In October, Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) broke the news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had stealth-revised its reported violent crime data for 2022 to show a 4.5% increase, rather than the originally reported 2.1% decrease, for that year. Among other things, that adjustment added 1,699 more murders for 2022. Given that the vast majority of murder crimes are reported, Lott asks, “How do you miss 1,699 murders?”

Now, another source, Just Facts Daily (JFD), a “research institute dedicated to publishing facts about public policies,” has done a dive into homicide reporting and uncovered what appears to be an unusually large number of “homicides recorded on death certificates that are not reported as murders by Biden’s FBI.”

As context, the federal Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics explains that the United States relies on “two national data collection systems to track detailed information on homicides: the [FBI’s] Supplementary Homicide Reports and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Fatal Injury Reports.” The Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) are part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, while the Fatal Injury Reports are developed from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), a public health-based resource maintained at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The UCR provides aggregate annual counts of the number of homicides across America that come to the attention of law enforcement and which the local or state agency voluntarily reports to the FBI, while the CDC’s mortality data rely on standardized death certificates that must be filed with state vital statistics offices. “Both systems follow the same rules in applying homicide labels to incidents and victims; however, each system has different subcategories of homicide,” although “the NVSS consistently shows a higher number and rate of homicides in the United States compared to the SHR, likely due to the differences in coverage and scope and the voluntary versus mandatory nature of the data collection.”

While a gap between the number of murders reported by the FBI and the number of homicides recorded on death certificates has existed before, as of 2014 the two measurements reportedly reflected similar trends for homicides rates at the national level. Just Facts Daily, though, claims that the raw number differentials between the CDC’s statistics and the FBI’s homicide data have “grown sharply under the Biden administration,” with the number of homicides recorded on death certificates but not reported or shown as murders in the FBI annual data jumping to 4,569 in 2021 and 3,497 in 2023, or an average difference of “3,711 killings per year during Biden’s presidency.”

What’s more, JFD alleges that in 2023, the “FBI inexplicably revised its pre-Biden murder data all the way back to 2003, elevating the counts in certain years by up to 7%. The FBI made these unprecedented alterations without so much as a footnote to inform the public… [T]he scale of the changes that the FBI published in 2023 are far greater than any in the past. Yet, the FBI only included a footnote to alert people to the change for 2021 and none of the other 18 years.”

Examples that JFD highlights include the gap between the CDC and FBI counts during the presidency of George W. Bush, which “remained roughly level at around 9% except for 2001.” Under the retroactive amendments, the FBI “substantially increased murder counts in the earlier years of Bush’s term,” making it appear that the gap increased from about 0% to 9% during that presidency. During Donald Trump’s presidency, the gap increased from 13% to 17%, but the FBI also “irregularly increased the murder counts throughout Trump’s term, making it seem like the gap jumped up and down between 7% to 13%.”

One possible explanation for the discrepancies in the recent FBI data is that in 2021 (as reported by the Crime Prevention Research Center and others), a significant number of local and state law enforcement agencies responsible for feeding their crime statistics into the FBI’s UCR system stopped or reduced their submissions to the FBI. “In 2022, 32% of police departments stopped reporting crime data, and another 24% of departments only reported crime data for some months during the year.” This would, presumably, widen the gap between the CDC’s numbers and those of the FBI, but nonetheless fails to account for revisions to homicide data that predate 2020.      

The FBI has not been open about the need for these changes, or even, it seems, the fact that they were being made. JFD reports that it has unsuccessfully sought the reasons for the revisions using a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the FBI almost six months ago, and through a more recent email to the FBI’s National Press Office. In another instance of less than optimal transparency, an op-ed by Dr. John Lott earlier this fall discussed how the FBI missed or misidentified many cases of defensive gun use and refused to correct its data even after “the blatant omissions” had been pointed out. “The FBI dataset is missing so many defensive gun uses that it’s hard to believe it isn’t intentional and the fact that they never correct mistakes that are brought to their attention is even more damning.”

