Taiwan artillery unit conducts a live firing drill to deter a coastal landing force during the Han Guang exercise held on the island of Penghu county, Taiwan(Military News Agency via AP)

You can read part one of this article here. 

With the events of the last few years, Taiwanese and American officials have been making changes to better protect the island from invasion. Arms purchases, such as the upgraded F-16V fighters, have continued or accelerated. 

But mentioned in part one of this article, equipment isn’t enough without training and maintenance. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has promised to increase military readiness and revealed that U.S. military trainers have been working with Taiwan’s military to develop better training for a battle against a much larger foe.

President Tsai has also promised enhanced training and preparedness for reserve forces starting next year, so improved training should filter into the larger reserve force.

If there’s enough time to implement these changes along with increased U.S. military aid that’s under debate in Congress, Taiwan’s force of almost four million personnel could become a lot more potent. 

Why It’s Not Enough

The reforms that were recently announced will take years to translate into training, knowledge and improved capability on the part of reservists, and still would only amount to about a third of the training National Guard personnel in the United States get.

Even if Taiwan were to train and equip its reserve forces to U.S. National Guard levels, there’s still the issue of organization. A military reserve that’s built around a traditional symmetrical military model simply cannot perform under the pressure that it’s likely to face under a People’s Liberation Army invasion. 

Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Before the attacks, we can expect the PLA to continue their grey-zone warfare against the island, slowly ratcheting up intimidating military actions that fall just short of an actual attack that justifies a Taiwanese response. This continual “cry wolf” strategy will likely prevent the reserves from being called up and armed before an actual invasion occurs.

Taiwan would likely find that the initial air and missile attacks cripple their ability to even get to their armories (assuming they aren’t destroyed in the opening missile attack). Even if that problem were somehow solved, they’d still have only basic straight-line range training (often with only a few dozen rounds of live-fire experience) and be thrown into a complex urban environment with a rifle.

A J-20 stealth fighter jet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

To prepare to go toe-to-toe with the PLA and limit collateral damage, Taiwan’s reserves need a serious overhaul, and not just a few more days or weeks of training. And that needs to happen fast.

Some in the U.S. and Taiwan Have A Better Idea

Recent U.S. bills that would provide more military aid for Taiwan require that the Taiwanese military undertake serious reforms, spend less money on big-ticket military hardware purchases, and prepare for asymmetric warfare. Some Taiwanese civilians are skeptical that their military represents the whole solution.

One group, the Forward Alliance, already trains large groups of civilians in first aid and survival skills, but its leader, Enoch Wu, told The Telegraph that he hopes the effort will lay the foundation for a future civil defense force. “We hope that this capability will deter war. Civil defence is a big part of that equation,” Wu told The Telegraph.

High quality firearms and defensive tactics training (often simulated with airsoft guns) is already available from at least one private Taiwanese entity, the Taiwan Military and Police Tactics Research and Development Association or TTRDA. The TTRDA doesn’t advocate for licensing the carry of weapons for arbitrary purposes as is done in nearly all of the United States. But it does seek to make training available and supports some limited expansion of Taiwan’s weapons licensing for national defense purposes.

According to TTRDA, no new laws would be needed, and such changes could happen administratively.

TTRDA already works with military and police personnel both from Taiwan and from other countries, and they’re ready to assist with any expanded programs the government may choose to offer if they can get over their mistrust of arms in the hands of the public. 

In other words, Taiwanese civilians and overseas supporters are not only willing, but ready to help get the island’s civilians up to speed and prepared to complicate and frustrate any invasion. More importantly, putting this work in might prevent one from even happening.

Some Americans Are Willing To Help

I’ve seen many online discussions where Americans ask whether Taiwan has a foreign legion they could join. There was also a recent letter to the editor of the Washington Post, where a retired U.S. Marine called for U.S. military personnel to directly defend the island. He closed by saying, “However, because I am advocating putting Marines in harm’s way, I cannot do this without accepting the same risk. I am a retired reserve Marine Corps colonel (four active, 28 reserve), and I will accept a recall to active duty to join the troops on one of the islands.”

