(courtesy foxiness.com)

I was recently researching homicide rates, attempting to determine the primary factors behind homicide rates between states and nations. I came across the updated version of The Color of Crime. The report tests hypotheses about crime and arrest rates in the United States — offering ethnicity-related analysis that the mainstream media dare not speak. The 2016 updated version is loaded with bar charts illustrating the statistical differences in crime rates between Asians, Blacks, Hispanics and Whites. The Color of Crime includes a section on police killings of suspects. The results of the evidence and analysis are startling, and turn many modern political assumptions on their head . . .

Using data collected by the Washington Post, The Color of Crime‘s author Edwin S. Rubinstein found that black people were 2.45 times as likely to be shot by police as white people. Black people were also 4.46 times as likely to kill a police officer than people of other races. (“FBI data show that from 2005 to 2014, blacks accounted for 40 percent of police killings. Since blacks were approximately 13 percent of the population, it meant they were 4.46 times more likely than people of other races to kill a police officer.”) Black people are arrested for violent crimes at 5.35 times the arrest rate of white people.

(courtesy colorofcrime.com)

Rubinstein’s study compares victim surveys with arrest rates. Victims would have little reason to misidentify criminals; and most crimes are intra-racial. Comparing victim surveys with actual arrest rates reveals that blacks are arrested at a slightly lower rate than the rate they actually commit crimes. Thus, if there is a bias, it is against black victims, rather than against black criminals.

There is little editorializing in the research; the author’s only suggesting that crime rate differences have something to do with economic status in passing. Out in the wider world, there’s no dearth of speculation about the reason behind the differences in crime rates among Asians, whites, blacks and Hispanics. This study shows that bias in arrest rates and incarceration rates is not one of them. If anything, it points in the opposite direction.

Here are the report’s major findings:

  • The evidence suggests that if there is police racial bias in arrests it is negligible. Victim and witness surveys show that police arrest violent criminals in close proportion to the rates at which criminals of different races commit violent crimes.
  • There are dramatic race differences in crime rates. Asians have the lowest rates, followed by whites, and then Hispanics. Blacks have notably high crime rates. This pattern holds true for virtually all crime categories and for virtually all age groups.
  • In 2013, a black was six times more likely than a non-black to commit murder, and 12 times more likely to murder someone of another race than to be murdered by someone of another race.
  • In 2013, of the approximately 660,000 crimes of interracial violence that involved blacks and whites, blacks were the perpetrators 85 percent of the time. This meant a black person was 27 times more likely to attack a white person than vice versa. A Hispanic was eight times more likely to attack a white person than vice versa.
  • In 2014 in New York City, a black was 31 times more likely than a white to be arrested for murder, and a Hispanic was 12.4 times more likely. For the crime of “shooting” — defined as firing a bullet that hits someone — a black was 98.4 times more likely than a white to be arrested, and a Hispanic was 23.6 times more likely.
  • If New York City were all white, the murder rate would drop by 91 percent, the robbery rate by 81 percent, and the shootings rate by 97 percent.
  • In an all-white Chicago, murder would decline 90 percent, rape by 81 percent, and robbery by 90 percent.
  • In 2015, a black person was 2.45 times more likely than a white person to be shot and killed by the police. A Hispanic person was 1.21 times more likely. These figures are well within what would be expected given race differences in crime rates and likelihood to resist arrest.
  • In 2015, police killings of blacks accounted for approximately 4 percent of homicides of blacks. Police killings of unarmed blacks accounted for approximately 0.6 percent of homicides of blacks. The overwhelming majority of black homicide victims (93 percent from 1980 to 2008) were killed by blacks.
  • Both violent and non-violent crime has been declining in the United States since a high in 1993. 2015 saw a disturbing rise in murder in major American cities that some observers associated with “depolicing” in response to intense media and public scrutiny of police activity.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
Gun Watch

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127 COMMENTS

    • The important part of these statistics is that they destroy the idea that availability of guns is the driver of violent crime. If that were so, then inner cities, where there are few gun stores and legal guns are harder to come by, would have lower violent crime. But most of the killing is concentrated in small cultural groups. The groups that have easy access to legal guns have far lower violent crime.

      At the minimum, it shows that the instruments are not the drivers of violent crime, other cultural factors are. Culture drives violent crime, not guns.

      We can argue what the cultural factors are; fatherless homes; the remnants of slave culture; economics; attitudes toward authority; attitudes toward education. But it is clear that access to firearms is close to neutral, and may be positive or negative, but is not a driver.

      • More basic than culture is genetics. The world’s hot spots in terms of murder rate are in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. This corresponds with Blacks and Latin American Hispanics being the two most violent segments, by far, of American society. Cultural Americanization of these groups has reduced their rates of violence relative to that found in their ancestral homelands, but race, as demonstrated by DNA analysis, is a biological reality, and violent behavior rates are a function of race.

        • If you look at European homicide rates in the middle ages, they are close to areas of Africa today. It is culture. Genetics may have an effect on culture, but it is likely rather small. There is a pretty good discussion of this in “The Bell Curve”. Consider Jamaica. It is by a large majority, a black country. Before 1965, the homicide rate was lower than that for the United States. Now, after independence, a complete lack of respect for the rule of law, and a burgeoning culture that blames Europeans for all their problems, the homicide rate is more than 10X the United States.

          If it were genetics, the genetics were overcome by the rule of law and culture that came from the UK before 1965.

