woman purse off-body gun carry
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Overall, [the Crime Prevention Research Center’s John R. Lott] said, there are 21.8 million permits issued. That’s a decrease of 0.5% from last year.

But that’s not bad news for proponents of the Second Amendment and concealed carry laws.

Lott explained that the leveling off of permits is likely due to the surge in states that now allow citizens to carry their handguns without a permit. The growth of so-called constitutional carry states has reached 27 and is the biggest story in the gun world.

“In other words, people in those 27 states are allowed to carry concealed handguns without permits, representing 65% of the land in the country and 44% of the population in 2022,” his report said. “It is clear that more people are legally carrying.”

“What does this mean in practice? It means that in most places where people are allowed to carry a concealed handgun, there will be someone carrying a concealed handgun. If the probability that any one person has a concealed handgun permit is 5.4%, in a room with 10 people, the probability that at least one person will have a permitted concealed handgun is 43%. In a room with 20 people, that probability goes up to 67%. With 40, that probability rises to 89%,” the report said.

— Paul Bedard in Explosion of concealed handguns means someone nearby is carrying

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

90 COMMENTS

  1. Why on earth does the illustration picture for this article show a 1911 being drawn with the hammer down?

    • I came here to say the same, it also appears to be an empty hole where the slide release lever pin should be sticking out of. Oh well, they still make a pretty handy hammer.

    • Haven’t you seen a movie? You pull the gun on someone when you mean business. Then you dramatically cock the hammer when you really mean business.

      • Don’t forget turning the gat sideways to telegraph your intent that now you really mean business.

  2. Yep. Legal or not. “Constitutional carry” or not. We are awash with gats. Merry Christmas!🙄🙃

    • Been that way for 20 years. Criminals have been doing it for decades. It’s just now as law abiding citizens are doing it, in ever increasing numbers. That it’s being used as a weapon against Freedom. Just another sign of how FKD Up Liberalism/Progressivism is. Just look at the numerous major cities all over the nation. Where it has become necessary for businesses to lock products behind plexiglass in order to prevent theft. While Liberal/Progressive D.A.’s are refusing to prosecute the theft of those products. In some cases as the Democrats in control pass laws making the theft of up to $950. A non prosecutable crime. You deserve the tyrants and tyranny…You allow.

      • What about us here in CA, where conservatives are the majority across most of the state, voter fraud by Dems has been proven several times, and the courts are stacked against honest elections? We didn’t “allow” this, D…and certainly don’t “deserve” it.

        • You are allowing ‘It’… Until those so called Conservatives decide to stop ‘It’. It will continue and whining about ‘It’ on the interweb, won’t change ‘It’.

        • I won’t get into my spiel. The fact is, you can’t win every battle, no matter how much you try or want to. There is, however, such a thing as a tactical retreat.

        • If they could “FIND” 82,000,000 votes for a braindead old shit that ran his campaign on bullshit and lies from his basement while the incumbent got more votes than any other incumbent in the History of the world, they can certainly continue to hold Kommiefornia (and NY for that matter)… Good luck with your quest but, I’m afraid an “E” for effort is all you’re going to get…

      • I for one am fed up with pompous democRats telling people what they can and cannot do. So fed up I’ll tell democRats what they can do starting with Go To Hell.

      • darkman and dude. You’re siding with the gun grabbers. You are saying that constitutional rights are dependent on your zip code just as newsome and biden claim.

        We either have rights in our entire nation or we do not. Running to a ‘free’ state only gives victory to the enemy.

        • There’s a massive difference between running away and a tactical retreat. Do we take our country back by focusing resources in California to flip the governorship and legislature? Or, do we retake the country by focusing on flipping a handful of purple states and enacting strict voting reforms in those states? One is a pipe dream. One is realistic. Choose carefully.

        • Dude. Break CA and you break gun control efforts for the next hundred years. Maybe for good. All those other battles mean nothing if you lose the war.

        • +1

          jwm is correct. I’m staying and fighting to liberate my state from the tyrants who have acted to corrupt it.

        • Bruen, more pending. Obviously don’t focus all efforts and resources on the commie states as “free” states do not sell suppressors out of vending machines yet but it gets a lot easier to imagine the more restrictions are chipped away at the strongholds.

        • They are for those people who refuse to stand Up for their Rights. Regardless of their reasoning/excuses.

        • So the plan isn’t to protect the Supreme Court majority, but to break California? What’s the strategy for that? More votes next time? Haz says voter fraud is an issue there, and it doesn’t matter how many votes there are.