Why are some of willing to help people we’ve never met? Mostly because we know that democracy and human rights are the rare exception, historically. If freedom falls often enough, the world could lose it, perhaps forever. We have to fight authoritarianism at every turn to prevent this from happening, and not selfishly wait until we’re fighting for our own homes. We know that, unlike Afghanistan, Taiwan’s people believe in and practice freedom and would make good use of our help.

As a member of the LGBT community, I can also see that Taiwan is an important island of freedom in a region that isn’t generally friendly to rights we take for granted now in Europe and North America. I also see that in China, efforts are underway to undermine and eliminate LGBT rights. 

I know not all Americans agree with me in this, but it’s just one example among many of Taiwan’s tolerance and freedom compared to Xi Jinping’s iron-fisted authoritarian approach that we can’t allow to spread globally. No one, from the most devout conservative Christian to the most socially liberal atheist is safe to be themselves if the CCP becomes the dominant world power. Freedom is freedom, and people like Xi Jinping don’t like it.

We can all hang together on this, or the CCP will eventually hang us separately.

Why An Armed American Civilian Presence Would Be Beneficial

While distrust of foreigners (I’ve experienced this in person in Taiwan) is understandable (we aren’t perfect), Taiwan’s government is throwing away a valuable opportunity by refusing the assistance of American veterans and trained civilians.

For one, the mere presence of large numbers of Americans who are ready to help repel a CCP invasion could itself prevent such an invasion. Chinese state-run media openly says that they think the United States will be unwilling to sacrifice American lives to protect the island from an invasion. A rapid increase in the number of Americans helping to protect it would put that appraisal of U.S. resolve in doubt. 

They also know that if large numbers of American civilians were to die, that could trigger more of a “Pearl Harbor” or “9/12” response than an “it’s not my problem” response among the American public. Killing Americans could help turn world opinion against the CCP. Facing the possibility of waking multiple sleeping giants shifts the calculus in Taiwan’s favor without firing a shot.

It’s also a fact that there’s just a lot more American gun and fighting expertise available than there is in Taiwan’s civilian population. Over the last few decades, the rapid expansion of concealed carry laws and greater interest in modern sporting rifles has led to an explosion of instructors, trained students, and general fighting knowledge.

Sadly, the average American CCW permit holder or hunter has more training and experience with firearms and defensive tactics than most Taiwanese reservists — and many regulars — and that’s before you count the many veterans (some of whom have seen combat) who would be willing to assist.

Finally, in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, many Americans are still working remotely and could continue to provide for themselves from anywhere with an internet connection. This means that there are many experienced veterans, retired and reserve police officers, part-time firearms instructors, hunters, and vetted firearms permit holders who could theoretically move to Taiwan and not put a strain on the island’s economy.

In fact, with the island’s generally low cost of living, their spending power would be an economic stimulus.

How Taiwan Can Help Encourage This

The Tsai administration should work to actively encourage American gun owners with clean backgrounds and training to move to the island and actively assist in the improvement of the island’s defense. Assistance with moving expenses, help with finding housing, language training (both in Mandarin and Taiwanese), and regular shuttle flights to and from the United States could all make it easier for Americans to volunteer.

(AP Photo/Andy Wong)

To attract Americans to do this will require at least some liberalization of the island’s gun laws. While it would be ideal for Taiwan to follow the example of almost half of the United States and allow permitless carry, I’m a realist and know that may be politically impossible in Taiwan at present.

Requiring some form of training, a background check, and education on basic language and Taiwan’s use of force laws could make it more palatable, though. Americans could apply for a special national defense carry permit at a TECRO office (basically a Taiwan embassy or consulate) and apply for any other help Taiwan might provide for this program.