Such extensive, unexplained changes to public crime statistics are liable to appear as partisan manipulation of government information, especially after the FBI’s data was found to mirror President Biden’s election talking points on record-low violent crime before it was quietly revised to show otherwise. Too many Americans already view the FBI as untrustworthy and politically biased. A 2023 poll asking which actions should be taken against the FBI in the wake of the Durham report had only 15% of respondents replying that the FBI should be left alone. The highest percentage of participants (39%) felt the agency should be “reformed by Congress to keep it from meddling in future elections,” while the next highest (24%) went for the more nuclear option – the FBI should be “shut down and rebuilt from scratch, it can’t be trusted to do its job.”

Reform and change may be on the horizon. President-elect Donald Trump swept into office on promises to cut government waste and clean house, with a proposed new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). While the FBI is unlikely to be on the DOGE chopping block, there are no doubt some interesting times ahead for government agencies that fail to meet even minimal standards for data transparency and accuracy.

—Courtesy NRA-ILA

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

34 COMMENTS

  1. …the FBI is unlikely to be on the DOGE chopping block…

    At a minimum, end their new building proposal immediately.

      • At a minimum of 500mi from the WASHINGTON MEMORIAL.

        The totally corrupt FBI damn well better be on the DOGE “Chopping block”. And prosecution list.

        • I agree. And I will write my senators, president-elect, and house of representative idiot. I’m still angry that he won re-election.

    • around 50% of federal government office space sets unused in the Biden-Harris regime… let the FBI use that. yep, tax payers paying millions of dollars annually under Biden-Harris to maintain unused office space. Maybe Biden-Harris was planning to use that space in the doubling if the size of government plans they had for a second term by moving in the rest of their marx -ist soci- alist regime such as the office of social media dis-mis information and speech control and enforcement (not a real name, but they had planned for a very large entity office to do that, armed too with some type of ‘law enforcement’ power) and others.

      • It isn’t just the Biden administration. This was going on way back in Obama days, perhaps even before.

      • I’ll be happy to conduct exit interviews, collect badges, ID cards, and agency firearms, and to escort the firees to the door.

        And y’know what? I can be available as soon as January 21st! I won’t need orientation, let’s just get to it. Happy new year!

  2. And this surprises whom, exactly??? The Bidumb/Har-har-Harris “Administration” has deliberately and intentionally lied about EVERYTHING – new jobs, the rate of inflation, economic growth, consumer confidence, poll results – since Senile Joe and Kamal-toe the Ho were sworn in. Anyone who believes ANY number put out by that corrupt mal-administration is either a pathetic, partisan liar (MajorIdiot, I’m looking DIRECTLY at you!) or a deluded fool, or simply dumber than Balaam’s off ass. But embrace the healing power of “and”!!

    And anyone who believes anything said by the corrupt FBI is an idiot. I’m sure there are still a lot of dedicated, honest agents at the FBI . . . led by a cabal of Leftist liars, in support of a deluded Leftist agenda. Fire the top three or four levels, en masse, then carefully weed out the remainder. Or just junk the whole mess, and start over (with a MUCH smaller budget and staffing plan, and a narrow and specific scope of work). Reliable national crime statistics, encouraging cooperation among LEO agencies, providing resources to local LEOs (at THEIR request, not at FBI insistence), and running a reliable, well-equipped national crime lab (if we actually had such a thing) seems like a valid goal. There ain’t that many FEDERAL crimes, and most of those are unconstitutional (i.e., not within the constitutional powers and purview of the federal government).

    I don’t think public education has taught actual civics, history, and US government in years, resulting in a voting base that’s approx. 50% stupid enough to vote for Senile Joe or Kamal-toe (and I am NOT a fan of Trump, but . . . compared to those babbling clowns, he’s positively statesmanlike!).

      • There’s a way to stop stealth ‘editing’ of crime data (*any* data, actually), simply generate and PUBLISH an MD5 ‘hash’ each time when the report is generated…

        • We don’t need a hash. Just punish the hell out of the editors. Make them write on the chalkboard “The FBI is not Wikipedia” 10,000 times. By hand. Printed, not in cursive.

          And THEN fire them and try them for falsifying documents. 10 year prison, no parole, no early release, no “good behavior”.

  3. It is 10.25 am here in CA. If the fbi told me it was daytime I’d look out my window just to make sure they had it right.

    Nothing the biden/harris admin touches is left clean and trustworthy.