        • @Dean (since I can’t reply via tag)

          Would you accept the premise that Europeans weeded out our most violent populations in the 1200-1500 years since the Middle Ages? The punishment for most violent crimes in Europe for most of history was death. That gets rid of people with low IQs and highly aggressive dispositions quite quickly. Africa and Central America have not been subject to these selective pressures by law-and-order governance. Might makes right in these parts of the world. There is no common law or notion of property rights out there, at least one that is capable of enforcing its will.

          Culture is a product of genetics and genetics are a product of culture. Difference in one is evidence of difference in the other.

        • Weingarten – I have to throw down the BS flag on comparing modern African crime rates to 1200AD Europe. There’s no way on God’s green earth there are reliable statistics from that era. Hell, you have to work hard to find statistics that are not outright false today.

          It’s genetics, goys. Sub-Saharan Africans were pulled out of dream time way ahead of schedule, if they were ever going to leave it at all. Their genetic pressures were different from European peoples and are the basis of their cultures. It’s wishful thinking that Africans are 100% just like European whites, except their abilities to run faster and jump higher… but no differences in the brain whatsoever!

      • Great point. Of course, the Libs who are doing their best to keep minorities dependent on the government in order to have a voting base will poo poo studies like this as racist.

  4. I spit out my Coke and started laughing at work when I read what the crime rate would be in New York if all the Americans of black African ancestry ancestry were removed.

    God, imagine that place. It’d be like the 50s or something. In North Dakota.

  5. Since blacks were approximately all slaves of the demtard party and are reliable demtard VOTES none of this matters.

    • You’ll have better luck telling fat-asses to get off the couch, spit out that chicken leg, and exercise every day if they want to feel better.

      They won’t, because it’s easier to blame someone else for issue you fail to address.

      • I’m an exception to that rule. I’m fat and don’t care. It’s my fault and no one else’s. P.S. I hate chicken legs.

  7. Police Line of Duty Deaths 2015: 128
    9/11 related illness: 6
    Accidental: 2
    Aircraft accident: 1
    Assault: 3
    Automobile accident: 27
    Bomb: 6
    Drowned: 1
    Duty related illness: 2
    Fall: 1
    Gunfire: 39
    Gunfire (Accidental): 2
    Heart attack: 17
    Motorcycle accident: 3
    Struck by vehicle: 4
    Vehicle pursuit: 5
    Vehicular assault: 8
    Weather/Natural disaster: 1

    47 auto related “Line of Duty” deaths
    17 jelly donut “Line of Duty” deaths

    39 (30%) badguy gunfire “Line of Duty” deaths

    “Put life on the line every day” BS. Stay out of/away from cars and stay out of the middle of the road. And get your fat rear in shape Barney.

    • Yeah, for all their melodramatic pontification, policing ain’t exactly one of the more dangerous jobs.

      • How is that relevant to the topic? Like you, police have the natural right to defend themselves against violent criminals. Because Blacks are by far the most criminally violent segment of society, it is hardly shocking to discover that they kill police in disproportionate numbers and that police defend themselves from Blacks in disproportionate numbers.

    • As far as mortal peril is concerned, they’re overstating it. That said, they do face exceedingly higher likelihood of being assaulted, shot, stabbed, etc. Let’s also not forget those in some rough areas (like is prevalent in Appalachia) where they also face chemical risks when investigating meth labs.

      Of course, there are other dangerous professions, and the dangers can be controlled to an extent. The oilfield has done a marvel with controlling the danger. It used to be like a slaughterhouse a few decades ago, now many rigs have entire years without so much as a minor injury. The police could do take steps to continue to mitigate their risks as well.

      • A mandatory diet and exercise program would sound like the best place to start. Then again, it’s sort of like how during the Gulf War, the death rate for US service personnel actually dropped. Why? Because Gomer Pile was in the field getting his ass chewed by his Platoon Sergeant instead of trolling the bars around Lejune.

        • I agree with police having height / weight / body fat / fitness standards. Unfortunately, our program got shot down because fat cops got “injured” exercising and took out workers comp claims. So it got even worse – you had to pay lazy, fat cops to sit on their a$$es while they “recovered” from their work related injuries.

          The powers that be concluded that it was better to pay fat cops for working than recovering.

          I think they could still implement the program by reducing the next pay raise. Instead, they would offer a greater incentive for officers who could reach a specified fitness standard.

          But then we still lose because fit officers live longer after they retire and pull pensions longer. Welcome to an imperfect world.

      • The chance of not going home to to their family that they harp on so frequently is less than that of fishermen, loggers, pilots. farmers, miners, roofers, garbage men, drivers (esp taxi), power transmission workers, machinery workers, construction labor, grounds keepers.

      • In addition, being a LEO is a voluntary job. They are made aware of the risks and if they disagree at any time to accept the risk, they can quit. They have not signed a contractual obligation like the US Armed Forces, where you will get prosecuted under UCMJ if you try to quit.

        And this is what rubs me wrong the most. Their need to safely do their job and “to get home to their family” is justification to infringe on people’s rights. That somehow their needs are above the rest of the citizens.

    • Go ahead run toward the gunfire around the corner from you.

      Remember your CC training that said if its not right there on you or your family, get yourself and them to safety? COPS RUN TO IT as part of the job. Are some of them overweight lousy drivers / corrupt/commanders wait too long to enter an “active shooter”?