          For the record, I’m not saying you guys should move. It’s so bad in California, that people are already leaving in droves. What I’m saying is that people should consider going somewhere their vote counts. People think about cost of living, taxes, and schools. Most don’t consider making an effort to alter the voting demographics.

          Democrats are already playing this game with the open border policies. Do Republicans impeach Mayorkas or Biden for that? No. They make an unprecedented move to take out one of their own so they get to feel righteous for 2 seconds. What kind of strategy is that? We need a viable strategy. I’m open to suggestions.

        • Most don’t consider making an effort to alter the voting demographics.

          Unless you are a far-left progressive freak from a deep blue state who thinks the rest of the country needs to share in your enlightenment and good fortune, then you move to a moderate red or left leaning purple state and work to change them to blue votes…

          As far as taking out one of their own, the expulsion of Santos was a BIG fucking mistake, dude was “indicted” NOT convicted and now they.ve not only reduced an already slim majority with no guarantee that another Republican will fill the vacancy but they’ve opened a whole new can of worms for the left to

        • I figured Santos could be like our own Gov black face/Klan mask Northam. Remember how ready he was to appease the left after his racist past was made public? I assumed Santos would be a very reliable vote after his stuff came out since he’d be on thin ice. He’s probably already better than half the Republicans in the House, not that it’s a high bar.

    • “We are awash with gats.”

      That’s what the anti-gun say.

      In reality we are not “awash with” guns. If we were ‘awash with’ guns it would be overtly common everyday for the country to be filled, covered, or completely overrun by people carrying/owning/posessing guns and that simply is not reality. Even in states that do not require a permit for a law abiding person to ‘posess’ a firearm, collectively, it works out, collective population wise, to only about 1 in 8 that ‘posess’.

      • .40 cal Booger,

        In my state the numbers are very interesting: about 1 in every 7 adults age 21 or over have a concealed carry license. And while I am in a “shall-issue” state, the process is somewhat difficult and somewhat expensive. I am going to take that to mean that people who go through the trouble to get their license are fairly serious about it and committed to it.

        With the above in mind, I believe that a reasonable estimate is half of those licensees are armed in public when they go out. If that is correct, then 1 out of every 14 adults (age 21 or over, about 7% of the over-21 population) in public in my state are armed. That is fairly profound in my opinion.

  3. “Lott explained that the leveling off of permits is likely due to the surge in states that now allow citizens to carry their handguns without a permit.”

    The anti-gun would use that ‘leveling off of permits’ to claim their ‘programs’ are working. But of course they always leave out the context and data that doesn’t suit their narrative and that context and data is that permits are ‘leveling off’ because more law abiding people are actually carrying due to “the surge in states that now allow citizens to carry their handguns without a permit.”

    • Louisiana is not CC presently; however, the new Rep Governor has said he will sign a CC bill if placed on his desk. With a super majority in both houses the chances of CC becoming a reality is now highly possible in the 2024 session. Also in Louisiana honorably discharged veterans be they federal or state and any active duty military person assigned to duty in the state can carry without a permit. Veterans not required to have a permit is contributing to decreases and many are not renewing their old permits. The DMV will show “Veteran” on any driver’s license or ID, if the vet shows proof of service via a DD Form 214 or VA id card. Simple and easy. Plus Louisiana also has “Louisiana Wallet” which is a simple app placed on an i-phone that shows driver’s license, carry permit, medical records and hunting licenses. Free and easily installed.

      • Why anyone would willingly install a gov-controlled app on their phone and let themselves be tracked by it is beyond me.

        • Some people must like the convenience.
          Very stupid in my opinion.
          I read the list of things the app wants access to. Most want into just about everything. Like why would a simple chess game need in my contacts or email?
          I know why and I just say NO.

        • Haz as Tired just stated below, I use it for convenience. The app does not ask for any information that the state does not already have. However, I had not thought about the “tracking” possibilities, but I cannot imagine why the state would want to track me. I am 81 and don’t drive due to poor eyesight thus in my case I am easily located usually at home. Of course, I realize that apps of this nature may not be for everyone.

        • Like why would a simple chess game need in my contacts or email?

          Or access to your camera or your location?

