Despite the so-called “Trump slump” gun sales have remained strong since the 45th president was inaugurated. Through the end of May, 2018 is on pace to be the second highest sales year on record.

NICS checks through May of 2018 are 97% of those of 2016 when sales were high in expectation of a Clinton presidency. Political and gun industry writers — and those who are both — have speculated that politics have been the major driver of guns sales for the last decade. But the latest Rassmussen poll shows evidence of a deeper reason people are appreciating the need for armed self defense.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say it’s likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, with 11% who say it’s Very Likely. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% consider a second civil war unlikely, but that includes only 29% who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Democrats (37%) are more fearful than Republicans (32%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (26%) that a second civil war is at hand.

But 59% of all voters are concerned that those opposed to President Trump’s policies will resort to violence, with 33% who are Very Concerned. This compares to 53% and 28% respectively in the spring of Obama’s second year in office. Thirty-seven percent (37%) don’t share that concern, including 16% who are Not At All Concerned.

If you’re concerned that a second civil war in the United States is a possibility, you would want to have the ability to defend yourself and your family. And many of those in power who see a trend like that may want to limit that ability.

Most constitutionalists, Second Amendment supporters, and Trump supporters (with lots of overlap there) already see the sometimes violent opposition of leftists, progressives, or socialists — take your pick of titles there — to civilian gun ownership. On the other hand, many Clinton and Sanders supporters now see a significant reason to be armed themselves.

The Rassmussen poll shows 37% of Democrats are fearful, while only 32% of Republicans say they are. The smallest number of those who are concerned is Independents at 28%.

Thirty-one percent of the electorate is a huge number to admit that they think civil war is either likely or very likely. I don’t count my self among that number.

But the possibility of armed conflict in the United States is still a reality. An interesting article at medium.com puts the chances of violence in the US during any lifetime at 37%.

Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

The U.S. has been one of the most politically stable places on the planet. The chances of conflict are higher almost anywhere else in the world. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen here. And if you’re one of those who believe civil war is likely within the next five years, why wouldn’t you want to own an AR-15, a pistol or two, and plenty of ammunition?

©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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59 COMMENTS

      • The NRA clearly did it. With a high capacity bump stock. In the conservatory. Can you prove me wrong?

        We need a ban now on…(spins wheel on gun control propositions)… Steel cased ammunition! And (spins wheel again)… The Mossberg shockwave thingy! Clearly both weapons of war, unfit for a genteel society!

      • The good news :

        A shotgun was used, *not* an AR-pattern weapon.

        Shooter in custody, a 20 year-old white male…

    • Is this newspaper so anti gun that they have no armed guards, like most large business buildings????

    • Maryland is worse than DC when it comes to gun control. Took me 10 weeks to get FOID when i was living there some years back. Easier to get a gun in DC than Maryland.
      It is gun controller’s heaven. Yet it has more murder per capita than Virginia.

      Four people dead in one event is probably going to get 100x the coverage of the vastly higher number of people killed in Baltimore any week

    • It scores as just left of center with high truth and facts content, according to people on a FB gun group I belong to.

    • “LEFT-CENTER BIAS These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.”
      Source: mediabiasfactcheck.com
      re: capitalgazette.com

  2. Bought a gun today. I believe civil unrest is a brewing. The natives are restless. Oh yeah murder in Maryland…

    • Some sort of serious societal trouble seems to be brewing. It might be civil unrest, economic collapse, peak oil, inflation, deflation, pandemic, or something else. They prudent see danger at a distance, and try to at least get somewhat prepared.

      • “Some sort of serious societal trouble seems to be brewing.”

        Yes. You are living the results of three generations of children raised to remain childrenl; to have no coping skills for adversity; who were taught to believe they should have no frustrations; tutored to view the world as a place where there are no obstacles; to insist everyone defer to them.

        What would you expect?

  3. It would have been interesting if the “statistics” were refined to compare conditions that led to the two previous revolts, and then compare both to today. Put a 10yr prelude of conditions on all three cases. Yes, the “overall” likelihood may be minuscule, but what is the likelihood when comparing precipitating conditions?

    • I don’t think “the “overall” likelihood may be minuscule,“ Let’s run the numbers.
      Jamestown established 1607.
      New York from the Dutch in the 1660’s.
      Pennsylvania in 1680. So by 1680, that part of the continent was under British rule.
      From then (1680) to now(2018) is 338 years.
      How many changes in the form of government in that time? 2. The Revolutionary War and the Civil War.
      So, 2/338=.005917 or .5917% for a revolution in any given year.
      For No Revolution in any given year it’s 1-.005915= .9941 or 99.41% chance for no revolution in any given year.
      The average expected life span for an American is what, 78 years?
      So, in our life time, that’s (.9941)X10^78=.6294 or 62.94% chance of no revolution. Round that to 63%.
      That leaves 100%-63%=37% chance that a revolution WILL happen in our life time.
      True, this is spit-balling, but I don’t consider that minuscule

      • “Miniscule” is calculating likelihood of civil war by including all the history, and all the conditions. If I got it right, that put the likelihood at a minuscule probability of civil war happening in any given year. My point was that comparing precursor conditions of the first two revolutions, would drive the likelihood of another quite high.

