Over the last year, ammunition prices have shot through the roof. The price of 9mm and other small caliber handgun rounds have increased by as much as 62 percent. There are plenty of theories explaining this “sudden” price escalation, from economics to politics to political economics. The Mystery of The Really Expensive Ammo is worth solving; a gun without ammo is nothing more than a very expensive blunt instrument for hand-held assault. So here’s a rundown of the most popular—if not logical or accurate—explanations for the high price of ammunition . . .

The military’s to blame

You don’t have to see the spent casings laying at the feet of U.S. soldiers in Marjah to know that the U.S. military is one of the world’s largest ammunition consumers. According to The Washington Post, American armed forces will use 1.5 billion rounds of small ammunition this year, triple the amount produced in 2001. That’s a lot of demand.

Yes, but— the U.S. military has an entirely predictable bullet burn rate, its own massive manufacturing facility and plenty of your hard-earned tax money. The ammo-challenged armed forces recently cut deals with the Brits, Israelis and good old Winchester to augment their ammunition supplies (for a premium, of course). None of these suppliers had to divert civilian ammo production or sales. So we can file the idea that overseas actions are sucking-up ammo under “another myth exploded.”

The Chinese Government’s to blame

The People’s Republic [sic] of China fields the world’s largest army, with over 2.25 million regular troops, 800k reservists and four million paramilitary soldiers. Even if you figure a thousand bullets per soldier, that’s over seven billion bullets. To say the Chinese are voracious ammo consumers would be like saying a great white shark has a bit of an overbite. Equipping the Red Army with bullets requires enormous amounts of copper, brass and lead. But again, it’s a predictable—and primary—consumption pattern.

That said, raw materials are an issue. Brass is fine; the market for the metal has more or less collapsed. Copper prices, on the other hand, have gone ballistic. Never mind the military; China is stocking up on billions of tons to build the country’s infrastructure and manufacture consumer goods (refrigerators, cars, cell phones, etc.). As the five-year chart above shows, Chinese demand has caused a huge copper price spike this year.

Lead? Same deal, only more so. In the last year, lead prices have climbed from .40 a pound to $1.20 (before falling back slightly). All of which means that China has rendered the raw materials needed to make American bullets more expensive.

Bush is to blame

In 2007, OSHA (the fine folks at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration) made a well-publicized attempt to change the rules on the sale and transportation of ammunition. The regulation (which would NOT have required ratification by elected officials) would have prevented retailers like Walmart from selling both firearms and ammunition. The NRA and other pro-gun groups mobilized to head the feds off at the pass.

After being inundated with letters, emails, and petitions, OSHA decided to delay the changes. But not before the prospect triggered a huge spike in demand, as gun owners stocked up on ammo.

Obama’s to blame I

Organizations like the NRA pushed hard back in 2008, positing that the election of Obama would result in the termination of our Second Amendment rights and a gun grab that would make post-Katrina New Orleans look like child’s play. To date, that hasn’t happened. What did happen: a large segment of the public began buying up both ammo and guns in record numbers. Firearms and ammunition sales shortages shot up, even before the Senator ascended to the Chief Executive’s slot.

In 2009, the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) reported 14,033,824 background checks. While that represents “only” about a 10 percent increase in gun purchases from 2008 (12,709,023 checks), figure 1000 rounds of additional ammo per additional gun. I make that 1,324,801,000 additional bullets. At least. No wonder ammunition makers are adding shifts to increase production.

Meanwhile, increased demand and lagging production means higher prices. If you wanna pin all that on Obama Derangement Syndrome, go ahead. In truth, the 44th President of the United States has done little to curtail gun ownership. If he does make moves in that direction, look for another sales surge and price spike.

Obama’s to blame II

Early in its first year, the Obama administration decided they would stop selling spent brass casings to ammunition re-manufacturers. They decided to shred them and send the raw materials to . . . China. This policy immediately changed the availability of practice ammo for 9mm handguns and AR-15 carbines. It also had a trickle-down effect on the laws of supply-and-demand for every other kind of ammo. Since garnering media attention, the bullet-brass-to-China situation has since been “resolved.” But the psychological damage was done.

The manufacturers are to blame

Pity the poor ammo manufacturers. They got caught flat-footed, what with the increased demand from the military, decreased raw materials supplies courtesy of China, and the artificial spikes to demand, driven by the anticipation of anti-gun policies from the Obama administration. They’ve largely caught up now, but there are still shortages in specific markets and calibers.

Capitalism is to blame

The law of supply and demand is a cruel mistresses. When the supply of a product or service drops below demand, manufacturers usually raise prices to soften demand, bank profits and enable supplies to catch up. When supplies are in abundance, prices drop to clear out inventory. The Eggo frozen waffle shortage (I kid you not) shows how you can’t buck the system.