      OMG they are not as perfect as YOU want them to be.

      Go ahead, intervene in a fight between drug / booze addled domestic partners. Especially one who just got out of the military and its YOUR FIRST DAY.

      Go hands on with an EDP with a weapon, BECAUSE YOU HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED THERE.

      You talk big.

  8. This reported was issued from The New American Foundation, which is the think tank that noted white supremacist and anti-Semite Jared Taylor set up to support the work of his primary organization American Renaissance. Here is the now somewhat dated Anti-Defamation League Report on Mr. Taylor:
    http://www.adl.org/assets/pdf/combating-hate/jared-taylor-extremism-in-america.pdf

    The data in the reports that Mr. Weingarten is writing about has been massaged, finagled, and or just straight up made from whole cloth and manipulated to produce these results.

    Here is the Washington Post’s attempts to actual get into these questions. The article also deals with the difficulty in trying to answer it due to the nature of how the FBI actually collects the data/what data is collected by the FBI.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/09/are-black-or-white-offenders-more-likely-to-kill-police/

    • ^^ This ^^

      Don’t people know by now you how easy it is to manipulate statistics? Especially gun owners should know better!

      • In this case its easy to get fooled. To be brutally frank: its easy to get fooled with even the mainstream think tanks given who is funding there work – on both sides of the center line (wherever that may be in America today). But in this case its even worse. Had I not spent several years, prior to going to work with the military, as a criminologist studying both domestic and foreign extremist and terrorist movements – including white supremacists – and comparing and contrasting their ideologies/theologies/doctrines, strategies, objectives, etc I wouldn’t have known something was funky. I doubt Mr. Weingarten intended to pull a fast one to make a point, its just when you see a report that’s formatted to look sharp, and its under the auspices of a think tank or research institute that sounds innocuous, and you don’t have prior knowledge about the players this is going to happen.

        • On the other hand, the fact checking by WaPo based o n FBI data, as incomplete as it is, still shows that blacks, at 12-+13% of the general population, account for 40+ percent of all violent crime. And if you go into the crime by age, blacks between the ages of 14 and 35 account for almost all of those crimes, whether intra or interracial. After 35, these felons are either locked up for long terms, run gangs where others do their bidding, are dead, or have left their life of crime.

        • Great job Adam, I was actually waiting for someone to point that out. Disappointed at TTAG for posting that without looking into the source. We as a community get bull crap stats thrown in our face all the time by anti gunners, for us to go and do it is super hypocritical. The only thing it showed was the true color of racist on this website who love seeing articles like this.

        • Black males are approximately 8% of the US population. Per the FBI UCR they commit 50% of all murders.

          Grow the hell up. Blacks are far more likely to commit violent crimes. Period. In every country on earth that keep stats. We can discuss causality all day long, but the fact remains they do. That does not mean that all blacks are violent criminals, the majority aren’t. That does not mean all blacks are are not basically good, most are.

          But the fact remains that my black friends would far prefer to see a group of white guys approaching them on a dark street. They know the stats.

    • A one eyed gypsy reading tea leaves would have a greater chance of arriving at the truth than either the ADL or the Washington Post.

      If you had included the SPLC you would have had hit the trifecta of largely ignored leftist propaganda machines.

    • Going to have to agree here. Publishing data from a self avowed white separatist is a very bad idea. This is the first I’ve suggested this but I highly recommend you throw this one down the memory hole.

      • I emailed RF right away. But given the lag time involved with that, I figured putting up a comment immediately was a good backstop.

      • I’m not so sure. The 13% of population 50+% of crime numbers are elsewhere, as in FBI reports.

      • From the WAPO summary:

        “More white offenders than black offenders killed police between 1980 and 2013. Police officers were killed in ambush attacks by just as many black offenders as white offenders in the past three decades. ”

        And they left off that blacks are only 13% of the population. So all Jared did was explain that.

        See my non defense of Jared Taylor OR ADL above.

    • Here is the now somewhat dated Anti-Defamation League Report on Mr. Taylor:
      Of which I am sure they are never biased.

    • If you reject The Color of Crime solely because you think its authors are icky racists, that is logically fallacious; it’s called the ad hominem fallacy. The report should be evaluated on its own merits, not on whether some liberals call its creators anti-whatever. But if I was going to do ad hominem myself, I’d surely trust AmRen more than WaPo or ADL.

      • The problem with that is that a study done by a person with a known, admitted, and published bias will be equally tainted with that bias. It’s like taking gun statistics from moms demand action. You cannot admit you have a problem with black people and then say ‘oh look, here’s a study I did that proves black people are a problem’.

        • “The problem with that is that a study done by a person with a known, admitted, and published bias will be equally tainted with that bias”

          The problem is YOU ARE LYING and you and you possible sock puppet above are trying to bury this because you are more on the side of the left wing WAPO and ADL.

          Jared didn’t do the study, he only summarized it, the study IS FROM THE FBI.

          He’s a known racialist, and the WAPO and the ADL are known left wing groups who are out to gut the Constitution. You stand with them?

          I don’t stand with AR or WAPO or ADL

    • The WaPo and the Anti-Defamation League would brand Mr. Taylor a racist weather he really is racist or not. He dared make the heretical but true claim that blacks commit more crimes than whites, Hispanics and Asians. For this he must be labeled a racist. I have no idea if his work is legitimately unbiased or not, but if you’re going to convince me that it’s not you need quote a neutral source.