  4. Uhhhmmm, I dare say that anyplace with strict gun control laws, someone near you is carrying. The problem is, exactly WHO is carrying. To state bluntly what most of us already know, the criminals don’t give a flip about the law. Criminals are armed, honest citizens are not. That is a huge problem! I’ll never forget the night in Manhattan, I stopped at a McD to get a couple cheeseburgers to tide me over until I reached civilized territories. Young fella ahead of me trying to get money out of his pocket (somewhere down around his knees) and fumbled his pistol. My butt hole puckered up, because he didn’t fit any demographic that might be legally armed in NYC. Luckily, he scooped the pistol up, dropped it into another pocket, paid for his food, and left.

    • Oh yeah – three mornings later, I decided to eat breakfast in some tiny town, in the middle of Texas. 1/3 of the people in the restaurant had pistols on their hips, and at least half of the vehicles in the lot had shotguns or rifles visible in them. No pucker factor whatsoever. None, zip, zilch, nada. Honest people going about their business who happen to be armed is simply not noteworthy.

      • Mehhh, NY pizza is over rated. Maybe not as over rated as McD, or maybe it is. But it wasn’t a choice – McD was in front of me, I dashed in, bought a couple burgers, and dashed out, and pointed my truck west. I didn’t want to spend any more time in NY than absolutely necessary. With more leisure, I may have searched out a Kosher deli, or a Greek restaurant, where I would have found real food.

        • “…I may have searched out a Kosher deli, or a Greek restaurant…”

          If you like hearing a faint “meow” coming from the back of the Greek joint…

    • Paul, the fellow in MickyD may well have been an honest citizen going about his business, who happened to be armed. If I lived in NYC I’d be carrying too.

  5. A lot of guns in sock & underwear drawers.
    Otherwise we would have a rash of abrupt endings to violent crimes and attempted mass shooting.

    • People often overlook this fact. A lady told me she got a gunm and a carry permit. Then she promptly stored the gunm. It’s been there ever since. Some people also got a carry permit in case they felt the need to carry on a rare occasion.

  6. I always assume that anyone could be armed. Had to take a couple of firearms off of grandma.
    Here’s an example, although I didn’t confiscate the weapons myself.

    I’m on the 23:00-0700 shift in dispatch. (Still in the academy at the time.) Phone rings. Me, “911 what’s your emergency?” It’s Miss Dora Mae Cunningham, a frequent flyer. She ran a boarding house on the west side of the county. Her, “If somebody is breaking into your house can you shoots them?” Her vernacular, not mine. Me, “Miss Dora Mae, Florida has the castle doctrine. That means you can assume that anyone breaking into your house means you harm and you can defend yourself.” Her, “Does that mean I can shoots them?” Me, “The short answer is,Yes.” Her, “Hold on.” Sounds of the phone being laid down, line still open. Then, bang! bang, bang, bang! Me, “Holy shit!” She didn’t say it was in progress. She made it sound like an academic question. I’m yelling into the PX for her and dispatching units. After a few seconds she picks the PX up. Her, “You best send the ‘bambalance, I done shot him.” Me, are you sure?” Her, “Uh huh, he’s laying in the yard yelling, ‘I’s shot, I’s shot!’ It was a boarder that came home drunk and lost his key. He survived. Miss Dora Mae wasn’t charged, but she did agree to voluntarily surrender her Baby Browning.25. She passed away not long after. You can’t make this shit up.

    • Uh oh! My wife has a Baby Browning .25, maybe in the future I should refrain from coming home drunk! 🤣

    • — “The short answer is, Yes.” Her, “Hold on.” Sounds of the phone being laid down, line still open. Then, bang! bang, bang, bang! Me, “Holy shit!”

      — “You best send the ‘bambalance, I done shot him.”

      Best thing I’ve read on the internet all week! I’m glad I wasn’t drinking coffee or I would have choked to death!

  7. There is really a more important issue people need to address and that is collective security. People in communities need to establish their own local home guard organizations to protect each other from criminals, unconstitutional law enforcement, and invasion from outsiders. The old saying divide and conqueror still prevails and if you don’t have some sort of multi person group you can rely on in an emergency you really don’t stand much of a chance as they pick you off one by one. These groups would be solely for self-defense not offensive purposes.
    Given the threats we all face today it seems to me this is a wise course of action to be taken nation wide.

    • +1

      I’m on solid & friendly terms with both my neighbors on my left and my right. We’ve discussed guns and defense.

      Know your neighbors during the good times. You might end up relying on each other during the bad.

    • It’s always good to be on friendly terms with your neighbors, but that scenario is more or less important depending on where you live. Some of us are fortunate to live in the “normal” part of the country.