Such a program, should, of course, be open to eligible Taiwanese citizens, as foreigners shouldn’t get any special rights that Taiwan’s own people don’t have any access to.

This would require some a lot of open-mindedness among Taiwanese officials, but it’s worth making the necessary adjustments to address an existential threat. It also shouldn’t be seen as Americanization as much as shedding the last vestiges of the White Terror. 

I hope that the decades of American support for Taiwan’s young democracy has earned us enough trust for us to have the honor of helping out.

 

To read part one, click here. 

 

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109 COMMENTS

  1. Taiwan, Ukraine etc etc etc
    We’ve got plenty of our own issues
    This is just another ordeal to get into so some politicians can make some money

  2. Why would I risk my life to defend a country that has restricted its own citizens human and civil rights? Why would I go there, hat in hand, and beg them to allow me to kill for them while they treat me as a pariah?

    From a practical point of view. The PLA are not an unstoppable threat. They have had very little real combat experience on a large scale since Korea. And when they did try a ground war against Viet Nam they got their asses handed to them.

    And Taiwan is an island. It’s close to the homeland but it’s still an island.

    When I see the leaders of the alphabet sexual groups stand up and declare constitutional carry the right of all I’ll speak out in their favor. Not until then.

    • From some online analysis, if the PLA attempted an amphibious invasion, they will take severe losses, even with air superiority.

      Enough to make it a pyrrhic victory at best and a stalemate at worst. Most of Taiwan’s west coast is swamp which is unsuitable for amphibious landings. There is one large beach and two smaller beaches on the west coast which are suitable. And all have urban areas behind the beach. Ideal for containing the landed forces while reducing the resupply and reinforcements.

      And do the Taiwanese want to be “liberated”?

      • “Enough to make it a pyrrhic victory at best and a stalemate at worst.”

        The Chinese will have *zero* qualms about suffering a massive loss of life, if it means they get Taipei under their thumb…

        • The PLA have been expressing their concerns over such an attack. PLA veterans have not forgotten the casualties the Vietnamese gave then in the late 70s.

          And the PLA got kicked hard when they tried an amphibious invasion of one of the Taiwanese islands that was only a few miles from the mainland. A few M3 light tanks more or less massacred the invasion force.

          To take Taiwan, the PLA would have take some islands half way across the straight as a staging area. But those islands are well within range of artillery and rocket range of the main Taiwan island. The invasion force would then have to run the gauntlet and so would any resupply and reinforcements.

      • I think Communists consider a victory to be a victory, however pyrrhic it may be. A million dead? Two million? You write their names on a monument, and call them martyrs for the cause, and the population at large is appeased. It’s not like Xi’s sons or daughters are likely to die in the fighting.

        • But with a lot of one child families, a lot of parents are not going to be happy to see their children die for national honor.

          Even the PLA high command, which dismisses it’s own troops in reports as “wimps, sissies, and little emperors”, is concerned about losses in such an attack. Also the troops in the western provinces are not only changing their commanders every 8 months or so, but they are noted in reports as having an addiction to self-pleasuring.

      • “if the PLA attempted an amphibious invasion, they will take severe losses”

        the chinese communist party ruling class families that give the orders will not.

        “do the Taiwanese want to be ‘liberated’?”

        some of them do.

        • rant7, The Taiwanese don’t need to be liberated. They already are. What they need is help to keep their freedom.

      • The Smart Play is make the country Poison if they Do Attack. Plant several Nuclear Dirty Bombs around the Country. Since the Chinese will likely Kill, Imprison or make Slaves out of the Taiwanese people. Like they’ve done with the Uyghurs in Western China. If they Attack leave them Nothing, but a Worthless rock in the Middle of the Ocean. While Killing as many Chinese as Possible. Especially since the Prevailing Winds move East to West in that part of the world.