      The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem.

    • I followed your WaPo link and didn’t see where it disagreed significantly from this report. Do you have anything beyond ad hominem to support your claoms? What, specifically was made up?

    • Jared Taylor and AR might be sometimes over the top, but the ADL and WAPO consistently swing just as far the other way towards open borders and tolerance for crime AND A HATRED OF THE 2nd Amendment.

      As noted above, looking at WAPO’s analysis STILL unfortunately shows U.S. blacks (mostly of American descent I would anecdotally add) are committing violent crime and murder way out of proportion to their percentage of population.

      I will never spin and wont tolerate anyone spinning it genetically, but culturally the black community in America needs a major house cleaning.

      (so do all “race communities” in America, who still tend to vote too often for tyranny).

    • First of all, it’s the New Century Foundation, not the “New American Foundation.” This is an organization that has been talking about these issues for years, so they frequently get called names by people like the Southern Poverty Law Center and other extreme left-wing zealots– but then again, those people call everyone racist b/c it looks better in fundraising letters. And am I wrong, or is the author, Edwin Rubinstein, at least partially Jewish? I’m pretty sure that if NCF were the nasty neo-Nazi group that’s dominating your thoughtspace, he wouldn’t get let into the club.

      Secondly, if you actually open the report and read it, you can see that the data comes from the Washington Post, as well as the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Your evil racist boogeymen didn’t create any data “out of whole cloth.” Anyone who fairly examines that dataset will come to the same conclusions. Calling the editor names won’t change that.

      Finally– is there anything in this report that is truly surprising? This is not an insult, just an observation. Anyone who has lived in or near black areas of town knows that the cops are there much more often, and to think this is just because they want to pick on black people is to stretch the limits of credulity. Cops go where the crime happens.

    • So you’re one of the ADL-funded propagandists who tries to keep demographic knowledge of crime out of the hands of the public. You pukes keep on talking about a “conversation about race” and all it ever amounts to is another lecture for law-abiding white folks by cop-killers and rioters about how much more money we need to fork over to them to buy another few months of peace.

      Near as I can tell, none of these statistics have ever been officially refuted. Your poison-the-well fallacy says more about your intentions than it does the article.

      • Actually I’m a guy with a PhD from the University of Florida with a focus in Criminology who now does work for/with the military (as a consultant/contractor or as a mobilized civilian on term appointments depending on the assignment). Prior to that I was responsible for overseeing, revising, and teaching graduate philosophy of knowledge/science, research design, research methods, and statistics with a criminology/criminal justice focus for local, state, and Federal law enforcement in an applied Criminology masters of arts program. For full disclosure: I was once paid by the Department of Justice for my participation in the National Institute of Justice’s 2002 Special Conference on Violence and Terrorism. I, along with my former doctoral chair for the Criminology portion of my PhD, prepared and presented a paper on how to conceptualize terrorism in regards to empirical theories of crime and deviance. The paper, as well as the others presented, were collected into an edited volume by Dr. Zahn (the conference coordinator) and can be found here: Violence: From Theory to Research. Margaret A. Zahn, Henry H. Brownstein, and Shelly L. Jackson (eds). Cincinnati: Anderson Publishing, 2004. While I largely do not prepare work for peer review, because it is outside the scope of my work for the military, I do have numerous peer reviewed publications dealing with terrorism, extremism, and counter-terrorism. A more recent example of my strategic level analytical work for the Army can be found here: http://public.carlisle.army.mil/sites/Landpower/Shared%20Documents/USAWC_Cultural_Operations_Report_Politicization_of_Iraqi_Identity_Final.pdf
        I have no affiliation with the Anti-Defamation League.

        • I am intimately familiar with the military and the BS civilian researchers that are hired. It’s a top-down system and the research results are designed to match the desired ends of the administration in power. You don’t impress me at all when you flash your civilian contractor card.

    • You have made some serious allegations about the statistics in “The Color of Crime”.

      You have a PHD, and have studied criminology for a number of years.

      I have studied the FBI uniform crime reports, and numerous other criminological papers for years, as well.

      I would like to know where in the current report you can show that “The data in the reports that Mr. Weingarten is writing about has been massaged, finagled, and or just straight up made from whole cloth and manipulated to produce these results. ”

      The statistics in The Color of Crime appear to line up with most reported crime statistics.

      Please show us where the errors are. The ADL is no more of a credible source than the New Century Foundation. Calling the source racist does not work anymore; it has been used to beat down opposition a bit too often.

      I am willing to be educated. Where are the numbers wrong, other than you dislike the source?

      • Mr. Weingarten,

        There are two related issues. The first is that these numbers in and of themselves do not tell us much. As has been remarked in other comments to this post, as well as in many other places, the number of law enforcement officers killed per year, especially feloniously (intentionally as a homicide or as part of another crime), is not a very frequent occurrence. While not to diminish any of those deaths, nor to marginalize anyone’s grief, but statistically they’re not even a rounding error. If I were to design a study to actually try to get at the actual drivers, year on year, grounded in appropriate empirical theories, I would have to use at least a poisson model, if not a negative binomial distribution (a variant of poisson for very rarely occurring events). This is important as we’re talking about a very rare occurrence, though given the politics of the moment, perhaps one with outsize import and impact. To circle back to the main point here, these observations don’t get us very far in terms of understanding or coming to terms with the phenomenon or in how to develop appropriate policies and effective strategies to deal with it. This was the reason I linked to the Washington Post report on this topic. The article correctly points out that this information is correct, but it doesn’t present it in a manner intended to promote a polemical point: that there is something, sui generis, innately wrong with African Americans/people of African descent that drives this behavior.

