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When Maine began allowing eligible residents to carry concealed firearms without a government license in 2015, gun control advocates warned that Wild West-style gun violence would erupt across the state.

Instead, the opposite has happened.

In fact, property crime and violent crime have fallen in Maine since the 2015 reform, according to crime data tracked by the FBI. …

While rates of violent crime increased nationally from 2015 to 2020, the rate of violent crime in Maine fell steadily beginning in 2015, after a slight increase from 2014 to 2015, according to data collected by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program.

Property crimes, such as robbery, larceny, and burglary, which had already been declining since 2012, continued to fall in line with the national trend. Property crime rates are now lower than at any time since 1985, when the FBI data begins.

Is the old adage — an armed society is a polite society — proven true by Maine’s experience?

The correlation between decreased gun control and decreased crime doesn’t mean expanded exercise of Second Amendment rights is responsible for the decline.

But it does suggest that repealing the concealed carry permitting law in 2015 did not coincide with any increases in violent crime, as many anti-gun critics predicted.

— Steve Robinson in Maine Crime Fell Following 2015 Repeal of Gun Control Law

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85 COMMENTS

  1. Well, as much as I like the story, and personally believe there is a “cause and effect” relationship at play here . . . correlation does not equal causation. If we don’t want to let the gun-banning idiots get away with this crap, we can’t indulge in it, ourselves.

    That having been said, it certainly does seem evidentiary in opposition to the idiot “Wild West” BS we so frequently hear when a state adopts ‘Constitutional carry’. Suck it, Phil Murphy!!

    • it illustrates that more carry may not drive crime up, a fairly reasonable takeaway.
      regardless, humans gonna human.

      • As long as law abiding Gun Owners are thrown in the same pot with the criminal misuse of firearms expect continued public support for knee jerk Gun Control. That is what happens when gullible milquetoast spoon fed America cannot define Gun Control as an agenda rooted in racism and genocide…

        Sad to say the majority of Gun Owners could not define Gun Control by its history of rot either thus the definition of Gun Control is left to the imagination or to whatever Gun Control zealots make it out to be.

        • please don’t respond to me unless you’re replying to the content of my post. your regurgitated diatribe belongs further down right around where the time stamp would place it.
          do you live in a roomful of cracked mirrors?

        • Debbie, time to get down off that soap box. Your are beating a dead horse there. Everyone of your post ts the same. It could almost be cut-in-paste then going back changing a few words. We can preach gun control and gun rights all day long. Until we, humans, learn to quit killing each other, until we learn there are better ways to resolve conflict, the only thing that will change is the tools

      • And that was my point (perhaps I should have stated it more clearly). The decrease in crime certainly is not sufficient, without further evidence, to conclude that “more guns equal less crime”, but it certainly IS persuasive evidence that more guns DO NOT equal more crime.

        So, if that was your point, as I think it was, we are in vehement agreement!

    • Had the same thing here in Florida 30+ years back when ‘shall issue’ was being debated.

      The ‘letters to the editor’ section of the paper were filled with predictions of gun battles in Wal-Mart parking lots for parking spaces. They were literally predicting the streets and sidewalks would run with rivers of blood.

      And then, over the next 25 years, violent crime trended downwards with the rest of the nation to the present levels roughly one-half what they were in the 1990s.

      Facts are such pesky things… 🙂

    • “……..“Wild West” BS we so frequently hear……”

      Which brings up the the reality/facts anti-gunners hate about the ‘Wild West’.

      Despite what the MSM and Hollywood would like people to believe, gun usage wasn’t very common, especially so in the largest towns in the ‘Wild West’.

      Many towns went YEARS between street gunfight incidents or citizens killed by firearms.

      First step in understanding firearms in society? Forget ALL the Hollywood propaganda and MSMs steaming piles of BS.

      Speaking of ‘steaming piles of BS’, the lil’dtard should be along soon. 🤪

    • ” If we don’t want to let the gun-banning idiots get away with this crap, we can’t indulge in it, ourselves.”

      The thing is, we have empirical evidence on our side. This is not the first time that repealing stupid gun control laws has resulted in lower crime rates. On the other hand, passing gun control laws inevitably leads to higher crime rates.

      I can’t point to science, I can’t find cause and effect for you. But John Locke among others has demonstrated that the empirical evidence is all on our side.

