 3,116,282 is a decrease of 2.0 percent over the 3,179,825 figure for second quarter 2016.
The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by several states such as Connecticut, Illinois, and Utah for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.
According to the Industry group, the first half of 2017 is within two percent of the all-time record for gun sales set in 2016. That’s not bad news. Unless you think gun sales are a problem, that is.
©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included. Gun Watch
So the firearms industry would’ve been better off with Shillary Clinton? And this is journalism…
Actually, probably yes. She wouldn’t be passing AWB’s/etc with a Republican house & senate (unlike the close presidential election, there was never any doubt the congress would turn this last go around) but people would be taking out home equity lines to stock up on everything just like last time. We’d be facing emboldened political/media attacks in pursuit of gun laws no doubt, which would whip up (mostly justified) hysteria that –on paper– is good for the manufacturers at least in the short term. The Sandy Hook panic spurred dozens if not hundreds of AR15 manufacturers into existence, and easily hundreds of accessory makers. Millions of new owners of these guns, too.
Now, as rarefied as the market was even a few years ago, a new panic would have had no effect, but prices had fallen greatly even right before election night, so “panic fatigue” was certainly not going to be a factor. Still not a good thing for the gun industry as a whole in the long run, since while the manufacturers can reap big profits, the distributors and vendors who have to keep them in stock usually end up suffering due to shortage because they can’t react to raise prices fast enough (or are unwilling to, out of some mistaken ‘loyalty’ to stupid customers happy to eat them out of house & home)
There’s no way this data can be correct. I’ve only bought three guns since January 20th.
The trump slump is my fault. I haven’t bought a gun in 3 years. My bad.
How do you sleep at night? Shame on you! ?
Don’t feel too bad, JWM, I’m making up for you, bought 5 guns already this year.
I’m doing my part. Two so far and eyeing a third.
Obviously for us, the enthusiasts, this is a great time. Everything is cheap, we buy more, but there’s a reason there are so many rebates, deals, etc. But for my friends who are…panic…buyers, they’ve dropped to zero. I live in KY, so having a CCDW here means you get a NICS check monthly, and we added almost 5k CCDW licenses, in my county, in the last 7 months according to the sheriff.
Ask any gun seller. All the dealers I’ve asked say sales have tanked. I can buy practically anything, in stock, at a healthy discount. Even Sub2000’s can be found, but only in .40. Bud’s had the PMR30 available, in stock, at a discount from MSRP.
Call it a Trump Slump or whatever you want, it’s a buyer’s market out there.
Jeez you don’t look too hard …Sub2000 9mm in Glock form…$380… Lowest I’ve seen in my 4+ years of watching
https://gun.deals/product/kel-tec-sub-2000-carbine-9mm-uses-glock-17-mags-101-600
Just leave in the numbers for permits and renewals for total NICs checks. Same as the way the Antis include gang killings, suicides and persons between 18-21 as children in the totals for deaths as gun violence,,,,,,,,
As fake as it gets. Anything to keep the BS numbers up.
Shush up. Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Oddly enough, I’ve seen articles claiming the gun industry is both booming and slumping under Trump. I think the reality is it is no longer over-heating, which is not the same as ‘cooling off’ even though the temperature is decreasing. Demand has stabilized at higher levels than ever before, but still lower than the peaks. This means that while record profits are not being attained, profits are still very healthy, and more importantly, strong enough to risk expansion for. A lot of small companies sprang up to make billet lowers/etc after Sandy Hook, and though some of them may have overextended themselves to exploit a historical market anomaly, the big players with plenty of investment capital now see that market demand is simply higher than it was five years ago, and will invest accordingly. It would not surprise me to see more ammunition plants & gun factories being built during the ‘down turn’ we see today than have been seen in decades (not to mention, why wouldn’t you build a new plant or renovate an old one while demand is temporarily low?)
The real ‘acid test’ will be the next time Dems are elected and/or we have a major black swan event. The gun market will panic, and it will be interesting to see if the six-month backlogs return, or if the industry has grown enough to accommodate such demand spikes, sort of like the gasoline market infrastructure of 1970 vs today.
Well put. I agree that we have seen a significant structural increase.
I’m waiting to see news on lead smelter reopening. EPA fangs have substantially already been pulled. We do NOT want to depend on chicom imports for lead.
It’s worth noting that at least some of those NICS checks include the secondary market where you can find barely used firearms purchased during the panic and they have since been pawned. I don’t know for sure but I can’t imagine manufacturers are seeing any profits from the used gun market.
Hey I’ve bought 3 guns (and ammo,holsters,magazines and range time) since Donnie beat the Hildebeast. Doin’ my bit. And more to come…
I’m right behind ya, big guy, and hoping to catch up in the next couple of weeks.
Note to TTAG leaders et al: Giving the AJC’s clickbait screeds your web traffic only gives them ad revenue. Don’t bother.
Live in Georgia long enough, and you learn that the Atlanta Urinal-Constipation is a leftist rag so full of sh!t, wiping your ass with it would only make your ass filthier. They sold themselves out to be the official cheerleaders and apologists for the liberal Atlanta “urban” government, and Democratic party hacks two+ decades ago. Their circulation has fallen off so far, the print edition is little more than a tabloid-thin relic, so to prop themselves up, they’ve resorted to printing up advertising-only sections they throw into EVERYONE’S yard, even if you never subscribed to them. Last I checked, that’s called “littering,” but with their ownership’s corporate HQ in Georgia, good luck getting anyone in GA government to do anything but suck their Cox, and tickle their titties.
To hell with this so-called “newspaper,” and their BS.
So Trump isn’t as good a gun salesman as Barack Obama? Do tell.
So we need to buy new guns? Well the MHS guns are hitting the market so that should help. We could use something besides AR15 and Glock magazine firearms to have some innovation in the market. Maybe a new generation of tactical revolvers. Tactical always sales right?
Of course there’s no significant “Trump Bump.” Do folks not understand how the free market and scarcity works? People bought like crazy under Obama because of his attempted policies and then kept buying like crazy up until the election because of the fear of Clinton policies.
Guns aren’t like milk for most people.
And in fact a few people I knew bought some as ‘investments’ with the idea of selling them under Clinton and that didn’t work out too well (but I guess it never does unless you’re buying actual collectables)
What does a NICS check have to do with gun sales? After everyone went out and got CCW permits, they started buying guns without background checks being required.
Some states still require NICS even if you have a CHL/CCP, for example, Virginia.
So some don’t. That’s my point.
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