        This brings me to the second point, which was the real reason I made my initial comment and emailed a heads up in: validation of sources. As I pointed out in my reply to Rusty, there is no intention here to accuse your or TTAG of any form of bias in regards to race/ethnicity. Rather when we evaluate data, we also have to evaluate where we get it from. In this case the original reference was to the Color of Crime report. Its author is a well documented white supremacist, as is the person that runs the organization through which he has now released three of these studies over the past 20 years. Though both, as I understand it, prefer to be called race realists. Given that knowing that African Americans are over represented in killing law enforcement officers, just as we know that they are over represented in interactions with law enforcement and the criminal justice system by itself doesn’t tell us much (this is likely a contributing, correlating factor). What the Color of Crime’s report author had produced isn’t research in so much as its polemic. He and the organization he’s affiliated with on this espouse a belief that there is an inherent and innate inferiority to African Americans and to those of African descent. Had you simply linked to either the Washington Post article or directly to the uniformed crime report and used that to pose the question: what needs to be done to better understand the phenomenon or linked to any of the published criminological research on the disparities of crime between different racial/ethnic communities in the US I would never have even commented. In this case the first source mentioned, even if the numbers are correct, is suspect given the purposes to which the source puts the numbers: to demonize a specific racial/ethnic group and to advocate for policies and strategies that would likely have nothing to do with resolving the problem.

        While knowing this particular statistical (percentage) factoid is interesting, it is only useful if it starts the inquiry that tries to unwind the phenomenon. And does so without conducting the research or making the point, such as is done in the Color of Crime report, in order to achieve a predetermined goal: the promotion of the belief of the innate and inherent superiority of whites over African Americans/people of African descent. From reading your work, as well as from reading TTAG, I have no doubt that neither you, RF, nor any of the other front pagers here have any interest in doing so.

          • Its a fraught topic. As I’m sure you’re aware, what we now know in regards to the dynamics of belief, including of factual material, is that even reasoned discussion has minimal effect on changing someone’s beliefs. This is fine. So freaking out isn’t going to resolve anything. And it sure isn’t going to get anyone to stop and think that maybe I, or anyone else, has a point.

            And Adam is fine.

        • “While knowing this particular statistical (percentage) factoid is interesting, it is only useful if it starts the inquiry that tries to unwind the phenomenon.”

          Information is only useful if it is put forward to promote a use of which you approve. That is an interesting point of view. I do not believe that the data put forward in the report shows an innate inferiority of black people. Ignoring the data has serious, real world policy implications for a subject that I have expertise in, which is the legislation affecting the ownership and use of firearms.

          The information is useful to show that crime rates are driven by cultural phenomena, not the laws concerning the ownership and use of firearms. From your work, I suspect that you already know that. A great many do not.

  9. All you have to do is watch the local news. There are shootings everyday in Pittsburgh, usually with fatalities. The shooters and the victims are almost exclusively black. How can you claim this is a racist statement when it is on television seven days a week? You don’the need statistics and data that can be twisted to fit any narrative, just watch the local news.

    • In my Rust Belt city of 150,000, young black male predators are prosecuting a low-intensity war against our law-abiding citizens. The city is 20% black, but 80% of our violent crimes are committed by blacks. Carjackings, home invasion robberies and murders, street and store stickups, car-to-car gunfights; these are part of our everyday life here. It’s not racist to point this out. The local news media try to hide the race and identities of the perps, and the local liberals beg for more “programs” that would supposedly mollify these predators, but we the citizenry are not fooled.

      • It does feel like guerrilla tactics at times, doesn’t it? They pick you off in the street one-by-one. People talk ironically about a race-war, but I really don’t know what else to call this ongoing monotonous pattern of black-on-white crime. Just because two sides aren’t lining up to shoot at one another, it doesn’t make it any less of a conflict. One side just seems to want to plug their fingers in their ears and pretend if they cut enough checks to BLM or the NAACP that it will all go away.

  10. Let’s all repeat what we’re constantly declaring when “statistics” come into play: CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION. Even if the stats seem to be in favor of “your” argument.

    Questions I have looking over these stats: what is the frequency of police interaction among the population, by demographic? How are unreported crimes factored for? What about unsolved crimes where the race of the perpetrator was unknown? What’s the population sample size, and how was it selected? How did the researchers account for differing reporting practices from city to city (LA’s definition of an arrest or crime might vary from NYC’s, for example. Maybe LA counts an arrest by cuffs on an individual, while NYC counts actual charges filed, while Chicago counts charges filed, but not if charges were dropped later, etc., etc.) The list could go on.

    In short, I’m as likely to rely on this report as I am on one from anyone associated with Bloomberg. The fact that this study has connections with a think tank with ties to a white supremacist makes me highly suspicious of the motives.

  11. The actual percentage of murders committed by African-American is probably higher than the reported 52.5% by a fairly substantial margin.