    • jwm Any threat can be stopped. Why would you want to fight for someone else’s freedom?
      “He who is not willing to fight and die for freedom’s sake, will lose his freedom and deserves to.” (Ben Franklin)
      As to their “human rights”? They have adopted the democratic ways over the years. At least they have voting where the voter has to show voter ID limiting voter fraud, unlike the US.

  3. China could pave over Taiwan and build a shopping center and there is nothing any nation would or could do about it and I seriously doubt there’s enough goodwill left among allies nations to partner up for such an endeavor. Especially when they’re all too busy burning their own nations down simping to trannies and hiding from the omnicold.

    • “I seriously doubt there’s enough goodwill left among allies nations to partner up for such an endeavor.”

      sure they would. china is in fact fairly strong, and potentially stronger than anyone else. opposition to them must come early and on the front line – meaning taiwan – or south korea, japan, the philippines, viet nam et al, australia, and new zealand will all be swallowed up. this will leave india facing china alone, which they won’t win. so yeah, everyone will stand together.

  4. Sounds similar to what we routinely read here.

    In the end, Taiwan cannot stand up to serious economic and political attacks. The Chicoms are quite adept at non-military persuasion around the world.

    On the force side, China has ~2,035,000 personnel in the PLA (PLA is every military organization, police and reserves). However, it is relatively simple to give arms to completely untrained personnel, and point them to landing beaches to absorb bullets. Some of the fodder will actually be effective.

    Should China forcefully attack Taiwan, the island will be blockades, cutting off assistance and resupply of weapons.

    Also, one must not discount a “provocation” incident where the Chicoms declare, similar to the Russians, that China must invade in order to protect indigenous Chinese from terror attacks, or armed oppression of people of Chinese descent. The world sent angry letters to the Russians regarding invasion of Ukraine and Georgia. At that point, Taiwan will be blockaded.

    Does anyone believe that the US, NATO, ASEAN, or any other coalition will mount a scramble response designed to “save Taiwan”? Just do a simple look around. How many of your neighbors who vote are willing to see the US risking a nuclear response (or even large scale conventional ship and personnel losses) for siding with Taiwan? Or anywhere else, for that matter.

    Our empire is slipping away, and the US is no longer the world’s economic giant, capable of destroying economies of unwilling trade partners. The Chinese rattle sabres, but buy up nations.

    • “However, it is relatively simple to give arms to completely untrained personnel, and point them to landing beaches to absorb bullets.”

      The math won’t work, the Chinese can *easily* absorb a horrific casualty rate since Taiwan only has 20-odd million people and China has over a *billion* they can draw upon…

      • Geoff PR,

        I think that was Sam I Am’s point–that China can accept a GINORMOUS number of casualties. (China could rack up 50 million casualties without missing a beat.)

        I know there are people who will claim that throwing bodies forward as machine gun fodder will ultimately fail. I disagree. The simple fact of the matter is that a machine gun station cannot send an infinite number of rounds down range. At some point a station’s machine gun barrel will overheat or wear out, a machine gun will break, and/or they will run out of ammunition. Even if that takes 50,000 rounds to happen, China could easily overrun 100 such machine gun stations if they were willing to accept 50 million casualties. And that assumes that every single machine gun bullet kills an invading Chinese person and that the Chinese invasion force has no ability to neutralize any machine gun station (unlikely).

        Note that Russia did the exact same thing in World War II against the Germans. What was the final number, something like 20 million Russian soldiers killed in action? The Russians simply kept conscripting Russian men (of which they had plenty), handing them a rifle (typically a bolt-action Mosin-Nagant designed 40 years earlier) and a modest amount of ammunition, then pointed them at the Germans and set them loose.

    • a blockade would raise serious issues…especially if large amounts of foreign nationals including Americans remain on the island…that might bring us into it…

      • “…especially if large amounts of foreign nationals including Americans remain on the island.”

        The Chinese were not absent when we left Afghanistan. The watched; they observed. They drew conclusions.

