CMP Ammunition Update
“The CMP has been notified by ammunition manufacturers and distributors to expect price increases and significant delivery delays for all calibers of ammunition, especially for .22 rimfire. The price increases and delays apply to orders we have already placed with the manufacturers. Prior to 2013 CMP received deliveries of truckloads of ammo within a few weeks of placing orders. We are now being advised, as in the case of Aguila .22, that it may take several years to receive all of the 35,000,000 rounds of Aguila ammo we have on order. . .
“As a result of this situation, CMP has placed orders with several different manufacturers for large amounts of ammunition in various calibers. We expect to receive only a few pallets at a time because manufacturers and distributors are rationing the ammo to their customers. As we receive ammo, we will contact customers with oldest orders already in place with the option to purchase whatever we receive at the new prices, cancel the order, or remain on the list for the manufacturer they originally requested. All price increases to CMP will be passed on to the customer. CMP will not be profiting from the increase in prices.
“We will continue to accept orders for ammunition, with the understanding that the wait time for customers between placing an order and receiving the ammunition may be anywhere from a few weeks to a few years. Most other retailers are in the same situation as the CMP. We suggest that customers leave their CMP orders in place and not cancel until they are able to purchase ammo elsewhere. CMP customers will be contacted as to pricing and manufacturer before any orders are filled. We do not expect to have any additional information until after the annual SHOT Show in mid-January, when we will meet with all of the ammo manufacturers.”
I hate myself for writing this, but some still care. George Zimmerman got his guns back yesterday, according to a story in The Daily Mail. He visited the Sanford Police Department with his on-again, off-again girlfriend Samantha Scheibe, with whom he’s apparently on-again. When he was released from jail on $9,000 bail about a month ago, two of the conditions were that he couldn’t possess firearms nor have contact with Ms. Scheibe, so I’m not sure how yesterday’s proceedings jibed with that, but I don’t much care, either. If you do, click the links. Sigh.
A clerk at the Jump Start convenience store in Wichita, Kansas thought that the gun the robber had pointed at her looked like a toy, so she grabbed it and clubbed him over the head with it. They scuffled, but she got the upper hand, dragged him outside and told him to leave, then called police. He might have gotten away, but after officers arrived, a woman called 911 to report that her boyfriend had been assaulted at the Jump Start. Police went to her address and arrested the boyfriend. Something tells me their relationship might be on the rocks.
Your Lockdown of the Dayâ„¢ comes out of Elmwood Park, WI, and isn’t really a lockdown. A note was found in a girl’s bathroom at Elmwood Park High School after school on the 17th that said the “school is going to be blown up on the 19th at 7 a.m.” Bomb-sniffing dogs were brought in on the 18th, and no one could leave or enter the school while they made their sweep, which found nothing. The following day, the 19th, final exams were delayed by about an hour while every single one of the arriving 900 students was patted down and backpacks, purses and other bags were searched. Nothing was found, and the process, which Police Chief Rodger Loni described as being similar to the process before getting on an airplane, “went very, very smoothly,” according to the chief.
Dan Bilzerian visits Richard Ryan out at the desert range for a little .50 BMG slow-mo Christmas action. I’m used to seeing the shock wave come off of C4 and det cord in RR’s videos, but seeing a shockwave come out of the muzzle brake on the M82A1 was new to me. No wonder it’s so much “fun” to stand next to them.
For those of you who like guns with wood on them, Hickok45 goes hunting for a Christmas tree with a Winchester 1886 in .45-70.
.
I want to see the surveillance video from that pistol whipping.
George needs to buy a stroke mag and some lotion and call it a day.
I’m not proud of how hard I snorted at this one.
Dirk, I generally don’t agree with your observations, but you do produce some real gems.
That was great video. The slo-mo of the .50 projo starting to pitch and yaw after going through even something as thin as an ornament. Wow.
Well sounds like the ammo companies are creating a false shortage of ammunition and then charging more for the ammo. Ain’t free commerce great. 🙂 Thing is all it will take is 1 company to decide to sell all at a reasonable price and deliver fast for the rest to crumble.
Frank, don’t be a Dick
I’m not sure on what you’re basing anything you just said. Please explain your reasoning.
Economic fallacies abound and endure. It’s funny, people will claim the same of power companies, oil companies, or pretty much any big entity run by nameless, faceless, easy-to-demonize people. Never mind for a moment all the reality of supply and demand. Just take these economics conspiracy claims at face value. Their proponents would have us believe that super greedy, for-profit enterprises would build all of this infrastructure, whether it’s pipelines, storage tanks, ammo production lines, whatever, to achieve a certain level of production capacity. Then, in a grand conspiracy or just the industry’s gentleman’s agreement, they turn around and restrict supply by only utilizing a reduced percentage of that installed capacity and charge exorbitant prices. Sounds plausible, right?