    Source: BJS, “Homicide Trends in the United States 1980-2008”

    About a third of the murders in the US are not cleared. The unsolved homicides are disproportionately urban and black, and committed by other blacks. In Chicago no suspect is arrested in two thirds of the homicides. It’s about the same in Detroit and Atlanta and New Orleans, all high bodycount cities that collectively have a significant effect of the nationwide statistics. The unsolved homicides are mostly the result of anonymous urban street violence. That’s why the actual percentage of murders committed by blacks nationwide is closer to 60%.

    Source:
    Steffensmeier, “Reassessing Trends in Black Violent Crime, 1980-2008”
    Scripps Howard News Service, “Murder Mysteries”

    • When the President glorifies Thuglife and attempts to criminalize decent law abiding tax-paying citizens, it invigorates bad behavior. Most violent crime rates had been on the decline for decades until the current administration took over.

  13. Single parent Black single families are much higher than Whites.
    Black and Hispanic education levels are much lower than Whites.
    Cincy Black wages are much lower than Whites in Cincy.
    Whites lag Orientals in the USA for education.
    Probably might have something to do with the above article.
    From other sources:
    http://bearingarms.com/black-america-bloody-mess/
    http://www.guns.com/2016/03/04/half-of-us-homicide-victims-black-85-percent-killed-with-guns/
    http://bearingarms.com/study-indiana-epicenter-black-homicides-gun-control-advocates-blame-lax-gun-laws/

  14. It makes sense: 13 percent of the population and 52 percent of the murders, that’s about 4x right there.

    It’s not a matter of racism. More of them just happen to be impoverished or unemployed, and therefore more likely to join gangs, get into drugs, rob and kill.

    Imagine if Bloomberg invested his millions toward improving run-down communities, instead of promoting gun control. he could potentially cut the murder rate in half if he did that, instead of trying to pass stupid, counterproductive gun control policies.

      • It’s not clear that’s true. If you break down crime rates by income levels, blacks still far out-offend whites.

    • 90%+ overwhelming black males. That’s only about 8% of the US population. The females really have little to do with killing. Statistically more violent than white women, but both are rather a sidenote to the game of murder.

  15. It doesn’t serve this site well to “go there.” Even if the statistics are true, there is no way you can publish something like this without inviting the racist label. There are too many other valid, upstanding ways to beat the pro-gun drum than to step in it this deeply. I suggest that you let some other website play the race card. It’s not worth it to do it here.

    • Disagree. It may be controversial but this issue has real consequences for gun owners. Leftists are constantly pointing out that the United States has more gun deaths than other Western European countries. To the extent that this is true, it is because black communities are violent, dangerous places in the Unite States, with their own problems that are largely unique in American society. European countries do not have as many black people.

      I read a study once that showed how strikingly clear the correlation between race and crime really is. If you exclude black gun violence from the American numbers, the per capita rate of gun homicides in European countries and the USA is roughly the same.

  16. There are millions of decent, hard working black people out there. I don’t carry a gun because of black people. I carry a gun because of robbers and thieves, and their color is irrelevant.

    And no, I don’t cross the street merely because I see a group of black people walking my way, but I do cross the street when I see a group of young men of any color walking my way. Because young men commit most of the violent crime.

    So does poverty create crime, or does crime create poverty? Some of both, I think. And no race is above it, immune from it or has a monopoly on it.

    • Ralph,

      I believe poverty can certainly drive petty theft. I do not believe that poverty drives rape, brutal assaults, and murder like we see in poverty stricken areas in the United States.

      The primary driver of violent crime: when the family breaks down and no one teaches children to be responsible, to respect human life, and to respect other people’s property.

    • >> So does poverty create crime, or does crime create poverty?

      Poverty breeds crime pretty much everywhere. There’s an obvious economic connection there – when your own life isn’t worth much, your health is poor, and you don’t have much property to worry about, then you’re going to treat other people’s lives, health and property in a similar way.

      To what extent crime creates poverty depends on the system. Obviously there are some aspects to it that are universal – if you have a high rate of property crimes, for example, then that hinders accumulation of wealth. If wealthy people are preferentially targeted, it disincentivizes working for success.

      But in US, for example, a very significant – I would argue, predominant – effect on crime wrt poverty is the artificial loss of opportunity caused by the system. Basically, once a young adult is arrested and charged for a crime, their prospects of living a normal, productive life thereafter are ruined – first they will be exposed to a crime culture in prison, and potentially to highly traumatic experiences like prison rape. Then they’re thrown out on the streets, with a criminal record making it extremely difficult to find a decent job, and without access to many types of welfare that could potentially allow them to make ends meet while looking for a job or getting education. It’s no surprise that many of these resort to crime again. Worse yet, if they already have a family, all these economic woes also apply to their kids, which makes it that much more likely that they will get involved in crime at an early age, too.

      • int19h,

        I used to share your mindset that poverty drives crime. And then some insightful person reminded me of huge populations of very poor people all around the world that have very low crime rates.

        Poverty may very well amplify the magnitude and seriousness of crimes in crime-prone areas. But I don’t believe poverty itself is a major factor in creating crime-prone areas.

        • >> And then some insightful person reminded me of huge populations of very poor people all around the world that have very low crime rates.

          Can you give a specific example?

          And note that a single such case is just one data point. If you look at the overall correlation between poverty and crime, it has a very high degree, whether you look at it country by country, or at specific states/regions within countries, or at cities etc.

        • See; homicide rates in India and Micronesia. But don’t look at the rape numbers, whatever you do. It is my go to argument when euros stand aghast at our 2x murder rate; “would you halve your own murder rate, and double the rape, by adopting their culture? Than why should we adopt yours (w/higher home invasion, etc.)?”