        A blockade could be manipulated to achieve Chinese goals. They haven’t abandoned Sun Tsu: “Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” ““All warfare is based on deception.”

        Be aware the Chinese are making mischief while focusing our attention on Taiwan, and our own internal politics.

      • What is it that you are really afraid of? HOW would a blockade effect any Americans who might be on Taiwan? Please be specific?

      • Saving Americans trapped in a hostile country appears to be priority zero of the Biden administration.

      • “carriers are viewed as sovereign territory…sinking one might be a really bad idea….”

        For whom? Don’t forget, DOD admitted that every war game against China ended up with a US loss.

        • I have to ask, what were the parameters of these ‘war games”? There are those in the DOD who have no idea of what the DOD is supposed to be about.

        • It would be all over but the shooting of those Taiwanese that opposed them, realistically.
          I can’t see the current regime occupying the Oval Orifice, offering much more than token support and a lot of rhetoric (for which they’ll apologize profusely to the Chicory, and offer reparations for).

          I’d like to believe my predictions wrong, but I don’t believe it will be, unfortunately.

    • consider a Chinese invasion as communist aggression and use that as an excuse to Nuke them into the stone age.
      Might as well do it on foreign soil as opposed to waiting for them to bring it here.
      Saint ETWAGIOW (that’s ,”End the world and get it over with” for those of you who didn’t read the book.)

      • “consider a Chinese invasion as communist aggression and use that as an excuse to Nuke them into the stone age.”

        If you’ve ever seen video of rural China, it’s pretty much the stone age, today…

      • “Might as well do it on foreign soil as opposed to waiting for them to bring it here.”

        Wouldn’t that require Russia staying out of the fight?

        Along with the presumption China wouldn’t nuke everything within range?

        • Not to mention that “within range” includes most US cities. Idiots advocating the US go to nuclear war over a fucking island fail to comprehend the basic military balance. These idiots seriously want to lose 50-100 million US citizens so they can indulge their Rambo fantasies.

          And you’re correct about Russia – Russia and China have a de facto military alliance now, if not an official mutual defense pact. And Russia can drop nuclear weapons on the US all day long without the US having any defense against that whatsoever absent the second strike capability which has deterrent value only. Once the US starts a nuclear war, deterrence no longer applies.

        • Richard Steven Hack One great Benjamin Franklin quote: Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

  5. When, not if, China invades it will be total destruction of the island. WMDs and tactical nukes. The Chi-Coms do NOT care about the people or the infrastructure or world opinion. Joe Biden was bought and paid for. He will do nothing when it happens. The worst part is that they will likely destroy one of our carriers and some other of our Naval vessels and Biden will do NOTHING!

    • “When, not if, China invades it will be total destruction of the island. WMDs and tactical nukes.”

      *Highly* doubtful, as the international community will be motivated to try and strangle China’s industry by going full embargo on them.

      Pretty much anything China has via resources are available elsewhere, but it will hammer the world’s economy.

      As I mentioned yesterday, what needs to happen is for countries that hate China (lots!) to step up and begin producing the pharmaceutical precursor chemicals (the building blocks) of those medicines…

    • China has no interest in destroying Taiwan. There will be no nukes used.

      If the US confronts China over Taiwan, yes, US carriers will go to the bottom of the Pacific.

  6. I’ve no idea how committed the CCP is on taking Taiwan.
    They were stopped by the Vietnamese not to long ago.
    The U. S.A. can blame itself for the power of China. After all it is our money they’ve used to build up their economy.
    In part one the discussion of imports came up, a few commenters referred we could get our products from other third world countries. Why does the U S need to do that? Why can not we buy our socks internally. Because of money that’s why.
    My factory can get it done over seas cheaper and in the meantime Our country gets weaker.
    Had I been president when it all started , constitution be damned, if you want to take your factory overseas then you can sale your goods to that country but not here.
    The toilet paper crises has shown me just how dependent the U S has become on imports, my goodness, we cant even make enough sht wipe to meet Our nation’s needs.