  4. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, if you’re a loony lefty you fear civil war from the warlike gun owners (Who are by far the most peaceful and least likely to commit crimes let alone go full tilt Rambo) and so by constantly implying you will take away the citizens self protection devices by force, you alarm and arouse an otherwise peaceful group to the point where civil war may be inescapable. Besides most of us are too busy actually working and trying to build a better life for ourselves and our kids to go to war with our neighbors, can we do it on a weekend, pencil it in for like March of next year, 48 hours should be enough and then we can get back to work Monday morning.

  5. I think most people are getting their firearms information off of the internet. There are many channels we can get good positive information about Firearms. I think that’s what a growth is coming from.
    People don’t believe the fake news.

  6. I purchased another gun yesterday; but it had nothing to do with some unlikely civil war.

    If you want to feel tension, go to the third and fourth tier cities in Rural China, or pretty much anywhere outside of the Han enclaves in Xinjiang (an occupied province of PRC). The civil war talk here is nothing more than the “Militia” talk in the Clinton years.

  7. These types of incidents dont happen in the rest of the world on a daily basis.

    Europe does not have this problem.
    Canada does not have this problem.
    Japan does not have this problem.
    Australia doesnt have this problem and stopped having this problem when prime minister john howard saved australia turning it into one of the most free prosperous nations in the world.

    Why do you nutcases consider countries that have improved national healthcare, lack of homelessness and poverty, more personal freedoms, strong economy, low crime and quality of life to be fascist?

    The people of these civilized countries dont have to fear going to school, work or their place of business without the fear of the day being possibly their last day on earth.

    You value your sickness of a “right” more than your friends and loved ones.

    Im sure you people would be singing another tune if was your family members or best friend that suffered at the hands of some gun-obsessed maniac.

    I lost friends to senseless violence involving firearms. I still have not forgotten the fact I lost a HS penpal to a Gun-rights maniac who was also a known devout racist and also suffered mental illness who attacked at a school back in 2005.

    I lost a another friend to “pro second admendment” supporters who killed him over some country music CDs they tried to steal from his vehicle and they were also known to be drug addicts.

    And my former county lost a kind-heart woman who helped the community only to be killed by her husband who shot her dead over and argument he started and caused and he was a known domestic abuser and he was still allowed to own a weapon.

    We tried to pass sensible laws to prevent these types of people from owning weapons but you prevented us from doing so while accusing of us freedom loving real americans of doing sick things you fascists have been doing the whole time.

      • Cisco ought to blame the left wing politicians for death he/she mentions (makes up), the data show that they with virtual certainty were committed by released criminals.

        You are ten times as likely to know someone who was not murdered because a gun prevented a crime (2.5 million prevented by gun owners each year) a gun protected them than to know someone murdered with a gun.

        By the way cisco in the past has has claimed Australia and Japan did not ban most handguns — they sure did

    • Its Troll time with Tim the troll man Taylor!!

      humm cut and paste comments again???

      love the “I kind of know someone that knows someones roommate that was????”

      yep no direct connection and no incident cited??

    • Cisco/aka whatever name you pick today after your claims as “cisco” got debunked by the facts.

      Europe has what five times as many very large mass murders of 50 or more than the US has had the past five years?

      Japan has MORE violent death per capita. You have aggregated suicide in all the time, yet you don’t count suicide with any non gun means as a negative???

      And Australia? it is a slam dunk proof gun control does more harm than good. They decreased murder by 42% since their 1990’s peak — and yet the US murder rate declined 55% since its 1990’s peak as the US increased guns.

    • somebody obviously forgot to take their medicine today…

      thats the only valid reply to this nutjob

      i would argue the facts with him but as as longwinded as he is he hasnt presented any yet

      with as many words as he strung together there one would think that he would have *accidentally* stated one measely fact

      like what they say about if you put enough monkeys in enough rooms with enough typewriters eventually one of them will type on of the great books…

      everything one needs to know about this nutjob one can glean from his screen name

      like none of us would troll a pro choice blog with a screen name like “allfuckinpeoplethatareprochoicearereallyjustbabykillingmotherfuckersandshouldrotinhellforalleternity” because we are all ten times as smart as we need to be to understand that if we did that we would not only make an abject fool of ourself but we would also waste everybodys time not make a valid point and not change anybodys mind

    • “These types of incidents dont happen in the rest of the world on a daily basis.”