      • Statistics are funny creatures. It is sometimes diffiuclt to find “fact A” and then link that fact to “fact B” on the basis of concurrent happening. Sometimes two such facts ARE indeed co-dependent or cause/effect. More data are needed to establish the nature of the relationship between the two facts.
        If Maine were the only state showing a similar concurrence, ine would be somewhat out on a limb to claim cause/effect. But Maine is far from the only place where such a strong statistican link exists. Ohio is anohter good examle. Florida has been mentioned. Georgia fairly recently changed their laws. Even Illinois made some signican changes at the state level, in comoliance with some court orders. Arizona joins that list, and so on. There certainly IS a higher than neutral shift in violent crime and murders in all those states that have more relaxed firearms laws. Even states with Shall Issue Mother May I Cards show similar trends though they are not as strong as Mommy Already Approves states. John Lott has some amazing and encouraging highly detailed and accurate information that supports the premise that less fettered access and use of arms is strongly co-related with less violent crime of all sorts.

        Fun story out of Portland Oregon from eight or ten years back. The region’s poohbahs got hornswggled into building a light rail system ostensibly to provide better ways of getting about. After some ten years of operating, crime aboard the trains and at the stops they made startd to spike. The MAX (so-called) had a very strict prohibition on firearks of any sort on the trains. While many Portlanders had their Mother May I Cards and carried in many places, the gun ban on the Max made them leave their carry guns at home…. thus they were unprotected. (almost all COULD have carried anyway, very little supervision or security, but we being a law abiding lot generally obeyed the prohibition either by not riding the thing or leavnig our guns home. ) But the crime was getting out of contrul, rudershp was falling like a rock without a parachute, and the poohbahs tasked with making the system work were frantic as to a solution. One fine board member rose to speak in one of their meetings and mentioned” that if folks could be allowed to carry their defensive weapons on the train like they do everywhere else in the Portland area, perhaps at last theyd have a chance of defending themselves whilst using our trains. Beleive it or ot tey voted to change the rule of no gns on the trains. It was announced in the Portland Daily Rag ahat the gn restrictions on the MAX would end on a date in the very near future. That date came and went…. and the line iindicating violent crime aboard the trains and in their immediate vicinity looked a lot like the trajector of a ripe apple falling from its tree. Ridership rose back to or above what existed prior to the sharp rise in violence.
        Of course the “unhoused” perpetrators of most if that crime had to find another target rich environment. They chose the system of bike paths that weave throughout the Portland Metro area. At least we can carry on those paths, and I never use them unless I AM carrying, and will not use many parts of them at night, and a few sections I bypass in the day as well. But at least folks were no longer defenceless on and around the MAX.

        • CALIFORNIA! HELLO!
          “Fun story out of Portland Oregon from eight or ten years back. The region’s poohbahs got hornswggled into building a light rail system ostensibly to provide better ways of getting about. After some ten years of operating, crime aboard the trains and at the stops they made startd to spike.”

    • Good point. It’s entirely possible that constitutional carry was one part of a general law-and-order push and that’s what made the difference. Statistically that’s true.

      Rhetorically the bar is much lower though. The grabbers claim that more guns means literal blood in the street and this is absolute proof that it’s not true.

    • Maine has a minimal black population…that means most of its citizens are law-abiding…..

  2. “The correlation between decreased gun control and decreased crime doesn’t mean expanded exercise of Second Amendment rights is responsible for the decline.

    But it does suggest that repealing the concealed carry permitting law in 2015 did not coincide with any increases in violent crime, as many anti-gun critics predicted.”

    Oh, dear.

    A little ‘inconvenient truth’ the gun-grabbers won’t want to admit.

    {Sobbing uncontrollably.}

    “The truth shall set you free” … 🙂

  3. They pick and choose what correlation means and when.

    Nine out of ten conversations about this with an anti will go as thus:

    “Look, at the very least permitless carry has not contributed to a rise in crime.”
    “That data doesn’t count because Maine is sparsely populated and homogenous.”
    “So you’re saying high population density and diversity contribute to crime rates?”
    “ST0p! pUt1nG w0rdz 1n My mOutH rAyYc1111sT!!!!!!!!”

  4. Um … there are other relevant factors at play here, some of which people don’t want to touch for fear of being punished for “noticing.”

    According to most sources, Maine is almost 95% White.

    • “According to most sources, Maine is almost 95% White.”

      And has an issue with methamphetamine addiction in the less-prosperous neighborhoods, as well.