    • “I’ve no idea how committed the CCP is on taking Taiwan.
      They were stopped by the Vietnamese not to long ago.”

      China learned from that one. The wildcard is Xi’s ego.

      He just declared himself as ruler for life. For him to throw the dice is a perfectly rational act, from his perspective. After all, he can trade a lot more lives than Taiwan can…

      • The subs they want are from Scandinavia.

        AIP – Air-independent propulsion.

        A diesel-electric submarine with a dewar of LO2 onboard…

    • From the Article:
      “I also see that in China, efforts are underway to undermine and eliminate LGBT rights. ”

      You misunderstand Chinese government. There ARE NO RIGHTS. Everything we may think of as rights are only permissions the Chinese government grants to it’s subjects and can arbitrarily take away .

    • “I’ve no idea how committed the CCP is on taking Taiwan.”

      Try extremely committed. This is an existential issue of history and territory for them. It’s like if Hawaii seceded from the US. China would prefer that Taiwan be integrated back into mainland China via negotiation – but the US is encouraging Taiwan to secede officially and become an independent country. China will never allow this. They remember colonial history and the civil war – fought against the people currently ruling Taiwan.

      “They were stopped by the Vietnamese not to long ago.”

      That was in 1974, dude. And Vietnam fought China over the Spratly Islands and lost. Things have changed since then.

      The Pentagon claims China doesn’t have enough amphibious landing craft to land enough troops on Taiwan to insure a takeover. I take that with a huge bucket of salt. First, they have certain civilian ships called “rollon/roll off” that can be used to deliver troops and armor.

      Second: China Building Formidable Amphibious Fleet – https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/6/25/china-building-formidable-amphibious-fleet

      China reportedly converted civilian ferries for amphibious assault operations – https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/08/04/china-reportedly-converted-civilian-ferries-for-amphibious-assault-operations/

      Mind the Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion – https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how-chinas-civilian-shipping-could-enable-a-taiwan-invasion/

    • me too…that’s first and foremost…they’ll have to prove themselves on the battlefield before any outside help can be considered…they’re an unknown quantity at this point…

  8. The Left and Xiden pitched a fit when COVID was called the China virus. Does anyone think Brandon would actually stand up to the CCP? Xi is clearly planning an invasion my best guess is in about 14 to 18 months. Timed for after the midterms and well before a Republican replaces the senile guy. They will save Japan and Australia for later.

    FJB!

    • “Timed for after the midterms and well before a Republican replaces the senile guy.”

      I agree on the potential time-table.

      The risk for the Democrats is, if FJB does nothing substantial, that will likely hand the election to the Republicans.

      As it sits now, they will lose the mid terms (Senate), and that means freezing out Democrat chances to replace a retiring leftist SCotUS justice, should a position open up.

      And boy-howdy, will that ever piss off the Leftist Scum something fierce. A 6-3 court balance could possibly turn into a 7-2 nightmare for them, and a 7-2 dream for us.

      And the blame will lie at their own feet. They chose to run the HildaBeast, when they could have had a President Bernie in 2016.

      But, noooooooooooooooo! 😉

      • Agreed. I’m registered Independent. Seldom vote for Dems, mostly vote for Independents and third party. Given a choice between a D and an R, I’ll probably, but not always go with the R.

        If Bernie had been nominated, and ended up on the ballot, I *might have* voted for him.

        Seriously, the best thing I can say about Trump is, he was better than the alternative, in both cases. Bernie would have changed that equation.

        • Changed the equation to more communism. Another millionaire Bolshevik that wants more of your taxes and free college degrees for all the feelings and hug sectors of society. Wow such a visionary.

        • Paul, you just told us what you really are. A Socialist. You “might have voted” for Bernie? Bernie is a Communist. Do you know where he spent his honeymoon?
          For your edification there is no such thing as an “independent”. You have just proved that.