          • Does this account for other factors known to correlate with crime rates, such as population density?

        • The question should be : What compels one group of people to construct spectacular societies based on individual rights and moral fortitude, forged by hard work and blood, while another is content to live in the stone age?

          Our cultures are uniquely ethnocentric expressions. The mind and natural dispositions of the caucasoid is much different from that of the negroids or mongoids.

          These used to be self evident truths. Only after decades of cultural Marxist propaganda could a people (ours) be so utterly confused. Equality does not exist in the natural world.

        • int19h,

          A specific example? Yes, poor whites in America (and everywhere else in the world that publishes crime stats). This has been known data for 30+ years. That the bad behavior of blacks is somehow a direct effect of poverty, was thoroughly discredited back when I was in HS.

          That does not not mean all blacks are bad, just they have a greater propensity to committing violence.

          • Are you claiming that all the white countries out there, no matter how poor, show lower crime rates that black communities in US?

        • No, the numbers say that no matter what country you are in that has “white folks” in it, the blacks will commit a statistically disproportionate amount of crime.

          Australia, Austria, Denmark, the UK, anywhere. Blacks commit more crime. Especially violent ones. Look at the numbers.

          • In all those countries, blacks are imported population, and whites are native. They never had an equal ground, socially speaking.

            But if you look at, say, Estonia, guess who is the most criminal ethnic group? It’s white Russians. Who are also an imported group.

            And in Serbia? It’s Albanians.

            So, a much simpler explanation is that it’s the non-integrated, non-assimilated population that is more susceptible to crime. Well, duh.

        • Let’s look at SA, shall we?

          http://www.nationalreview.com/article/398136/end-south-africa-josh-gelernter

          Even the King of the Zulus says that life was better under the white rule, even apartheid…

          http://newobserveronline.com/zulu-king-blacks-destroying-south-africa/

          http://businesstech.co.za/news/government/106411/zulu-king-apartheid-government-respected-me/

          But seriously, let’s look at the US, with a firmly entranced white poor class. They don’t commit crime at the rate the blacks do.

    • That is a great anecdotal opinion you have there, but what does it have to do with the article other than virtue signalling against the statistics?

    • There is no real powerty in America. American “poor” wear brand name shoes and clothes. They drive cars and have often obesity problems.
      Does this “powerty light” cause crime or does crime cause powerty? Neither. Laziness, bad upbringing and feeling of entitlement causes both.

  17. The problem with your analysis is that it is circular in places. For example, those crime rate stats are derived from arrest numbers, so if blacks are more likely to be arrested for doing something than whites are, then the crime rate is going to indicate that blacks commit that particular crime more, even if that is not necessarily true in practice.

    Given that racial bias on individual level has been shown by many studies (e.g. measuring how long it takes to assess someone as “criminal” or “bystander”, and what the error rate is, shows that cops are definitely biased in favor of treating blacks as criminals), I would caution against hasty conclusions.

    • Unless you think whites are sneaking into black neighborhoods and committing thousands of murders undetected you’re going to need another theory.

  18. This article is a perfect illustration of why we should not even talk about statistics in the context of fundamental, unalienable human rights.

    Several commenters have called the validity and accuracy of the purported data and corresponding conclusions into question. Determining the veracity of the data and conclusions could take a team of scholars days or weeks.

    Meanwhile, numbers have no bearing on our fundamental, unalienable right to self-defense. The numbers are a distraction.

  22. So… What does this lead to? Does this mean race and crime has a correlation? Does this mean that race really does matter? Then… Do we begin to eradicate these sub humans from civilized society?

      • Yes, yes, and by “eradicate” if you mean “incarcerate” till they can’t breed, than yeah.

        All blacks aren’t bad. As Chris Rock very astutely observed years ago, “You know who really hates ‘n—-rs’? Black people.”

  23. Thank you for publishing these facts. Regardless of whether you find them distasteful is not important, what is important is that they exist, and that if reducing crime is the goal actions other than banning guns are on the table.

  24. Of course there is SOME truth to this. And my spidey sense tingles when a group of black youts come near me. I don’t get that tingle when white boys do. Sorry Ralph. And I like black folks-they are my family. However in Chicago it appears more black folks are shot(and killed) by the po-leece. Like 2 days ago. Honestly reality slaps you in the face around here. Black lives splatter…

  25. Fun watching the racists come out of the woodwork supporting this. Good job, TTAG. Now you can’t complain about Al Sharpton, et. al.’s race-baiting.

  26. Gotta love how the statists include a bunch of non-crimes like “weapon law violations” and “drug offenses” in the list.

    Also any statistics on the statistical outlier of minorities murdered by cops? Oh right, the government doesn’t even require cops keep those statistics. How convenient.

  27. No real research would have conclusions like “if there were no Blacks in NYC.” It’s agenda driven. You hate it when Bloomberg’s people do it but it’s okay when it’s about Blacks? You believe that crime would drop that much? Maybe because there are few poor whites in jail.

    Trust me from my jail visits there are plenty of violent whites in there!

  28. Hm. So following the logic of this report; if the gubmit denies we black folk our 2nd Amendment rights altogether, the murder rate would go down over 90 percent?

    • “So following the logic of this report; if the gubmit denies we black folk our 2nd Amendment rights altogether, the murder rate would go down over 90 percent?”