  8. The headline is just plain old common sense. Not to mention a big deterrant to criminals wanting to make new victims.

  9. In my state the number of permits is about 10x what it was pre-Bruen. I would add that those wishing to get a permit in formerly “may issue” states having already done so, probably also contributed to the decrease. The offset of “may issue” states becoming “shall issue” against the drop in renewals in CC states post-Bruen would be an interesting study.

  10. “The growth of so-called constitutional carry states has reached 27 and is the biggest story in the gun world.”

    No, the biggest story in the gun world is still the lunacy of the Democrat left with their non-stop efforts at gun control and 2A attacks to remove Constitutional rights from the American people. 27 states now allowing their citizens to carry without a permit is just the response to that. Something that likely would not have happened without the Democrats going crazy over guns. The way the left in this country handled Covid helped it get it going. They would have nothing to worry about if they would have just sat down and shut up like conservatives were told to do.

    But that isn’t even to mention the fact that a large number of criminals were carrying guns well before all that. Things like that can’t be addressed though.

    • OK, Secession is constitutional but, why should the majority of states secede to in order to form the same government that our founders created rather than forcing secession on those states that seek to subvert the constitution (e.g. CA & NY)? Can the “many states” vote to remove a state(s) from the union?

        • @VNVet69
          There is convention of states.

          Article V of the U.S. Constitution gives states the power to call a convention to propose amendments. It takes 34 states to call the convention and 38 to ratify any amendments that are proposed. Our convention would only allow the states to discuss amendments that, “limit the power and jurisdiction of the federal government, impose fiscal restraints, and place term limits on federal officials.”

          https://conventionofstates.com/

      • Secession is NOT “Constitutional”. I suppose the Supreme Court could make it so by a ruling or series of rulings but that has never happened. Where do you read in the Constitution that secession is available?
        Article and Section, please.

        A Constitutional Convention could facilitate a “National Divorce”, and it could facilitate many other things as well.

        • Tenth amendment. “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

  11. The clear takeaway from this article is that a 5.4% rate of carry is not enough to provide strong deterrence to persons planning a public criminal act.

    I consider a 10% carry rate (equals a 65% chance of at least one person carrying in a group of 10) to be a useful minimum level. A 20% carry rate (89% of a Dickens clone in a group of 10) provides strong functional deterrence…

  12. If and when criminals realize and understand the possibility that they will be confronted by an armed citizen, should they want to practice their trade, crime will definitely be reduced. This is totally against the philosophy of gun grabbers and officials in the BiDUMB administration.

    • Obviously we need to ban assault weapons like the AR15 to prevent this kind of mass shooting from ever happening again. I mean, isn’t it clear that the gun made him do it? Oh, wait, it was a knife? Fake news! Only guns kill people.

  14. People are still packing the CCW classes here in Florida. The “permitless carry” recently passed here is pretty weak tea -best to have the permit especially for the 1000′ foot from a school thing and no waiting period when purchasing.

  18. Sitting here reading this discussion and knowing all 4 adults in the house right now have a weapon either on their person, or within arms reach. Was down to the major ag supply store today and noticed about half of the people there were armed, and noticed a couple of the employees had suspicious bulges in the waistband of their trousers. Long ago developed the habit of paying attention to the little tells of bumps and bulges or slight movements of those who carry legally or not. Life in the big city and being a victim of a criminal can make you a bit more observant.
    I was down in Pensacola FL a couple weeks ago. Noticed a few more people than I used to see with a weapon. Same here in AL when we went permit less carry. Not a major increase, but enough that more observant folks would notice.

  19. I wish that I remember the location in the news blurb that I heard last week. “More ballots were cast than people living here” was the gist of it.
    For any of you who doubt it, False-a-fornia is a place where those who specify and purchase the voting machines determine the outcome of elections.
    No room for Argument.

    • “More ballots were cast than people living here”

      Happens more often and in more places than they care to admit…

  21. @Prndll
    “Our convention would only allow the states to discuss amendments that, “limit the power and jurisdiction of the federal government, impose fiscal restraints, and place term limits on federal officials.”

    A COS would be faced with so many opposing forces, it might not even be able to begin working on amendments. Then, the approved amendments would simply disappear in the rest of the
    process, which then turns power over to the same people the amendments are supposed to limit. The sitting government determines whether the individual states ratify amendments using another convention, or state legislatures (which are all controlled by the same people COS amendments are trying to limit). A COS is a start, not a ratification.

    A COS has not been called since the beginning of the nation. I Wonder why?