        • Paul, There is no such thing as an “independent”, especially one who says he would have voted from Bernie. Kinda paints you as what you really are.
          You do know that Bernie spent his honeymoon in the USSR?

    • Your time-table is speculative bullshit. China will not invade Taiwan until it’s clear that Taiwan intends to officially secede from China. Read up on the history and get a clue.

      • Richard Steven Hack, Where did you get this little ditty from?
        Are you by any chance a member of the CCP?

        • gnome, Not likely. You Lefties think you are smarter than we Conservative but don’t have the common sense of the basic amoeba. Ben Franklin once said,” “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”

  9. Here I am again. TTAG not only held up my first comment, but dropped it altogether. Hey, Dan, heard of the first amendment? I didn’t cry fire in a theater.

    • Yelling fire in a theater isn’t illegal. Causing a stampede of people that gets people hurt might be. It’s a silly line and one should stop using the left’s terms whenever possible.

      • “…and one should stop using the left’s terms whenever possible.”

        No, use them, and rub their noses in it.

        It demonstrates their absurdity… 😉

  10. That “assymetrical warfare” mentioned in the article is old hat, and several generations old. The “new” warfare is called 4th generation warfare, and it ain’t pretty. We’re talking about reviving ancient mentalities that supported hundred year wars, and blending in some of the Middle Eastern views of warfare. That is, it’s legitimate to murder an adversary’s friends and relatives, if you believe the pressure might change his conduct. And, if you were wrong, no big deal, murdering the enemy’s children mean fewer enemies in the next couple decades.

    4th gen warfare promises to plunge the world into barbarism. But, we can’t ignore it if that’s what our enemies are doing.

    You might say that we are already practicing it. Our drones seem to kill more school children than terrorists.

    • Paul “Those who are not willing to fight and die for freedom’s sake, will lose their freedom and deserve to.” (Ben Franklin).

  11. Newsflash: the Communists who rule China do not, I repeat, DO NOT share our Western thinking and values (especially Judeo-Christian thinking and values).

    In light of that GIANT detail, we must consider what China is likely to do–and perhaps most importantly what China is NOT willing to do–based on the mindset of the Communists who rule China.

    I am not an expert on the thinking and values of the Chinese Communist Party. I can only parrot a few things that I have heard and proffer my intuition based on my extremely limited knowledge of Chinese history and culture. That would lead to a complicated discussion which goes beyond the scope of this forum.

    • the oriental mindset can’t handle defeat…sowing doubt about success may be enough to keep them from trying…

  12. What would be China’s motivation for taking Taiwan? I can only think of three answers:

    1) National pride/honor
    Reclaiming a former territory could be significant motivation.

    2) Acquiring assets/leverage
    Seizing manufacturing plants/capacity (such as semiconductor “chip” manufacturing) could be a pretty huge gain for China. It could even help China to totally dominate worldwide electronics output. And how about natural resources? Are there significant oil reserves under the ocean between China and Taiwan?

    3) Acquiring control of a large area of ocean
    Is there a strategic benefit to controlling the Pacific Ocean around Taiwan and the mainland?

    The answer to China’s motivation for “reunification” with Taiwan will tell us how far China is willing to go in terms of their own losses as well as tactics. And that will tell us whether there is any value in arming a large chunk of the Taiwanese population.

    • Yes there are significant oil reserves under the south china sea and also the reefs are plentiful in a major food source.
      Bumblebee Tuna is the only tuna cannery in the U.S. and it acquires that tuna from asian markets.

    • National pride at the cost of international prestige. China’s allies can be counted as a few Pacific islands, one or two places in Africa, Myanmar, and the hermit kingdom of North Korea. There has been global pushback on the Chinese Belt And Road Initiative when countries realized they were being debt trapped.