      Thats because the governments of these countries have a monopoly on 6.5 CM. It hangs like The Sword of Damocles over every man, woman, and child. On Feb 15, 2013, Russia fired a 6.5 CM round over their old nuclear test range in Chelyabinsk as a demonstration to the rest of Europe…. The 6.5 CM demonstration got out of hand and there were over 7,200 damaged buildings, a collapsed factory roof, uncountable shattered windows, and 1,491 injuries. Putin has remained the unchallenged dictator of Russia ever since and has been able to keep order in the border countries. Other Eropean countries were quick to follow suit.

    • Over 85% of those that commit mass murder consider themselves politically left leaning.
      Over 95% of people in prison for violent crime, consider themselves left or very left.
      Those are not just numbers on the internet, they are FBI statistics.

  8. “59% of all voters are concerned that those opposed to President Trump’s policies will resort to violence…”

    Well, duh! They resorted to violence on election night 11/8/2016 in several cities, with the occasional skirmish ever since.

    Civil war akin to 1861? I don’t see that happening. But riots and other violent outbreaks initiated by the spoiled babies of the left will continue, in large cities populated by generations of entitled “Americans” who were never taught how to behave.

    I’m thankful to live far enough from those socialist cesspools that the bloodshed is unlikely to affect me and mine directly. But I’m still keeping my power dry.

  9. When I hear the sales pitch “we have to have a serious conversation about gun control”, I simply can’t resist.

  10. i’m sorry but anyone who ACTUALLY thinks we are going to have another civil war…is just stupid. its just russian bot trolling. wise up people.

    • Ironicatbest would agree. The likely hood of another civil war is as unlikely as ironicatbest being reincarnated into a dog killing law enforcement officer

  11. Most of us who own firearms don’t really expect any sort of civil war, but the likely hood of increased incivility from the political left is certainly far more likely than times past. Still, on a personal level since I live in a fairly conservative area and do not advertise my political beliefs on my car or in my yard, so I am unlikely to be personally targeted. I think lots of other bad things are far more likely, but I put the likely hood of the worst of those at less than 10% over a 10 year period.

    Too many people are all gloom and doom. The world is going to end, just not anytime soon!

      • If we had Hillary as president, yeah that would be a major step toward Valenzuela, but she wasn’t. The left is losing ground in this country, that is why so many of them are losing their minds. I refuse to discuss what I might do if the left managed to install a communist president for life like Chavez, but I wouldn’t be sitting around the house waiting for someone to fix it.

  12. “… why wouldn’t you want to own an AR-15, a pistol or two, and plenty of ammunition?”

    I would call that inadequate: better to own two or three AR-15s, five or six pistols, and 4,000 rounds of ammunition!

      • Maybe what was unsaid was 4,000 rounds for each piece. Could be. Maybe. Additionally, maybe sales are so strong because there are so many neat new models of firearms coming out, not to mention the acquisition of those on old want lists that are stumbled across.

  14. If you’re concerned that a second civil war in the United States is a possibility, you would want to have the ability to properly fulfill ones role in such.

  15. “And if you’re one of those who believe civil war is likely within the next five years, why wouldn’t you want to own an AR-15, a pistol or two, and plenty of ammunition?”

    I don’t believe it’s likely for the simple reason that the two sides don’t occupy easily defined, separate and distinct geographical areas as was the case when the North and the South went at it.

    Liberals mostly inhabit the large cities and conservatives mostly inhabit the areas which are considered suburbs and “the country” in between them. That leaves the liberals both isolated and surrounded and the conservatives spread pretty thin.

    I do believe that substantial civil unrest is both possible and probably already taking place on the margins of those two areas. But that’s not civil war.

    About preparedness, however, already done that in spades.

  16. I am old enough to remember the polarization in this country in the 1960s and 1970s. Mass demonstrations that invariably turned violent, race riots, widespread disrespect of law enforcement, bombings all over the country, bank robberies to generate funds for revolutionary activities and shootouts. All of that did not bring a civil war. The political/cultural climate in this country today is decidedly unpleasant, it does not come close to the turbulence we endured 50 years ago.

    • ” The political/cultural climate in this country today is decidedly unpleasant, it does not come close to the turbulence we endured 50 years ago.”

      The 800 pound gorilla in the room being: “Yet”

      • What we may be overlooking here is the fact that the people protesting in the 60’s era were fighting the mostly conservative power structure. To a great degree now, they ARE the power structure, which tips the balance decidedly in the direction of violence, IMO.

  17. A second civil war? I remain dubious about that. A revolution, well, that’s already happening, along with an ongoing slow coup d’etat. If and when the coup fails, the streets will be deadly places to be.

    We will need a counter-revolution to set everything to rights.