      Just the opposite IMHO. It’s already the case that these dangerous neighborhoods tend to be located in places where guns are heavily restricted. If the law abiding blacks were allowed to own guns they could protect themselves and the population of violent dirt bags would be reduced.

    • No, blacks would still be wreaking havok, guns just make it easier. What these statistics indicate is that if we had repatriated all former slaves to Liberia as Monroe and Lincoln suggested, our white country would be far more pristine, you know, like it was in the 60s when America was still around 90% white.

      But lets keep pretending that we’re all the same and that nature doesn’t abhor “Equality.”

  29. #CommissionRatesOfMurderAndWeaponsCrimeMATTER

    Black males 15-45 are 3% of the population.

    The fact that this 3% of the population is 26% of people killed by police, a nearly 10x over per capita rate, is the basis for BLM’s claims

    But this population also commits 50.6% of all murder and >52% of all weapons felonies. BLM and the media is falling for a classic fallacy and specious logic that anyone who has stats 101 would see as bad stats: presumption of equal risk in the overall data set (all people).

    Clearly the risk factor in bad outcomes with police (getting shot by a cop) is commission rates of hyper violent crimes.

    Per murder committed blacks males are actually 27% LESS likely to be shot by police than the rest of the population. Per capita whites who are not violent felons are MORE likely to be shot by police than blacks are.

  30. Whatever the source, the conclusions of the report are broadly in agreement with FBI, Bureau of Justice Statistics, and NYPD figures. The Bureau of Justice Statistics shows that blacks commit murder at nearly eight times the rate of whites. This sort of disparity is mirrored in every other category of violent crime.

    While it may get the hippie’s panties in twist, the fact of the matter is, as a whole the black America has a huge problem with crime, particularly violent crime. It will continue to be this way as long as the problem is obfuscated and enabled. The problem is not poverty or racism, the problem is communities that embrace criminal shithead-ism as an identity.

    During the summer, in my old neighborhood, it wasn’t uncommon to pass two or three ghetto-shrines memorializing the spot where some asshole’s bad decision making had caught up with him. It was the sort of neighborhood where gunfire wasn’t particularly noteworthy and you always traveled with a friend. This led me ponder the circumstances of my neighborhood. We had great weather, good public transit, everything you needed was close by, and despite being a little rundown the area didn’t look so bad. The thing that sucked was the people. It was a community that had decided stupid lazy and violent was an acceptable lifestyle. Until this changes, there will be no change.

  31. Every time I see a map like this I am reminded that the east half of the country is a hell hole and I would never live there. I will move back to north, montana and the dakotas.

  32. Terrible article. In addition to the credulous approach to a dubious “study” from a suspicious source, the article itself is riddled with racist language. “A black”, “A white”? Black, white, Asian are not NOUNS, they are ADJECTIVES. This is the sort of nomenclature used by ignorant racists, i.e. “The blacks love me!”.

    I would expect this kind of article (and many of the comments, sadly) on a site like stormfront. TTAG should really think long and hard about where they want to go with the site and what kind of readership they want to have.

  33. Racism is a concept created by the Cultural Marxists in order to help destroy Western Civilization. Until the 20th Century, “racism” was simply called survival.

    • Chris: Your grasp of marxism is even worse than your grasp of racism. Alas, your educators have failed you, or you have failed them.

    • Spot on. Racism is completely natural. Its decades of cultural Marxist conditioning that has sculpted our weak minds to become anti racists.

      It doesn’t mean we want violence or genocide, just a return to homogenous nations.

      Africa for Africans, Asia for Asians and white countries for everybody! Isn’t diversity grand?

  34. “Blacks have notably high crime rates. This pattern holds true for virtually all crime categories and for virtually all age groups.”

    And which race has the most vocal groups touting the state of their entitlement? I bet it gets easier for anyone of any race to commit a crime when you are constantly reminded about how things are “owed” to you and how “everyone” is “keeping you down”. I will never understand about how you can achieve equality between groups by applying inequitable practices to one group.

    Equal is equal, life is not golf, you don’t get a handicap to make your score equitable to someone who might be better at the game than you are. I’m not against helping someone up; I am against holding them up for so long that the person no longer even understands the concept of standing on their own.

  35. Wow. I did not know that the black race to crime correlation was so strong. These facts might be uncomfortable but we can only fix problems by acknowledging that they exist. Actually such a strong correlation should make it easier to design targeted solutions which could result in huge reductions in the national crime numbers. What a missed opportunity for Obama, as the first black president. He should have shouted these statistics far wide to enable social programs focused like a laser to repair black communities. Imagine achieving huge drops in national crime rates while uplifting a historically discriminated against minority. That would have been presidential legacy material. Ironically the only president you hear talking about black on black crime is Bill Clinton. Maybe Bill really was the first black president.

  36. From 1980 to 2013, there were 2,269 officers killed in felonious incidents, and 2,896 offenders. The racial breakdown of offenders over the 33-year period was on par with the 10-year period: 52 percent were white, and 41 percent were black. 8 out of 9 cops were killed by white men between Jan and Feb. of this year. If you are going to create a racist article, at least make it accurate. This is propaganda at its best. You all are the biggest threat to society and police. Not African Americans.

      • Kojo forgot that blacks comprise only about 13 % of population. Or he just can’t math. Common core maybe?
        But he sure is quick to call you a propagandist and threat to police and society. Oh – and RACEEEEEES!

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