      That impacts all states, no matter the demographic ratios…

      • Now include gang affiliation in the analysis. It’s uncomfortable to admit but race and culture do have parts to observe. The question is more whether it is genetic, cultural, or a mix than if groups outside of Asian or non Hispanic White have higher violent crime rates. But try to research that and see your funding evaporate.

        • talk about an “inconvenient truth”….more blacks equal more crime…less blacks equal less crime…you can make all the excuses you want…but it’s the simple reality….

        • Oversimplified but largely what can be observed. To break it down further black, male, age 14-24, single parent household, no father present, gang affiliation in family, gang membership in increasing relevance to increased crime.

      • 93.7 to 92.7 and was the group that saw the largest overall gain in numbers…….. I get what you were trying for but the numbers are not in favor of your assessment especially with a state that had it’s average age increase.

        • He’s blaming the lower crime rate on more whites. But as fewer whites as a percentage were in the area, crime dropped, the opposite of his “inconvenient truth”.

        • Fair enough, Maine Vermont, and New Hampshire are typically confounding variables but great sources for more nuanced data than their neighbors re demographics. At large for most states he is functionally correct but not for the reasons he asserts

      • jwtaylor, and you believe that? Just because it was in print? I don’t think that race really has much to do with the crime increase. But I don’t think that it has no correlation though. The major problem causing crime is the BREAK DOWN OF THE FAMILY UNIT.
        As I have said on a multitude of occasions, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

  5. It’s funny that people point towards loose gun laws causing crime, but Illinois has very strict gun laws and still has a major crime problem. Wonder what the difference is 😆

      • Inclusive of the Illinois government wacko’s policies of turning violent recidivist offenders back out on the streets as though a revolving door. Doubly okay if a gang member with a criminal history longer than your leg.

        Oft without filing the proper murder charges and more frequently still with zero bail ROR. Gotta pump those numbers up somehow.

  6. It is not about guns.

    Life in general is better when people (including elected leaders) follow the law. The US Constitution is the law. When you go against the law, quality of life goes down for everyone and fewer people are happy. Everything went sideways in 2020 because we had so many people acting against our laws. Primarily Democrats.

  7. Huh. And all yesterday morning I was told that Chicago (et al) violence was because of the crime, not the lack of 2A.

    Torries are desperate to back their bluecoats, I guess.

    • It is because of the crime. Criminals who run Chicago. Many of whom get elected. Why do ya think there is a lack of 2A?

      • The question I asked was whether the violence was a result of not enough cops or not enough 2A. I’m guessing Maine has been relatively static on police employment since before they allowed constitutional carry.

        This article supports the latter conclusion that there isn’ wasn’t enough 2A. As does the entire DGU discussion. Even better, we can go look at past comments and see where these same clowns infer all the time that crime rises when gun rights are curtailed, regardless of cops.

        • Anyone who has studied any sizeable amount of crime data after about 2008 or so and still espouses gun control as the solution is either unable to utilize critical thinking or is disingenuous at best and totalitarian leaning on average.

  8. gracie, the old adage ‘an armed society is a polite society’ was coined by Robert Heinlein, a noted science fiction author from the golden age of sci fi.
    gonna use a term know where it came from

      • I’ve owned at least a dozen over the years. Maybe more.

        One of the few holsters for IWB back n the day.

        Catch a lot of crap for saying so today – but they work, and it easy to find one to fit most handguns.

        No reholster option but it’s easy enough to remove, reholster and replace.

        Kinda like pocket carry.

        Allessi improved the clip with “Talon” holster. But they were pricey.

  10. I see that dacian, the DUNDERHEAD and MINOR Miner49er haven’t made an “appearance” yet and made bigger fools of themselves.

    • They may fear the racial component as if they are funded for posting it may jeopardize their check. With that said how was that storm over your way?

  11. HMMMMMM…Imagine that…Crime drops when EASY VICTIMS are scarce and not easily identified by the criminal elements….

  12. To combat MASS shootings in CANAD? Are byou out of your tiny minds?? When was the last MASS shooting in CANADA? Canad#’s gun control legislation has got sweet eff all to do with America nobodyn asks you to go to Canada in the first place an when you do you OBEY Canadian Law -period.
    Hundreds of AMERICANS go to Canada for hunting and take their HUNTING RIFLES with them. They declare them at the border and it’s up to the Canadian authorities to decide on their suitability. [Get into an argument here and you will be a barred entry] and YOU will NOT be allowed HANDGUNS or SEMI AUTOs that is for sure. The only legal HUNTING Rifles in Canada as far as I am aware are 5 shot max bolt action rifles of a suitable calibre A proper and proficient hunter does not need anything else anyway.