  18. Count me in as one of the 31%, and 3% for that matter. I honestly believe we will see a full blown civil war in this country within the next 10-20 years, likely centered around guns, among several other issues. It probably won’t be an open war between the states, but given certain scenarios that’s still possibility as well. If it kicks off while Trump is in office, all the better. Get it out of the way now while we have the momentum and president on our side. I don’t just say this because I’ve been listening to all the militias over the past 20 years, but due to my knowledge and experience with human nature, and the US political system. We have two polar opposite political factions in this country, who consider eachother the honest to god enemy. Think about it this way, if the US were attacked again tomorrow by a foreign adversary, you think the left would support Trump and the military to fight the foreign aggressive? Hell to the Fuck no. They’d openly side with the enemy. They already are subtly siding with Muslim extremists. The left is absolutely at war with America and wants to see it destroyed. That kindve political movement cannot last peacefully along side a patriotic conservative one. Red and blue states are already like literal different countries. Different courts rule in completely different manners. Every aspect of government is different along red and blue lines. Really, what it kindve looks like is Europe in 1914. At some point, something’s gotta give. This fights been a long time coming, and unfortunately, is garunteed to happen.

  19. “But 59% of all voters are concerned that those opposed to President Trump’s policies will resort to violence…”
    Uhh…the anti-Trump crybabies have already turned violent. With the support of schools, universities, media, police and politicians.

  20. I believe that we’re headed for widespread civil unrest, just short of a for-real civil war, but we could see significant domestic terrorism ala the Weather Underground type of crap.

    Here’s the deal, folks: When one looks back in the 20th century in the US, we see three phrases of the political left and their violence:

    1. The “old” or “classic” left. These were the clowns like labor unions perps who used dynamite bombings to terrorist politicians, employers and the press. The press is squawking about this shooting yesterday, but they’ll get real quiet when someone brings up the dynamite bombing of the Los Angeles Times offices in 1910 by a couple of union ironworkers. 21 were killed, many more injured. There were all manner of bombings and shootings by union hacks from 1890 up to WWII. When I was at gunsmithing school in Trinidad, I spent some time visiting all the big “union history” sites in the area. The mythology of the unions is simply out of this world – when the truth is that most of the violence from unions was inspired by hard-core leftist tactics and infiltration by anarchists and communists.

    The “old left” ideas ran until about the JFK/RFK killings. I don’t think we’re going to see their like again – mostly because most of the left today don’t want to do anything that could so much as cause them to get a hangnail. In the first half of the 20th century, there were plenty of rough men with practical skills in the hard left movement.

    2. Then we have the “new left” – who started to realize, post-’56, that the USSR (their commie nirvana) was a sham. The old left also realized that the economic predictions or Marx & Engels never came true (despite their assertions of communism/socialism being ‘scientific’) and that liberal democracies with capitalistic economies were doing just fine, thank you.

    The new left started agitating on all manner of social issues, in particular racial issues and feminism as the leftists burrowed into academic organizations. But along the way, there were notable leftists & groups who were still leaving bombs across the landscape – the Weather Underground, the Unabomber, MOVE, et al.

    But the new left cottoned on to one important detail: taking over academia would allow them to train and indoctrinate legions of minions and useful idiots for their cause. This, they did, especially in liberal arts and humanities departments.

    3. In the last 20 years, we’ve seen the “new left” morph into a bunch of Maoists. What we’re seeing today in SJW antics is straight out of the “Cultural Revolution” – especially out of the feminists. The only thing the feminists aren’t doing is dressing in lumpy military garb and waving little red books in the air. Their aim has been to intimidate and hector reasonable people out of entire institutions, and to grab the levers of power in a “long march” through the institutions and bureaucracies of power, which would enable them to force their policies on people without unsanctioned violence.

    Along comes Trump, and he completely upsets and derails their plans. They’re howling like ruptured ducks about this – but, true to form, being leftists, they’re quick to resort to violence to effect their change. But compared to past versions of the left, now we have a bunch of soyboys and hairy harridans trying to bum-rush anyone who speaks out against them – but they have little experience with explosives or bombs. They’re going to try to instigate violence and rope in the police to do their bidding.

    The parasites of the left have been inflicting themselves on American society for over 100 years. We’ve dealt with them before, we’ll have to deal with them again.

  21. It will be a war of “conservatives” against the mixture of leftists, moslems and some minorities. Moslems started holding hands with the left a few years ago and they are growing more dangerous by the minute. Black Lives Splatter is also in Islam’s pocket. All of this is an extremely dangerous situation. Think I’m paranoid? Just watch.

  22. I wish y’all would remember that the dems aren’t leftists, we hate them too. And keep in mind that us anarchists love guns and work in the same mills, shipyards, plants, and warehouses as you, I honestly believe there is very little separating us.

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