The National Shooting Sports Foundation has toted up the adjusted background check numbers for December and we now have a full picture of 2021. That gives us a view of where the year stands in terms of Americans’ demand for firearms and where the demand for guns is probably heading. The numbers tell a couple of stories.
Just over 18.5 million guns were sold last year, making 2021 the second biggest gun-buying year ever, behind pandemic- and riot-riddled 2020. However, looking at how December and the fourth quarter compared to the same periods in previous years, it appears that the demand for firearms is finally reverting to the mean.
The initial buying binge was, of course, historic. Millions of people — the NSSF estimates about 11 million — made the choice to buy a gun for the first time. And plenty of existing gun owners decided that adding another firearm or two to the safe was a good idea.
But most of that initial flush of demand — high enough to carry well over into 2021 — now seems to have been met. You can see that with the availability of most firearm models (and, slowly, some ammunition stock) in retailers’ cases.
That demand, of course, was fueled by the uncertainty of the COVID outbreak, the Biden inauguration, and the nomination of a professional gun control zealot to head the ATF. But the political winds have shifted.
While crime in most urban areas is still high due to a variety of factors, Biden’s agenda, including his gun control push, is foundering. And thanks to bipartisan opposition to a deeply flawed and intentionally divisive candidate in the Senate, the Chipman nomination was roundly defeated.
Those developments, plus growing expectations of a shift in control of both houses of Congress in 2022, seem to have contributed to a gradual cooling of the overheated demand for guns.
The NSSF’s Mark Oliva told us that . . .
The fact that over 18.5 million Americans chose lawfully purchase a firearm in 2021 is indicative the value Americans hold of the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. The year 2021 was the second-highest year for background checks for gun sales, behind on the 2020’s record of over 21 million background checks for a gun sale. This has all occurred as Americans have taken stock of their personal safety concerns and their fundamental, God-given rights.
This has also happened as the firearm industry faced significant challenges and new opportunities. NSSF led the opposition to defeat President Joe Biden’s nomination of a gun control lobbyist, David Chipman, to regulate the firearm industry, the single most important fight of the year to preserve the firearm industry and Second Amendment rights.
At the same time, manufacturers announced significant investments in the expansion and relocation, signaling the anticipation for continued growth. The 2021 totals of 18.5 million background checks for a firearm sale prove the work to preserve and grow this vital industry is essential and the men and women of this industry are able more than capable of meeting the growing demand for lawful firearm ownership.
Here’s the NSSF’s press release announcing the final 2021 numbers . . .
The December 2021 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,792,797 is a decrease of 6.0 percent compared to the December 2020 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,906,916. For comparison, the unadjusted December 2021 FBI NICS figure 3,080,295 reflects a 21.1 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 3,904,879 in December 2020. Total NSSF-adjusted NICS figures for 2021 were 18,515,188, the second highest year on record.
The fourth quarter 2021 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 4,763,439 reflects a decrease of 15.3 percent over the 5,625,610 figure for fourth quarter 2020.
The 2021 annual adjusted NICS total is exceeded only by the previous record of 21,083,643 set in 2020.
Please note: Twenty-five states currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.
The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.
Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms.
It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.