Well, riddle me this, Batman: why would individual companies or the industry as a whole incur the expense of installing all that productive capacity, only to turn around and restrict supply to a lower level of output and reap higher profits? Why not just build capacity to that lower level of production in the first place and charge the allegedly artificial prices? Why bother over-building and scaling back when they could just build to that lower level and enjoy the artificial prices from the start? In over 20 years of arguing politics/economics/current affairs, nobody has ever come back with a serious answer for that, perhaps because there is no answer that is also consistent with their fabricated conspiracy theory.
While you think about that, think about this: it’s just like when people claim that jury awards, government fines, or any other sudden surge in a company’s costs, won’t cost the company a dime because they can just raise prices and “pass the expense along to the customer.” Well. If companies could just raise prices willy nilly and experience no adverse effects whatsoever, only increased profits, then why wait for some sudden increase in costs like a jury award, government fine, etc. before raising prices? Why not just raise prices right this instant and keep all the money for themselves? Again, in 20+ years, never a serious answer to that question, because there isn’t one.
So there’s been high demand for most of a year and with-in the last couple of months either demand has gone down a lot or production has gone up a lot. The shelves at all my nearby ammo retailers are full. I see volume in everything but 9mm and .22 LR. I’ve seen some kind of 9mm nearly each time I’ve looked -for around 2-3 cents a round more than mid-2012…still stand in line for .22 LR. The last 3 weeks I’ve seen 1200 round of 9mm fmj and 700+ round 5.56 sitting on the shelf…its from somebody I’m not familiar with and its a bit overpriced. WWB 9mm has stayed the same $0.26-7 a round for the last 6 months.
Six months ago, I recall the price gouging (I mean the market doing is job) happened at the reseller level and only some of them needed to do it. Walmart either had it at regular price or not.
With the shelves flush with lead and all but .22LR can be had fairly easily, there’s a looming price increase? Now? From the manufacturers? Now and not 6 months ago?
I’m not saying there is a conspiracy and I’m not saying price won’t go up. I would like to know why though. Regulation? Lead smelting plant get shutdown somewhere? Car batteries last longer and not recycled? Ammo components scare? Brass hard to come by? Can’t pay for ammo plant expansion solely on a 1 year surge in demand? Healthcare plans get too high? Is this real? Is this an attempt to stimulate purchasing of some overproduction that has occurred over the last quarter?
This is quick and dirty, M31, but it comes down to supply and demand; more specifically, short run supply and demand, and long run supply and demand. Short run surges can be attributed to the election and recent legislative actions. People want to get in before they get locked out. There’s also speculation, which serves a useful purpose, but whose abettors can sometimes overplay their hand.
More importantly, the industry is also undergoing huge shifts in long term demand which are unusually large and more closely resemble short term surges. Making major, bet-the-company (or at least bet-your-career) decisions whether to expand productive capacity takes some time. It then takes even longer to follow through with and actually build in more production lines.
And we see all of this play out when we look at the underlying numbers. Annual number of NICS checks has grown about 8.4% per year for a decade. Not every NICS means a firearm sold and not every firearm sold even generates a NICS. Some NICS are for concealed carry licenses, too, whose applications are also skyrocketing nationwide. (I didn’t look state by state for their numbers, so that’s a general statement based on regular observation and reading.) So NICS is a rough proxy, and probably a very conservative one, for the number of buyers and transactions out there; but still it’s an awful lot. Looking directly at the number of firearms produced (excluding NFA items), that’s running annual growth rates of about 8.3%. Taken together, we’re seeing a lot of people buying a lot of guns, whether new or used, and they all need ammo. The greatest growth in firearms manufacturing in recent years has come in 9mm and .380 pistols, with respectable numbers in .22LR, as well. This suggests to me lots of new, self-defense shooters who then need basic proficiency, ongoing practice, and a few boxes on the shelf at home.
On the ammo industry side, it simply takes time to accommodate that kind of demand, both short run and long run. The industry is responding, though, This capital intensive industry has been on a hiring binge, with employment in the small arms ammunition industry growing about 7.9% per year each in 2012 and 2013. For a heavily machinery-based industry, growth in employment like that is massive. Compare that to the overall economy’s private non-farm payroll growth rates for those years of about 1.8%. There’ve also been announcements, some posted on TTAG, of manufacturers expanding production lines, running around the clock, and so forth. So overall, the industry’s struggling with unprecedented growth and a time-consuming measures to catch up; which presents as price increases and spotty availability for the foreseeable future.
What’s with the increase in lock downs? When I was in high school, we had multiple bomb threats. I remember one where a student found a note written on her desk that the school would be blown up, principle came in and inspected it, had the janitor wipe it off and the day went on as normal. No lock down, no evacuation. Instead, according to what I overheard from other teachers talking, the principle had the bomb squad come in and had the dogs sniff around during the next class. Took 1 hour, gave the all clear and everyone went home.