      Chip fabrication plants. By the time the invasion is complete the plants will be empty shells or flattened ruins. The plants can be rebuilt elsewhere. The value is the intellectual property which can be relocated to cloud based servers. Any paper records can be shredded and burnt. Any local server data can be wiped to at least DoD level which makes recovery impossible. Just to make sure, remove the drives and hit them with a large hammer to destroy the platters.

      Unfortunately taking Taiwan will allow China to forward project several hundred more miles/kilometers into the western Pacific turning everything between the mainland and the first island chain into a Chinese lake.

  14. In Iraq, every single household was required to have an AK-47 by Saddam Hussein.
    We all saw just how effective small arms were against soldiers and a modern military machine. When we invaded, they repelled our actual soldiers with ease.
    Our tanks, air power, artillery … all were useless against the small arms that are made and sold by the companies that pay for this website because today’s Americans won’t pay for excellent publications of any kind anymore.

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  16. hopefully they will use every single form of asymetrical warfare and sabotage against them, if they do occupy.. down to even poisoning the food and drink of their soilders and sailors..the problem is that most occupied people quit fighting.. never quit fighting dirty..winning is the ONLY thing…keep stacking them up and make them leave with very heavy loses and deep trama..

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  19. China can take any country it wants without firing a shot.
    Wuhann Flu ain’t shit compared to what they’ve got in their jar of happiness.

  20. “I’ve seen many online discussions where Americans ask whether Taiwan has a foreign legion they could join.”

    Are you serious? If the Pentagon says the US military can’t defeat China over Taiwan (as I established in my comment to the last article), what makes you think a handful of Americans with ARs are going to?

    The only thing arming the Taiwan population with commercial or military rifles will do in the event of an actual invasion is result in a significant portion of the population being killed – far more than in a conflict where that is not done. And as this article states, this is not something that can be done overnight.

    More importantly, in what universe do you think the US government is going to *recommend arming civilians of another country* while simultaneously expending effort to *disarm its own citizens*? Are you seriously this delusional?

  21. I am usually sceptical of one evil man theories, but in pinpping’s case I am beginning to doubt my scepticism. He seems to have an ambition to be the father of a greater China and to think he can get his way by bullying his neighbours. So far, all he is doing internationally, is uniting unlikely allies Japan, Korea, Taiwan, The Phillipines, Vietnam, Australia, Singapore and Indonesia.

    I am hoping that his new adventures in afgoathumperstan will keep China tied up for the next twenty years, just like the USSR and Western Alliance were tied up there, and when they do finally get out his power will be ended with enough ignonimity to ensure that China respects the world order as it then stands for the foreseeable future.

  22. Discussion is missing the fact that, like anti-Mullah rebels in Iran, Taiwan likely has assets positioned all around the PLA and CCP.

    Invade China, and. I and his little friends (and family, and those of military and party leaders) feel pain…. personally.

    That is their real leverage; the Taiwanese are not dumb. Certainly not as dumb as the CIA was/is.

      • Luigi Excuse me but what “families” would the Taiwanese “target? One has to wonder about your political stances?

    • Luigi, ARE YOU FRICKIN’ KIDDING? Just how would Taiwan be better off with the CHINCOMS?
      Apparently you don’t respect other people’s right to FREEDOM?

      • Well, from part 1 it sounds like Taiwan already lacked freedom for most of its history. Chicom rule would be awful but likely the lesser of two evils compared to their current status as a fruity little liberal democracy

        • “Chicom rule would be awful but likely the lesser of two evils.”

          Nope. Spent some time in Taiwan, back in the day. The Chicoms, based on years of liberal reporting, are just a shade short of the Norks. Back in the day, there was no state religion (communism), and the presence of other religions was not suppressed.

          However, there is now, in Taiwan, a notable political faction that supports re-unification with the mainland. Wonder where that came from?

        • Another wannabe who is not willing to accept that ties have changed for Taiwan. Taiwan is a lot more democratic than many states here in the US. Taiwan started to evolve into democracy after Chaing died.
          What are you afraid of? That you might have to go to war to defend freedom?

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