Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a number of conversations about guns, gun rights, and gun restrictions. Invariably, I’ve found those with whom I was conversing to be misinformed on one or another detail and had formed their opinions based on this bad information. I’m going to kick off a mini series here in which I take some of the more egregious myths that are being propagated and expose them to the light of research and reason. The first such myth that I’d like to address is the one about how the number of people who own guns in the U.S. is on a decline . . .
One of the first techniques that political operators learn is the divide and conquer method or the “us versus them” approach. If you can get your prospective audience to identify with the “us”, you can usually get them to look down on the “thems”. One of the foundational principles of the the gun control movement is that the stronger gun laws favored by a sizable majority of Americans are being blocked by a small, but vocal minority. “Why,” they ask, “should we allow a small group of people to prevent anti-gun legislation that is supported by a clear majority of voters?”
When someone brings up the inconvenient fact that that gun sales have been running at record high levels for the last couple of years, they reply that it’s not due to new people buying their first gun. Rather, it’s because existing gun owners are simply adding to their collections. They support this contention with one recent poll showing the number of gun owners in America has sharply declined over the past decade or so.
In March of 2013, the New York Times trumpeted a four decade decline in gun ownership, citing the latest data from the 2012 General Social Survey (GSS) which is conducted every other year by the National Opinion Research Center. The poll takers asked if respondents “have in their home or garage any guns or revolvers.” When the GSS first asked about gun ownership back in 1973, the number of households that reported owning a gun stood at 49%. In 2012, that number had dropped to 34%.
Looks like a serious decline to me, but gun control advocates shouldn’t be popping champagne corks just yet. You see, according to the Gallup organization which has included a gun ownership question in their polls since 1960, the percentage of homes in which the owners admitted to having a gun has ranged from a high of 51% in 1993 to a low of 34% in 1998. As of the latest poll in 2012, reported gun ownership was at 43%.
Who is to be believed here? The GSS suggests that roughly one third of U.S. households own guns while Gallup puts the number at nearly half. To further confuse the issue is another inconvenient (for gun grabbers) fact that according to the FBI, the number of firearm background checks conducted during 2012 through the National Instant Criminal Check System (NICS) was 19% higher than 2011’s count. As for 2013, the number of checks conducted through the end of August 2013 had already reached 72% of the total number of checks conducted in 2012 meaning that 2013 is very likely to be another record year. Unfortunately, NICS checks aren’t specific enough for us to draw direct conclusions.
NICS data tracks the number of checks initiated, not the number of guns sold. In some cases, a customer may purchase more than one gun on a single NICS check. In other cases, no gun at all may be ultimately purchased. That said, I would suspect that the number of people who go through the hassle of a NICS check and then don’t buy a gun is probably a small one. We also know that most companies are experiencing record growth in firearm sales, so it’s reasonable to conclude that there certainly are a lot of new guns headed into the hands of Americans.
Given the variation in the statistics as well as the information from the FBI, many different conclusions can be drawn. Gun control advocates suggest that most of these new guns are being bought by existing gun owners who are simply adding to their collections. Gun rights proponents disagree. Unfortunately, there is no good way to get a solid answer on this topic, so we have to use some of that common sense the gun control people are always blathering on about. Consider the following:
- Given the current environment and concern about Government oversight, NSA spying, etc, I would suggest that if people are going to lie during a poll, they are more likely to say that they don’t own a gun when they do as opposed to saying that they do own a gun when they don’t. I would argue that the number of people who don’t fess up to owning a gun may very well result in a few percentage points of error in the poll.
- The results of the GSS and Gallup polls differ by nine points, which could be related to their respective polling methods. The GSS conducts all polls in face to face interviews while Gallup uses phone based ones. People who might already be reluctant to admit to owning a gun at all are likely to be even more reluctant to do it in a face-to-face situation.
- Gun sales are up and have been for a number of years. Certainly a good percentage of this increase is attributable to existing gun owners adding to their collections and the proposed anti-gun legislation in early 2013 certainly stoked the fires. On the other hand, the number of NRA instructors certified to teach the basic NRA classes has increased by nearly 66% over the past five years. Experienced gun owners adding to their collections generally don’t drive demand for introductory courses. New gun owners do.
So, where does that leave us? On the one hand, while the evidence that suggests gun ownership being on the rise is anecdotal, there is also a lack of unambiguous data to support the New York Times’ contention that ownership is on the decline. While the anti-gun crowd likes to spout the term, “Common Sense,” many of that persuasion repeatedly demonstrate a complete lack of it. Yes, there is one major poll that concludes that gun ownership is on the decline, but a second major poll sharply disagrees with that conclusion and the increases in NICS checks and number of certified NRA instructors certainly suggests a conclusion other than what the Times arrived at. So the next time, you hear someone talk about how gun owners are on the decline, you can show them how much of a low information voter they really are.
Visiting gun stores and ranges is pretty much the only reason I’d travel to the states on my own initiative. =D
I would have reported him just for calling a magazine a clip.
Industry seems to believe there are first time buyers out there. For example rifles such as the Axis and M&P sport seem to be aimed (if you’ll for give me) at entry level buyers.
The element of suprise, he thinks he can cheat on the three of us with his wife!
I don’t know about other places, but my LGS, which includes a range, has seen a huge uptick in new shooters. Many of them in the 18-30 or so age range. Many don’t own a firearm (either because they can’t afford it or they still live at home and their parents don’t want a firearm in the house), but they still love to come and rent a port and firearm for an hour to try something out. Some I think are there just because of Call of Duty, but there are also those who simply want to learn something new. They don’t really have any preconceived notions about firearms. They just see it as a new experience.
Number 4? I didn’t even know there was a 1. Cant be any worse then Top Shot I suppose.
I see many more newbies, either buying, renting, or training, at the ranges I frequent than I have in past years. My friends in other parts of the US say the same. Hardly scientific observations, and not in any way a random sample of ranges, but inconsistent with the idea that ownership is declining.
After Sandy hook, I couldn’t even get to the counter many times I went in to buy ammo, and I overheard many people asking newbie questions and for suggestions about what they should buy for either carry or home defense. If ownership is drastically declining, I’m not seeing it in my area.
Also remember that we don’t know how the guy was inquiring about these questions over the phone. Two people can ask exactly the same question and one can come off as sincere while the other comes off as being a creeper. I’m sure the fact that this guy is Lebanese, and probably has what the gun store owner thought of as a Middle Eastern accent, didn’t help to soothe any nerves. I mean, how many of you are going to feel comfortable with a Middle Eastern guy inquiring about how to illegally modify firearms given recent world events?
Gun ownership is sky rocketing. Reporting you own a gun is declining. This is not rocket science here.
Nobody wants to end up on a website that reports all the data like what happened in new york a few months ago.
Just looking at Illinois FOID registrations (in your earlier article) proves that the number of legal gun owners is ever increasing – even in a state where you have to jump through ridiculous hoops to exercise your constitutionally guaranteed right to own firearms.
IL FOID [Firearm Owner’s ID] Card Holders
Calendar year Active FOID Cards
2010 : 1,316,508
2011 : 1,395,114
2012 : 1,476,408
As of 09/06/13 : 1,633,039
Even if it is only a third of the population, that is not a “small minority.” Try dividing anything into thirds and tell me that it is no big deal.
Try the Wolfe Tones or the Irish Brigade; better message and more gun talk. Like “My Little Armalite.”
This website has turned into a complete joke. Everybody screams for their gun rights, so they can defend themselves and others should the time arise, even though half the people on here are nothing more than armchair operators who would cry, piss their pants, and then pass out if they were ever personally introduced to a firefight, but yet anytime a LEO uses a weapon against a someone in a dangerous situation, they get crucified by all the people on here who dont have a clue what its like to be put into any kind of life threatening situation
From a purely musical and non-political perspective, that song is garbage. Source: 15 years of piano lessons. Learn some more chords hippies.
Darned Flies!
She needed to be shot if you are going to pull that kind of bulls..t.How do they know there isn’t a car bomb attempt?what if she got through? I don’t care if she is depressed ,join the club lady.Lots of people are and they don’t do that.Check her medical records I’ll bet you’ll find she is on prescribed mood drugs,what do you wanna bet,but that info will be covered up cause drug companies don’t want that out!
This video made me nostalgic until I realized it was making fun of my past.
I see a problem coming down the pipe. There is no way another democrat can win anywhere except California, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island and they know it, but they are not afraid. That only tells us that they are going to win by fraud in every election. I wish we can head that off some how…
I’m a Marine, and I suck at interior decorating. ST speaks the truth.
actually, my daughters (8 and almost 6) would love the video. they both want .22 pistols for their birthday and my soon-to-be 6 yr old is begging me for a range membership . . . . .
“… which is why college administrators would rather your son, daughter, niece sister or brother be assaulted or shot to death than take concrete steps to secure the learning environment.”
Absolutely true. I remember many, many years back ASIS (security trade organization, for those who don’t know) published an issue of their mag devoted entirely to campus security. Aimed primarily at the campus security folks. Everything from locks and flashlights to bulletproof guard shacks.
As I cruised through life with kids and now grandkids on a variety of campuses I see a lot of the “easy” hardware illustrated in that issue from last decade in place now. But the procedures to use them properly? A gruesome joke to anyone with a physical security background. Using the stuff right is just too hard. Sad but true.
This is topic is very important to both sides. Growing the population that is involved in proper gun ownership is the long game required to continue winning the political battles.
As Breitbart used to say, culture is upstream of politics.
We have to win the culture, or all current wins in the courts and state houses and congressional chambers will set aside by a next generation that does not care. That means growing the legal gun owner population of enthusiasts.
That video is more than cliche, it’s a damned ministerial-show-level depiction of rural people.
The next generation will be educated online and will never have to step foot on campus, so campus carry is ultimately a temporary fix.
The education system in this country is digging it’s own grave as fast as it can. The first 2 years of college are squandered getting your GED (effectively). It takes $50,000 in debt just to get the level of education our grandfathers had when they quit school after the eighth grade. All that federal grant money has fattened up the calf (universities) at the expense of the student. Diminishing returns on escalating investments. You’re not considered an adult now until your 26, do you really think you’ll be retiring at 65? The state of physical protection of our students might be in gawdawful shape, but it’s still better then the bargain (sic) they’re getting for their/our dollar when it comes to actual knowledge. It’s a miracle China hasn’t passed us up already.
Apparently we are children until we are 26 now.
Good job by the young man. Hope he handles this OK.
I just got an a1 haven’t even taken it to the range yet. I liked the fell it is a little two chunking for a conceal carry gun but it had a nice feel. I still love my G19 that is my current carry gun but the a1 is growing on me.
Thanks
Robert
She was scared. She probably made the wrong call. But she was killed in a turkey shoot.. while fleeing. Causing minimal injury to anyone. She should have been arrested not executed. Your assessment IS wrong. She wasn’t trying to kill the president you fucking dumbass.
Were there really 6 “undercover cops” in that mob, or were they “off-duty cops” ?
Two points here that bear highlighting:
Anecdotally it seems unanimous that none of us will report owning guns to a stranger asking and that all those who reported one way or the other are seeing more new shooters instead of less.
We’re many people spread out over 40 or so years and across the country. It’s certainly not scientific but I’m going to go with the preponderance of evidence, the NCIS data, the huge uptick in sales, the mass increase of basic level NRA instructors, the anecdotal reports and go with there are MORE gun owners, not less.
In my home base of southern Ohio gun ownership is the rule rather than the exception. Even in homes where no one has fired a shot in years or decades there is still usually a gun or two somewhere to be had. They may be ‘inactive’ gun owners, but gun owners none the less. It’s this way across the region, virtually every household possesses arms. I wonder sometimes if they poll rural regions at all.
Mas Ayoob has covered instances where citizens have faced reprisal attacks after a defensive incident.I’ll put it like this;the bad guys have friends in the legal and court system, and they can track you down with or without the media’s unwitting assistance.
Two is one,and one is none.
I work at Gander Mountain down near Houston. We have an abundance of popular pistol ammo, but it’s… overpriced. Typical for a Gander Mtn.
There is a reason that she (and other Olympians) shoot Anschutz rifles. If someone can fabricate a lever gun in 22 caliber that is accurate as an Anschutz, I’m sure she can shoot it equally well. Not really sure at all what the point is but keep up the good work and keep posting pictures and videos of KJW.
Which one, The .223/5.56, dedicated 22 LR with New Frontier Poly Lower or the 7.62×39 Sota Arms upper with Double D Armory billet lower with PSA lower kit and Hyper touch trigger ?
Stock S&W Sport
A red dot
Loaded 10, 20 or 30 Rnd Mag (my pick)
Magpul BAD
Hopes and dreams
Of course I have no guns!, but i might if it didnot take so darn long for a ck that could take seconds, for a non-felon,combat-vet, without even a parking ticket! You really think Obama isnt winning? dream on!!!
Check the census. The number of households has increased over the same periods reported by the General Social Survey and the Gallup polls. In each case, the reported decline in the PERCENTAGE of households reporting gun ownership means a net INCREASE in total households containing guns of approximately 8 million.
Yet this is reported as “declining NUMBERS of gun owners.” No, the NUMBER is increasing – by a minimum of eight million, if you assume either of the surveys is accurate.
1. There is to many Gun mfg products being copping some one other manufacture Semi auto Pistols is illegal product is violation of the U.L. Regulations is struck rules too. They cam loose there F.F.L. licence is (07) &(010) too! And state licence to Mfg all Firearms too! It call counter fit copies by dishonest Gun mfg companies too! The A.T.F.E.A. Division will revoked there F.F.L. Licences of Gun Mfg too. And There Renewals Applications is cut off for good. too! do you agree! P.S other Gun Mfg are complaining to Federal Authorities to the the A.T.F. Licence Dept of the U.S Treasury too. Counter Fit Copies of other Guns almost the same look of the other Gun Product is almost same Semiautomatic Pistols Products only too! This needs to be investigated immediately By the Better Business Beau re now ! Do you Agree!!! I would Check Modern Firearms .com too. On Semi Pistols only too! Now!!! There is Counterfeit Gun Copies on Semi auto Pistols Products is A.To Z. Names too!!
1. The Maximum Cap limit should be for the U.S.A. should be no higher then (5000) F.F.Ls Licences Gun Dealers . Holder”s too! The All Fifty States should be maximum,Cap number Limit; is (100) F.F.L.s Holders too> Don”t add no more too! Regular Gun Dealers Stores is (01)&(02) & N.F.A Is (09) & Class-1 with N.F.A. Tax Stamp on Licence is Class-3 Licence too! Is N.F.A. Special New Licence too! Do you agree!!!!!