  22. I’m not a lawyer, and I don’t pretend to understand the labyrinth of laws that specify what I may do.
    I simply understand that when you steal the rights God gave me, tax me til I have to move to a poorer state, and BLAME ME for the Felonies committed by others; then I have a DUTY to “REPLY”!
    That reply is up to the individual…

  23. @VNVet69
    “Tenth amendment. “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” ”

    Civil War 2.0 put paid to the question. The constitutional issue did not go to the courts prior, nor afterward. Neither was there an amendment addressing the issue.

    The core document of the Constitution describes the process for creating new states, but nothing about withdrawing from the compact.

    • “The core document of the Constitution describes the process for creating new states, but nothing about withdrawing from the compact.”

      Precisely why the 10th amendment applies to and permits secession. What surprises me is the the founders didn’t foresee a time when there could be a need to withdraw statehood and create a process for it. Sort of like cutting out a cancer.

      • “What surprises me is the the founders didn’t foresee a time when there could be a need to withdraw statehood and create a process for it.”

        Likely they saw the futility of the dry run for the nation: Articles of Confederation. The fight to get the Confederation, and actually unite the new states into a nation led to the dissolution of that compact. Then, the founders went through tough times to create a mechanism that would result in a single nation. Not the kind of experiences where the founders would have been encouraged to also include a provision that would let states withdraw any time they got their panties in a twist.

        • The 10th amendment clearly states that those powers not granted to the feds nor denied to the states belong to the states, and then the people. That would include the power to sever the agreement.

          I’m not really talking about secession though, I’m talking about the opposite where the majority of states decide to kick another state out of the union. I realize it will never happen but it does seem there should be a process to achieve it should it become necessary.

  24. @VNVet69
    “I’m talking about the opposite where the majority of states decide to kick another state out of the union.”

    The powers reserved to the states (used to be States) again becomes the question. Those powers, like the issues of the Second Amendment only exist so far as courts have defined them. We can all have ideas about what powers and rights actually mean, but we cannot all have individual ideas that claim sovereign power under the 9th and 10th amendments, and take action to exercise them…that is anarchy. Thus, it remains to be determined if states have the power to formally recede from the union, or formally remove a state from the union.

    We do have docs from the founders regarding the danger of states to declare war on each other, either through militias, or economic pressure.

    • Oh yeah…lol
      Whole states boycotting:
      California – LA and Hollywood, New York – NYC, Illinois – Chicago

      How many of the regulars here on TTAG alone can quite Facebook/X? TTAG itself can’t even do that. Economic pressure? These places have a strangle hold on this country. That’s not to mention the Universities.

      There are HUGE dollars involved here. Just about every single thing purchased has a prop65 label attached somewhere.

      I see that happening for sure. People (you, me, us all) need to look in the mirror and make a meaningful purposeful decision. All else be damned.

  25. Your comment is awaiting moderation
    Oh yeah…lol
    Whole states boycotting:
    California – LA and Hollywood, New York – NYC, Illinois – Chicago

    How many of the regulars here on TTAG alone can quite Facebook/X? TTAG itself can’t even do that. Economic pressure? These places have a strangle hold on this country. That’s not to mention the Universities.

    There are HUGE dollars involved here. Just about every single thing purchased has a prop65 label attached somewhere.

    I see that happening for sure. People (you, me, us all) need to look in the mirror and make a meaningful purposeful decision. All else be damned.

  26. People who carry stop mass shootings less than 3% of the time and many even leave the scene when are armed and do nothing.

    Researcher John Lott falsely claims that two-thirds of peer-reviewed literature shows concealed carry laws reduce crime.
    Lott’s false claim relies on obsolete work and studies in which right-to-carry (RTC) laws are not the variables of interest.
    Most studies with a national scope published since 2005 find that RTC laws increase crime, particularly aggravated assaults. In short, more guns in public means more crime.

    https://www.gvpedia.org/gun-myths/more-guns-mean-less-crime/

    • dacian, the DUNDERHEAD, ya think it might be because the people who carry are not usually in a place to be able to stop the mass shooting. However where there was one, the mass shooting was stopped and in spite of your claim to the contrary, the good guy was unharmed.
      You allege that John Lott “falsely claims”. How about providing some real live proof.

      The studies you allude to are from cherry picked academia “studies”. The only places where there was an “increase in crime” where there are RTC laws was in DEMONcRAT run cites. And the aggravated assaults? Done with ILLEGALLY obtained guns.

      Let me put it is plain easy simple to understand language. You are a Leftist propagandist control freak.

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