  14. More proof that when firearms ownership goes up so do the deaths because suicides are made easier and quicker and guns make suicide attempts more successful than other methods has verified by First Responders.

    Report: Maine’s proportion of firearm deaths by suicide is significantly higher than the nation
    Maine Public | By Patty Wight
    Published June 8, 2022 at 12:37 PM EDT

    The rate of firearm deaths that are suicides in Maine is significantly higher than the national average, according to a new report released by the Maine Center for Disease Control.

    Last year, 154 people in Maine died by firearms. One hundred thirty-two were suicides. That’s 86%, compared with the national rate of 54%.

    The report was recently sent to the Legislature’s Health and Human Services Committee under a new state law that requires the CDC to issue an annual firearm injury and death report. The agency says that 12% of firearm deaths in Maine are homicides and 2% are accidental.

    • and they ignore that suicide is a mental health issue not a firearm issue. The suicide rate did not go up ’cause guns, it went up because mental health issue increased.

      You don’t get it, I know. But people don’t commit suicide because a method is available – no one suddenly says one day “Oh look, a gun, I guess that means I must commit suicide because the gun is making me do it.” like you want to pretend.

      • More typically trauma, late stage cancer, loss of wife/family in advanced age, and divorce tend to be more causal than firearm ownership. Rope, trains, bridges, opiates, and snowbanks are not particularly difficult to find in New England after all.

        • The drug overdose death rate (which includes suicides) for Maine is 40 (rounded) per 100,000

          The firearm death rate (which includes suicides) in Maine is 11 (rounded) per 100,000.

          Almost 70 % of communities in Maine do not have enough mental health providers to serve residents as required by federal guidelines. Yet, the number of people with severe mental health issues continues to steadily increase in Maine with fewer and fewer receiving treatment from the mental health providers that are available and as those numbers have gone up the number of suicides has increased. A suicide person in Maine is ~30 times more likely to choose a method other than firearm even if a firearm is available.

          Maine doesn’t have a gun problem for suicides, it has a mental health problem for suicides.

      • Wrong Booger Brain, more than one study proved it was the access to firearms that increased the suicide rate especially among teenagers.

        And according to this Stanford University Study:

        Handgun ownership associated with much higher suicide risk
        share
        Men who own handguns are eight times more likely to die of gun suicides than men who don’t own handguns, and women who own handguns are 35 times more likely than women who don’t.

        And Booger Brain I do not want to here that big yap of yours screaming “Its been debunked because I do not want to be confused with the facts”

        https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/handgun-ownership-associated-with-much-higher-suicide-risk.html

        • @dacian

          “Wrong Booger Brain, more than one study proved it was the access to firearms that increased the suicide rate especially among teenagers.”

          No, it hasn’t. There has been no such study that “proved” what you claim. Even your linked study from stanford is a false logic ‘correlation = causation’ study. Once again, because obviously you don’t understand what you read, ‘correlation’ DOES NOT EQUAL ‘causation’

        • dacian, the DUNDERHEAD, More of your “studies”? Don’t you ever tire of citing “studies” that start out with a conclusion and then go about proving the conclusions with false statistics modified to fit the conclusion?

      • Just don’t mention the suicide rate in Japan. He’ll say it’s unpossible without guns.

    • dacian, the DUNDERHEAD. So you think (sic, LOL) that because someone owns a gun, he/she is prone to suicide? That 86% of the people who died with a firearm, committed suicide, is a ridiculous reason to ban firearms. If someone is bent on killing themselves, a gun is only one way that they can do it.
      Try getting your head out of your posterior?

  15. Seriously question dacian and Albert,
    Here in the United States we have 100k deaths from fentanyl and meth a year. The equivalent of an airliner a day crashing and burning and killing everyone on board. Why do you give lawful gun owners the same tired BS we hear from the MSM? 300 lost souls every day…
    Go away!

    • little will change in Maine…we’re talking about people who know how to behave themselves..

  20. I’ve been to Maine. The only thing they have to worry about is an angry moose on the loose. Besides, no ni**ers up there, so no bloody streets. They are the problem, not guns.

  21. The gun civilized the west! And all others that adopted it!

  22. From Maine. Constitutional carry had nothing to do with the drop in crime. The drop in crime came because we the people of Maine elected all the bleeping criminals to state and federal office. ;(

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