Where this one really kicked in: ammunition manufacturers quickly realized that, with raw materials supplies at all-time lows, it was far more lucrative to manufacture self-defense rounds (i.e. jacketed hollow-points) than it was to make practice rounds (full-metal jacketed “roundballs” or lead wad-cutters).

Even more critical to those who reload their own practice rounds, it was far more lucrative to make the ammo than to sell the supplies (primers, gunpowder and bullets), making it difficult to impossible to reload ammo. As there’s virtually no evidence of price gouging (at least any that stands up to scrutiny) it’s hard to pin this one on ruthless capitalists. Or any other kind, for that matter.

Gun owners and first-time buyers are to blame

Ask firearm manufacturers, and they’ll tell you that the “Election dividend” for the ’08 Presidential race was a dramatic uptick in the number of people buying guns – both existing gun owners buying more weapons, and first-time buyers wanting to get guns before they were banned. (No ban actually happened, but like, Wall Street, gun owners buy on the rumor, and sell on the news). Obviously, if you own a Colt .45 and grab an AR-15 for your home defense arsenal, you have to add multiple boxes of ammo for practice and self-defense.


The media is to blame

There’s a fine line between covering the news and making the news. When it comes to any story concerning firearms, the news media consistantly blurs that line like a myopic coke addict. With every breathless story from the left covering Obama’s, Pelosi’s, and Reid’s plans to clamp down on gun shows, gun ownership and gun manufacturing, millions of Americans decided to exercise their Second Amendment rights. With every story covering the NRA’s efforts to add members to fight the ObamaNation’s plans to curtail and legislate gun ownership, those on the gun-control side of things (i.e. gun owners) became even more agitated.

Truth be told, all of these factors created a “perfect” storm of demand for ammunition, that reduced the supply, that increased the price, that led to greater production, that’s satisfying demand, which will eventually reduce the price. Or, perhaps, not. Does it really matter?

if they thought about it—and I’m not saying they will—gun owners would gladly pay a high price for availability. As they are. And those who oppose gun ownership would happily see the price rise to the point where hardly anyone could afford it. Which it won’t. And so . . . God bless America.

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32 COMMENTS

  1. Regardless of the reason(s), the current ammo situation has had a very real effect on the average gun owner vis-a-vis the probability of practicing and remaining proficient.

    In 2002, I regularly bought 165-grain .40 S&W FMJ re-loaded practice ammo for $6.95 per 50-round box from a reputable website. For about a dollar more or less per box, I could have selected re-loaded hard-cast lead, total copper jacket, or even jacketed hollow point rounds, available in 155-, 165-, and 185-grain bullet weights.

    Around 2003, Walmart started selling brand-new Winchester “white box” Target/Range ammo (.40 S&W 165-grain FMJ) for $15 per box of 100, so naturally, I left the re-loads behind.

    Of course, the Winchester ammo at Walmart has doubled in price over the past few years, so I went back to that aforementioned re-load website the other day just to see how bad things had gotten in the re-load world.

    Very bad, as it turns out. They now offer only one re-loaded ammo option for .40 S&W: 185-grain total copper jackets at $13.85 per box of 50. This represents zero savings over my best local retail option once you factor in shipping and the higher incidence of failures-to-feed I always experienced with 2-3% of this company’s (or anyone else’s) reloads.

    The net result: I now go to the range twice per year versus the four to six times per year I did in the past. My enjoyment of shooting hasn’t changed, but neither has my financial situation with regard to my disposable income.

    While sending a hundred rounds down range once every six months might be all that’s necessary for me to remain minimally proficient and capable of defending myself and my family, I would definitely feel much more confident were I able to afford twice as much practice.

  2. I gather also that those who remain well-to-do are arming themselves in fear of those who no longer have jobs.

  3. Just as I was about to get into reloading, the primer/lead/copper/whatever I needed shortage hit. Things seemed to have settled down a little, but it's still waaaaaay too expensive to do the 50 rounds a week plus one night a week IDPA practice I was doing. So I'm now looking at acquiring a .22 semi-auto pistol. .22 ammo is still dirt cheap, (at least compared to .45s) and will give me the reps I need for accuracy. I think I'll still shoot a magazine of .45s, just to stay in shape with the additional recoil/heft of my 1911, but the .22 should help in the financial department.

    • Wally World no longer offers inexpensive .22 rounds. A box of 550 that used to retail for about $9 became scarce despite purchase limitations and then, when manufacturers had begun to catch up with demand, the price is hovering around $20 for that same box. The new strategy at Wally World is to match local competition prices but the local Wally World is always “out” when other, more distant sporting goods stores have sales.