  5. I’ll make it simple : eliminate anything containing Bureau, Office of, Department of, Services, National, Regional,
    Agency, Affairs, Security, Assistance, Intelligence, Advisory, or Foriegn anywhere in its title.
    I probably missed some, but that would be a good place to start.

  7. They learned from the UK Home Office. A crime not reported never happened. By playing linguistic and statistical games crime can appear to be reducing when in fact to the public it is increasing.

    • A crime never reported never happened.
      Similar to a city North of me who depends a little on tourism.
      No mention on the late night news of the shoot out that left one dead in the street as witnessed by my daughter in law.

  8. A self-defense event that results in the death of an attacker is deemed “homicide”, no?

    Regardless of who posts “statistics”, and derives conclusions therefrom, the data set used drives outcomes. Who is validating all the data sets used to analyze data, and publish conclusions?

    The problem influences anyone and everyone who is in the business of “statistics”.

    My favorite “statistics” story is of the newspaper headline alleged to report that in a single day, unemployment of a small town rose to 50%. Turned out that the country town only had two residents, and one retired, leaving only one still employed.

    There is a reason government and news outlets love to speak in terms of percentage movement; the actual number change may be insignificant. For instance, people love to read about corporations gaining “record profits”. To set a “record”, the actual number need be only “+1” of anything. Second, the “news” outlets rarely ever ask what is the actual ratio. Too many times I have seen where huge numbers regarding profit result in an actual rate of return to be barely in excess of government bond interest rates.

    • Back when I processed stats across about half of New York state if it was a stupidly low occurrence vs percentage (like your unemployment example) we would place an astrix and go back and see how far it took for other such examples to determine if it was at all an increase (incident per decade or more we’re not uncommon in a lot of the small towns so 3 in two decades did merit a mention for example). No idea how (or if) they are doing it now.

      • I once reviewed a government contract I was tasked (govt word) to help supervise. The contractor had performance metrics against which to measure ability to fulfill the contract. At one point, I came across the contractor’s estimate of ability to successfully meet contract requirements. The success potential was rated at 50%, with a statistical confidence factor of 95%. Looking at some statistics lessons, I learned that the contractor was pretty darned certain it would meet requirements about half the time it attempted an effort required by the contract. The agency was touting that the contractor assured it would reach 95% success overall.

        I was encouraged to keep things to myself.

      • Safe,

        It’s a known phenomenon in “probability and statistics”, usually called “the law of small numbers”. If you have a town of 100 people, and you average 1 murder per year, your “murder rate” is 1%. If, one year, you get a second murder, you now have a murder rate of 2% – but your “murder rate” has (and this is EXACTLY the way most MSM would present it) increased by “100%!!!!!”. Yes, it doubled, for that year, because there was a second murder . . . it’s still a tiny number. And MOST murder/homicide statistics are pretty vague about what exactly gets included or excluded.

        Small changes in small numbers can look enormous if presented “properly” (i.e., to suit the agenda of the presenter). Thus, the “Law of Small Numbers”. My Prob&Stats professor was particularly vicious if you were stupid enough to present a conclusion, on a class assignment, that ran afoul of the Law of Small Numbers.

        • Rightfully so and yeah even with a lot of small number increases all over the last few years the areas where resources are strained/overwhelmed have populations around and over 100k. Even with all the misrepresentation of stats it is plain to see huge increases in homicides especially with knives.

  12. In case my comment doesn’t clear the moderation god. A new report released by American Principles Project shows that 70% of the Biden administration’s Department of Education enforcement actions were against faith and career based schools that account for only 10% of students. Resulting in 10s of millions of dollars in fines. The complete story can be found at FOX NEWS.com

  13. Maybe folks will FINALLY start to recognize that the government and legacy media LIE to us. The government lies and legacy media along with celebrities cover for them instead of holding them accountable.
    It’s high time people start to use their heads instead of believing what they see and hear on TV and the computer.

    It’s like Bidens cognitive decline. IT WAS OBVIOUS. I have a brain, I could see what was happening regardless of what we were being told by fake news.

  14. This is all wrong, backwards, really. More criminal misuse of guns means that we non-criminals need our guns MORE, not less.

Comments are closed.