I think it’s just the way things are done now. It’s a poor (insufficient) response to a situation, but it makes folks feel better. Kind of like duck and cover 50 years ago.
I read today that Zimmerman, lacking employment in any traditional sense, has apparently become an artist of sorts lately. A painting of his reportedly just sold today to the highest of 96 bids on eBay for over $100,000. The article I read described the work as depicting a U.S. flag in shades of blue with the words “God, One Nation, with Liberty and Justice for All.”
Now, I don’t know how much he may still owe in legal fees or whatever else; but $100K is $100K. So I’m not surprised in the least that his tabloid-story-payment-seeking hussy of a girlfriend is sniffing around Zimmerman’s place again.
“$100K is $100K.”
Color me cynical, but “Not until the check clears.”
“I hate myself for writing this, but some still care.”
Really? Who still cares about this idiot? I want names.
The people that can’t let go of their uncial “MURDERER” judgement.
No surprise when .22lr ammo is in short supply. It’s probably most popular caliber out there. Easy & fun to shoot. whether pistol or revolver. I watch prices on gunbroker.com when I see a good deal I buy it, when I see unreasonable prices, I pass. I’m in a Woman’s Shooting Leauge so put a lot of rounds down range each month. Have a number of other calibers to shoot .380 9mm 38 special but always come back to my Ruger .22SR pistol as my favorite to shoot. Accurate, enjoyable, cheaper than any thing else. At any given time I have thousands of rounds of various brands of .22lr ammo on hand.
I don’t get lock downs for bomb threats. Somebody calls with no names to implicate, it’s during finals (just like Harvard), etc. It doesn’t pass the smell test.
Seriously, if I was the principal, I’d get on the PA and say some dumbass who didn’t study called in a bomb threat, and the second the police nail his ass we’re going to post his picture, his final exam results, and his GPA on the main hallway board so everybody can laugh at his ass.
Then I’d cane him.
And last year Glock was saying it had a three year back order. But, Glocks are plenty today.
“35,000,000 rounds of Aguila ammo we have on order.”
Now that’s something I’ll never ever say in my life. Awesome.
I did however get 1500 rounds of 9mm from Aguila from AIM Surplus on Friday.
That is definitely a number that made me do a look-back when I first read it.
The CMP has increased the price of surplus .30/06 by 20% last week. That’s a bitch since I was just about to order another couple cans.
Hi Matt, I have read several reports about Russian Troops in Mountains of Tenn. and that major news sources know this and will not report out FEAR of NSA etc.. What if anything have you found or know .. I know we get nut case stuff,,, But this seems more true this time…
More true than not true at all?
TLMO.In my time in the service we trained and trained with South Korean, South Vietnamese, Iranian, Canadien, West German, Mexican and probably a few that I’ve forgotten. We trained them and with them in the states and their countries.
If small units of foreign troops are here it’s likely just for joint training, not a new world order conspiracy.
you might want to go (http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2013/12/1…dmwithin/) this is not about training with other nations troops , I did lots this… This about undercover agents etc.. and this not the only report … so if you look at it this way the Germans had troops in Holland before start up of war … this has been done in the past.. I feel Homeland does not trust American troops and wants non-American troops who would work in a U.N. status to follow orders .. I feel we a very close to a Stock/money CRASH….
Do the math. How many of these Russian troops are alleged to be here? A few hundred? Ten thousand? Now how many would it take to seize and control a nation of 300 million people, spread out over three million square miles of land area, armed with a hundred million guns?
Unless there’s a million or two Russians hiding in them thar hills, I don’t think you have a lot to worry about. Ten thousand foreign troops couldn’t even pacify and control Baltimore, much less the rest of the country.
Our local club has had a .22LR order in w/ CMP since, oh, March.
Still haven’t gotten it yet.
“Something tells me their relationship might be on the rocks.”
Somebody’s not going to be able to pee in the gene pool any more…
I have to say, my favorite posts on TTAG have become the “weekend edition” posts. Well done, Matt. Very. Well. Done.
Thanks. I appreciate that.
I’ll second that!
“The following day, the 19th, final exams were delayed by about an hour while every single one of the arriving 900 students was patted down and backpacks, purses and other bags were searched.”
I’m no criminal mastermind, but I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be carried in the day of, after everyone is all perked up about it…
Still not a ciminal mastermind; put some modern smokeless powder in a ziplock bag. Then double vacuum seal it. Then see if a dog can smell it. This is how the druggies smuggle small quantities right in their pockets and dogs don’t smell it… A pair of cargo shorts can move a kilo or two of Heroin by plane ticket and nobody bats an eye… Except maybe the fashion police…
So stupid… Not only is it a massive over-reaction, it doesn’t accomplish anything. Were a bomb placed there, it would be done in advance, and the stupid dogs would never notice it…
I think you’d be surprised what the dogs would find. Your double-bagged powder trick would be very unlikely to pass muster if the dog got within 2-3 feet, which they would during a search.
Comments are closed.