      • Around here they just don’t order any. Why waste time selling something that must sell cheap b/c if you don’t then the shoppers will say that you are price gouging and not come to the store to buy other things? At my store, they simply haven’t stocked anything for like a month, maybe more. They lie and say that there is a shortage and they can’t get any. Bull****! I used to work in retail and I KNOW how this works. The manager simply didn’t put in the orders. The warehouse didn’t know we were out as the computer still showed we had some in stock which ‘didn’t sell’ for some odd reason.

  4. The one thing people don’t seem to bring up is the reason for the second admendment, was written so are leaders would have a healthy fear of the people. I know so many people think it is unthinkable for a american to raise arms against thier government. This is you’re responsiblity that the creaters of our goverment trusted with the people. The goverment is making it to expensive for the average American to be capable with a firearm so the can keep taking are rights from us leaving the common man as nothing but a slave to the rich and powerfull. They wrote that law to give us the power to take are county back.

    • You clearly have no idea how capitalism works. Its like this: people sell ammo at $9 and it flys off the shelf so they see an opportunity to get rich so they increase the price to $30 and peple STILL buy it and it runs out. What do you think they are going to do? Limit supply to 3 boxes, claim a shortage and charge a whole heap. You will STILL buy it. You may complain to the internet like this page, but you will ultimately bite the bullet and pay. As they say: There is a sucker born every minute. Guess who that sucker is?

      • Obviously, the sucker is you. You’ve got your head so far up your butt in response to what was said in that post, you’re licking the back of your own eyeballs.

  5. This is the most complete explanation that I have seen since reading “Supply Chain Management 101: on the ammunition shortage.” written by Grant Cunningham in 2009 (http://grantcunningham.com/index.html) . We’ve had similar situations since in response to bird flu (shortage of N-95 masks) and other potential disasters. We’re starting to see it in commodities as well.

    • I have first hand knowledge of these created shortages. Back in the 80’s, I did a little remodeling job at my house in Fl. I couldn’t finish it because of an insulation shortage. I then went to do a job in Irving, Tx. Out there I met a man who worked for Owens-Corning Fiberglass. He told me they had warehouses full of insulation, that they couldn’t sell. The same thing with the sheet rock shortage. A friend of mine had a trucking company that hauled produce from Fl. to Canada. He would then load his trucks up with sheetrock and bring it back. The sheet rock he brought back, was made in Tampa and Jacksonville Fl.

  7. My father was a national guard of China in the 1970s. He told me that he shot probably like 100 rounds of ammo in his LIFE. That includes 3 years of national guard service plus a few years para-military service (less than 10 rounds per year).

    I am going to a gun range (in WI) this weekend and shoot probably 100 rounds.

    You see, China is not to blame. Any gun owner in US shoots more than a Chinese soldier.

  8. well i thank the reason all of this is happening is because the pries of ammo of cheep. then everyone decided to but it. then the it started get worse and worse. then everything got back orated and now theirs a shortage !!

    • There is no real shortage. The sellers just say that to jack up the price from $9 a box of 9mm to $40. People beleive everything they see on tv. If they say there is a shortage, people beleive it. After all, like the internet, people on tv can’t say anything thats not thruth can they? Bonjour, my friend. HA HA HA HA!! Look, if you will pay $40-60 for a box, do you really think that gunshops will cut you a break when they are getting rich? Who doesn’t like to be paid more? Who does’t like to be rich?

  9. Actually you idiot, Barack Obama is to blame for rising gun and ammunition prices. The reason it is so high is because he is trying to stop us from owning guns. Im actually doing a project on this right now. But this will not pass, because less than half of the Senate disagrees with this act, so it is a failure anyway. Im only in the 10th grade and know more than you, and yes I’m white.

    • That could be but the main reason is the rise in copper prices That why air conditioner theft is on the rise too

  10. The fear of the public that ammo will become scarce, anti-gun nuts, manufacturers and suppliers, cost of materials, military are all factors that has driven up the price.

  11. Who wrote this article? Not a gun owner. NO I will NOT gladly pay high prices for ammo. I simply won’t shoot if that’s what it means. I would say majority of gun owners are pissed about the high prices and many of us including myself are boycotting the gouges. Yah I said gouges! Have you seen cheaper than dirt??? Tell me how that’s not price gouging. Cheaper than no one else is their new motto and they lost millions of customers. It’s simple. Quit buying the shit . Although its hard to make a difference when our own local shops are selling a good portion of their shipments on gun broker. Raking in the profit. