In this photo released by the Taiwan Military News Agency, Taiwanese artillery guns fire live rounds during exercises in 2021. (Military News Agency via AP)

Amid controversy over funding for border security, Ukraine and Israel, one item in the mix that’s getting less attention is Taiwan.

Because there’s not an active war between the Republic of China government on the island and the Chinese Communist Party on the mainland at present, it’s on the back burner. But, with public opinion shifting, American appetite for war going down and an incoming administration that both doesn’t seem to like them and probably won’t go to bat for them (assuming this isn’t a bargaining play of some kind), Taiwan’s defensive needs are very likely to slip off of the American stove entirely in early 2025.

While Taiwan doesn’t presently appear to stand much better chances than Ukraine without U.S. assistance, the costly nature of a sea invasion (in terms of both CCP money and Chinese lives) and the fact that key industries like chipmaking would be destroyed would likely keep an invasion from happening in the short run. But, the pressure for a “peaceful unification” (done under threat of a mutually destructive war) would be immense, and an invasion could become less costly if Xi Jinping can fix the PLA’s military corruption issues.

So, basically, anything that Taiwan’s leaders can do to make an invasion more costly either prevents an invasion from happening, or at the very least gives them a better seat at the bargaining table in future peace talks.

Obviously, many Americans feel like it’s not our problem, and I’m not going to even try to change minds on that. Instead, I want to focus on some things I’ve learned about that could give the country a better chance of standing on its own two feet without costly U.S. assistance. Whichever side of the issue you’re on, I think most would agree that more self-reliance would be a good thing.

The Self-Defense Guns Control Act

I’ve seen a number of U.S gun control activists hold Taiwan and Japan up as the utopia the United States could become if we’d just do things their way. After all, most countries in the region have strict gun control laws, and crime is super low, right?

But, like many things anti-gun people say, that’s not entirely true. Crime is really low in Japan and Taiwan, but it’s not because guns are utterly unavailable. Criminals always find ways of coming up with them, obviously, but there are also plenty of ways to build your own, such as the electronically-ignited zip-gun used to kill former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, or more sophisticated things like 3D printing (guns like the FGC-9 have been found in both countries).

The sad fact (at least for us in the States) is that people get guns in those places but generally don’t do sick things like shoot up schools and churches with them. So, we’ve clearly got some serious work to do fixing hearts and minds in the United States.

Another partial lie is that Taiwan has strict gun control, but a simple search of Taiwan’s laws shows that there’s a “shall issue” concealed carry permitting system in the law. But, nobody knows about this because the police and consulates simply don’t give you an application form unless you’re a diplomat or someone they really like. At least one citizen (non-citizens are eligible, too) has sued over this and the case didn’t go anywhere. I’m personally in the process of trying to get an application by way of complaint with the Control Yuan, a government watchdog and ombudsman office that comprises one of the ROC’s five branches of government.

Those who get a license are eligible to have a rifle or a pistol and a limited supply of ammunition for it, plus a shotgun (among some other weird or archaic guns). A household with two eligible adults can thus obtain a rifle, a pistol and two shotguns between them. This is obviously a lot more restrictive than American law, but it’s a whole lot better than nothing.

If the executive branch could do the right thing and issue licenses, it would go a long way toward improving the defense situation for Taiwan. The proverbial “rifle behind every blade of grass” is of obvious benefit in an invasion scenario, but just the threat of that would be enough to prevent an invasion due to the impossibility of occupation.

Perhaps more importantly, it would signal to the United States that Taiwan wants to implement a serious asymmetric warfare strategy and that people are willing to fight for themselves instead of making Americans die for them. With that skin in the game, the United States (especially Republicans) would probably be more willing to help.

All of these benefits would come without the government having to spend a dime. Civilians would be able to pick up the slack here.

Obviously, opening up the licensing process would only be step 1. People would need to purchase their own guns, so the import process needs to be streamlined unless everyone’s going to build an FGC-9. After purchase, Taiwan would definitely need more civilian instructors to help get people up to speed. Sadly, this includes people who did a few months of mandatory military service in the past, when the training was a bad joke.

But, none of this requires a change to the law or government spending, which would have to go through parliament. A simple regulatory change that allows people to submit applications is all that’s needed.

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74 COMMENTS

  1. “Taiwan Will Not Survive Unless Interior Ministry Starts Issuing Gun Permits”

    And, destroy the records of who owns what guns there.

    The only thing that will give China a serious case of indigestion over the decision to invade is that they have no way to know for sure if a citizen of Taiwan even has a gun or not.

    Registration leading to confiscation is the mark of an actual fascist…

      • And ILLannoy…no registration for moi. OTOH a FOID is registration so we’re all sCrEwed. I got another 10 round Pmag yesterday. And Kali Key’s are easily had. You’d think Taiwan would have a clue. The Philippine’s do🙄

        • Never mind Taiwan…After centuries of race based atrocities across America and now that Historical Analogy evidence matters You would think the subjects of lL would turn the tables and hold the democRat Party liable for Monetary Reparations.

          Instead of once again being the Land of Lincoln and pinning the democRat Party down it’s give the democRat Party a pass by wallowing around in concocted versions of the n-word. Like I said…Never mind Taiwan.

        • Nope. Hell just do dumb stuff like hire his relatives, unnecessarily call allies names again. A clown show. The fact he’s the ‘best’ candidate only shows what a sorry mess of a ‘democracy’ the US presently is. But I sympathize with you so worship on.

        • Concocted versions of the N word.
          Like I’m trying to figure out how to tell my grandson No without using the word No. And you just said Never. Another N word.

  2. Do Governments that confiscate guns from the citizenry deserve to exist???

    The United kingdom? The jewish state of israel? Mexico? etc.etc.

    • Exactomundo. A lot of social-lists countries that have spent more on the dole and depriving their peasants of rights than on their military are in for a shock. When the bidens finish ruining our economy those countries will not be able to count on America wading in with the troops to save them.

      Let those semi fascist countries experience the bootheel of real fascism. Maybe they’ll get it right next time. Every citizen should have access to weapons of war.

      • Dr. Thomas Sowell has written an entire book on why some societies fail. And why others succeed.

        Thank God the founders understood this in their day. The 2A has always been more important than the 1st amendment. Because it’s extremely easy to take away your right to speak.

        And that has already been done.
        And the Libertarians Liberals and the Left supported it.

        • You’re ignorant of the definition of libertarian and liberal. The founding fathers were liberals!

        • to Phillip Lowery

          The libertarians supported these multi-billion dollar tech companies and multi-billion dollar banks. When they shut down access to their services from gun training companies. And mom and pop small gun stores.

          The libertarians are very comfortable with big business crushing the individual. Crushing the small businessman.

  3. It will be a negotiated takeover with little or no actual fighting, maybe a blockade and golden parachutes will probably be the deciders.
    Most Taiwan peons don’t care who lords over them as long as they have a home, job, food and healthcare. There is not much difference between CCP & Capitalist Billionaires and individual freedom is not that highly valued in that region, other things are more important. It could be another Vietnam fiasco if we get too involved.

    • “It could be another Vietnam fiasco if we get too involved.”

      No. Communist China will just use the 21st century version of “cattle cars.” And will move the entire population of Formosa Island to a “much safer” place.

      Far inside the Chinese mainland. I’m sure the death camps. No I mean the “re-education camps” have all been built many decades ago.

      Or they can simply kill every man woman and child, on the island.

      And the number of Libertarians Liberals and Leftists who would say that would never happen. That’s the same number of people who say the holocaust never happened.

    • “Most Taiwan peons don’t care who lords over them as long as they have a home, job, food and healthcare.”

      Not from the people from Taiwan that I know.

      They are *deeply* distrustful of China, after seeing what happened in Hong Kong after the British left in 1998 (?). They know they will get the same treatment, and want no part of it.

      Will they fight? Look what happened in Ukraine when the fighting got down to street-by-street, house by house. They fought the Russians with everything they had, and got down and dirty about it. I especially loved how they poisoned the hard alcohol they left behind when they were forced to evacuate. They have been exploiting the fact the Russian soldiers have been looting personal electronics and paying dearly for it.

      The midnight new year’s eve time-on-target (TOT) strike with HIMARS came about because a whole lot of ‘Find my Apple device’ hits and cell phone calls were concentrated in one large building, so they wiped it out.

      The Chinese poor conscripts from the rural provinces will have very sticky fingers, and that can be exploited… 🙂

    • The residents of Hong Kong were not too happy when China tossed the carefully drafted agreement between China and England that guaranteed democracy and freedom of speech for 99 years. Xi passed laws that required a majority of members of the city council be from China, after which all pro-democracy members were deemed disqualified. It would be no different with Taiwan. Xi demands absolute control, and he will not act any differently with Taiwan. And the Taiwanese know it. The most recent election of an anti-unification president reinforced that understanding.

  4. “Taiwan will not survive” all you need to know. they are training their army with Nerf guns. Ukraine was unprepared. They will loose.
    Israel was unprepared. They are paying with blood.
    The US is next. Just look at the border.

      • exactly , for all the talk of how necessary an armed populace is, the armed populace seems generally apathetic as long as it happens a little at a time. Whether Taiwans situation would be improved by lining up with US mythology is debatable to say the least.

      • Dude that seems to be the plan.
        Every member of congress, red and blue,
        that isn’t actively working to close the border and remove illegals needs to be voted out asap

  5. Because the smartest people in the room said, it’s just fine if the USA stops having an industry like electronics or steel. So now if a communist country takes over our supply. They are OK with that???

    They’re OK with doing business with a Chinese communist/fascist dictatorship. President Trump was against that.

    I remember when the Libertarians Liberals and the Left attacked Republicans for supporting “rightwing” dictatorships.
    But the three L’s are comfortable putting $$$ into the pockets of communist China. Also they like putting $$$ into the pockets of the communists in Cuba.

    Trump was correct.
    America First!!!

    • “They’re OK with doing business with a Chinese communist/fascist dictatorship. President Trump was against that.“

      “Trump waited until after he left office to disclose trademarks he owns in China and Russia
      Jacob Shamsian Nov 3, 2023, 12:38 PM EDT
      DOMINICK REUTER/AFP via Getty Images
      Donald Trump disclosed that he owns hundreds of foreign trademarks in his ethics filings this year.
      He didn’t disclose any in the same forms while he was president.
      Trump owns 114 trademarks in China — more than any other country by far, including the US.
      Donald Trump’s financial disclosures neglected to include hundreds of trademarks he owns — including over 100 in China and six in Russia — until after he left the office of the presidency.

      The hundreds of trademarks include the rights for business opportunities expected for someone with Trump’s business record, like real estate, golf, beauty pageant, and hotel branding in dozens of countries.

      The list also includes more unexpected business opportunities for the former president, like video games, lash extensions, deodorant, and nautical instruments.”

      America was correct.
      Trump First!!!

  6. I go back-and-forth on the entire concept of invasion as well as effective defensive strategies.

    First of all, I question how many invasions are truly about land-grabs versus some other true objective. Other possible true objectives could be enriching the military-industrial complex and even reducing the young male population.

    Second of all and more importantly, I question common strategies. The idea of artillery (pictured above and prominently exhibited in almost all Ukraine war photos/videos) seems silly to me. Unless invaders are moving forward on foot in huge/dense crowds, artillery is useless. (Artillery certainly isn’t going to strike moving vehicles.) Then there is the whole “arm everyone” strategy. While that is effective for stopping roving invader teams of a few men, it is utterly impotent to stop an organized force of 2,000 invaders moving through a township for example. Of course armed people could cause more damage after an occupation begins. Then again, how long will those armed people be able to fight back if the occupiers simple turn off electricity, water, and food shipments to any given area? (Siege tactics are VERY effective.)

    We have to acknowledge a simple fact: invaders have the advantage and the people defending fixed structures/locations have a giant disadvantage. While arming everyone is not a bad thing, it is probably not the golden solution that everyone envisions.

    Last quick comment: air superiority, precision guided munitions, and ruthless determination (without self-imposed limitations on methods/tactics) win wars.

    • Israel has all that. Plus beaucoup nukes. They’re infiltrated by millions of arabs who would repeat October 7 in a Jerusalem minute. If Benny Net is deposed all bets are off(until the “treaty” with the anti-christ). I’m uncertain if Taiwan is “important” in the grand scheme of things🙄

    • “First of all, I question how many invasions are truly about land-grabs versus some other true objective.”

      If China thinks they can be a world leader with the most advanced chip factories by invading Taiwan, they have an ugly surprise coming. Firstly, Taiwan will wreck the extreme UV lithography machines required to make the most advanced chips, and even if they don’t, those 300 million-dollar machines require *extremely* advanced spare parts to keep running, and the Dutch and Germans who make those parts won’t sell them those parts. *Thud*, no chips.

      This video lays out why China will never be a world-leader in chips.

      In a nutshell, in a box the size of a standard shipping container costing 150 million dollars, lasers thousands of times a second blast tiny droplets of pure tin metal twice to generate the extreme ultraviolet light required :

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw

  7. Let Taiwan solve their own damn problems. If they care at all about independence, every man, woman & child should have started weapons training 10 years ago.

    Taiwan is NOT OUR ISSUE TO FIX. Stay out of it. Don’t send your sons to die for their b.s.

    • Ah yes, classic American isolationism. No one else’s problems are our problems. Until we are attacked. With that attitude, the strong will always conquer the weak, until an equal or greater force confronts them on the battlefield. So it is as it has always been. Sooner or later, their problems will become our problems.

      If Ukraine falls, the three Baltic states are next on Putin’s menu, followed by Poland. All are NATO countries, and were are by treaty obligated to come to their assistance when attacked.

      • “If Ukraine falls, the three Baltic states are next on Putin’s menu, followed by Poland.”

        That invokes article 5 of the NATO charter. An attack on one is an attack on all…

      • Taiwan is not our problem.
        Ukraine is not our problem.
        Israel is not our problem.

        If you want to go die for them, by all means.

      • Having spent over 1/3 of my life in the military. I think the @the!sts and h 0 m 0 se xu @l s who demanded they be allowed to serve.

        They can go over and fight and die just like the christians, have been doing for many decades now.

        It’s long passed time they step up. And fill in the void left by the christians. Who use to gladly volunteer and serve honorably.

        It’s now time for the @t he!s ts to begin “serving their god”.
        The big government that they worship so much.

      • I don’t ever recall signing any treaties to fight Poland’s or the baltic states wars for them, the government did but i didn’t and i will not be chain ganged to their ethnic squabbles

  8. American appetite for war going down and an incoming administration that both doesn’t seem to like them and probably won’t go to bat for them

    Is it a foregone conclusion that Trump wins in 2024? Did you miss 2020?

    Your doesn’t seem to like them link doesn’t come close to proving your point. Do you search for titles of videos or articles that agree with you regardless of their content? I learned years ago that you have to check sources. Once you find a trustworthy news source, you might not have to check their sources every time, unless the story doesn’t seem plausible. You are now officially NOT a trustworthy source.

    That Daily Beast article you sent me to reads like something a seventh grader would write. It’s full of unsourced gossip, and it even contradicts itself. It’s a typical MSM hate Trump piece that we’ve been seeing since 2015. It was a complete waste of time, and it didn’t even prove your point, just like your video reference. If I wanted fake news, I’d visit the usual networks. I hope this was just laziness on your part. You can do better, Jennifer.

  11. We need to factor in that China is teetering on the brink of collapse or revolution.
    Whether this is a plus or minus for Taiwan remains to be seen, will the CCP look to distract the general population with a war, or will the army be too busy with it’s historical task of oppressing the population?

    • China’s internal problems with its economy and with the corruption that has characterized the Chinese Elite for centuries may be Taiwan’s saving grace. The People are not well armed, and likely will not revolt; it will be an internecine battle among the elite leadership and billionaire businessmen.

  13. “For every complex problem there is always a well-known solution that is neat, plausible, and wrong.”
    – H.L.Mencken

    The three major parties have irreconcilable differences. In a country where any government is dependent on not having an armed revolution, all the factions just might know what they are doing by implementing strong gun controls.

    One can understand that the political calculus is that the threat of invasion by a foreign power is notably less a concern than violent overthrow by the populace. Whether or not a revolution would succeed, Taiwan would suffer about the same devastation via civil war.

    Americans are branded with a penchant for simple solutions, and mostly concerned with the next five minutes. Americans don’t generally like to ponder the complexities, but favor strong, direct, quick action when faced with strategic decisions; such as whether to defend a UN nation invaded by another UN member nation. Such defense may be right, or may be wrong, but we Americans don’t want to engage in thoughtful contemplation; just react.

  14. The Far Right fantasy/myth of the “Minute Man” fails to die away. In reality untrained, ill-equipped citizens are no match for a professionally trained army. In short they are nothing more than target practice for the invading army.

    The real truth about the American revolution is far different than the brainwashing that Right Wing School Boards give grade school students.

    In reality only 1/3 of the American population supported the revolution sponsored by greed monger stingy tightwad Merchants who were too cheap and stingy to pay a few pennies in taxes to support the hand that was feeding them and making America prosperous i.e. the trade with the British Empire.

    George Washington was such an incompetent leader he even had to hire an old has-been alcoholic German General to train his troops for him who were underequipped, ill-fed, and poorly clothed and ill-trained. If it had not been for French intervention with their professional Army and Navy and up to date siege cannon, Georgie boy would have been captured and hung by his dirty balls and the U.S. today would be a much better country to live in. The U.S. would under British rule have received a Parliamentary Government with multiple pollical parties and have a true Democracy. If anything the best thing Americans could do today is pay Mount Vernon a visit and piss on Georgie’s grave. b

    • Oh yeah, like England is a paradise and a dominant world power today. You just get more ignorant every day.

    • You can always tell when dacian has barricaded his room door and won’t let his mother give him his medications.

      He starts spouting a lot of nonsense.

  15. China will treat Taiwan like the IDF is treating Gaza. Guns in the hands of citizens ain’t gonna matter.

    • No. The terrorist government in Gaza believes in gun control. Just like the Jewish State of Israel does.

      If the arabs really believe in the 2A in their society??? There would be 3 or 4 AK-47s in each families home. With at least a thousand rounds per rifle in the house.

      If that was the case the israeli military advance would not be advancing. You would have several thousand dead Jewish soldiers by now. If the arab civilians had a 2A like we do.

      Now here is the middle east version, of what a Japanese admiral said, about the USA.

      There is “no gun behind every corner” in Gaza.

      There is “no gun behind every grain of sand” in Gaza.

      The people of Gaza are a disarmed Arab society. Disarmed by other arabs.

  16. This article doesn’t seem to be based on reality. I don’t think the author has even a basic understanding of the situation.

  17. John Quincy Adams said it best.

    “America is the friend of liberty everywhere, but the champion of none but it’s own.”

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/go-not-abroad-in-search-of-monsters-to-arm/

    What we really need to do is repatriate our semiconductor production industry as well as our heavy industries and manufacturing.

    Then again, US intervention in Taiwan is likely to provoke a nuclear war. The most probable targets would be major cities such as New York City. Imagine all of those Democrats who voted early and repeatedly for Biden getting nuked.

    • “What we really need to do is repatriate our semiconductor production industry“

      “Biden signs CHIPS Act, paving way for Intel buildout of New Albany site
      Mark Williams
      The Columbus Dispatch
      The CHIPS Act has officially become law and with it, the potential of New Albany becoming the site of the world’s biggest semiconductor manufacturing operations.

      President Joe Biden signed the bill into law Tuesday morning in a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in front of politicians and business, labor and educational leaders. The law provides $52.7 billion in aid to the semiconductor industry along with other incentives.“
      In January, Intel announced plans to spend $20 billion to build two plants in New Albany that will employ 3,000 workers earning on average $135,000 per year. But it said with federal aid, the site could have eight factories and a total investment of $100 billion.”

      Thanks Joe!

  18. Looks like Taiwan isn’t going to survive then. Sad Trombone. Maybe we will need to learn to make things in the USA again.

      • EPA has to go (as well as many other Federal overreaching agencies) if this Nation is to survive.

        Likely things won’t change until after a major revolution which will likely happen sooner or later. We can just look on as the failed state that used to be the USA dies like a turtle upside down in the hot sun. But out of the ashes hopefully something new and better will grow. Time will tell.

  19. Taiwan has had a long time to prepare for this. They have something up their sleeve. Nukes, Bio, or chemical. They will strike back.

      • Like I said. Nukes, biological, or chemical. The Taiwanese are Chinese also. They play the long game too. They haven’t been sitting on their hands and the don’t show their cards.

      • Capitulation is the only thing up their sleeves. Tgis bed is made, they have but to lie in it.

  20. What they need to do is create civilian militias of every able bodied person. Train them, arm them. Give China something to think twice about.

    • Nagunnahappen.

      They don’t have it in them. They have a propensity to bend at the knees bred into them.

  21. It’d have been better if this sort of article was written by a Taiwanese firearms expert.

  22. We should have never left Taiwan. When the Peanut closed the last of the bases in the R.O.C. The free Chinese rioted because we had let them down, a shame for our Republic- not for them. Somehow the leaders in the west thought that the Chicom’s would change their stripes. Communists never change evil, terror, murder and destruction where ever they go since 1917. The Free Chinese helped us in Korea and Vietnam they know what Communist rule means and they saw it again in Hong Kong 2019/20. They don’t want it. Period. Taiwan is a beautiful country one of the best in Asia-the population may be less martial than the C.K.C. days but they will fight. I really am concerned about what will happen if the Maoist’s attack it will be horrific. They should arm and train up the civilian population, fortify the sea lanes from the mainland and harden up civil defense. With the current weak leader ship in D.C. the situation is quite dangerous. For us and for them.

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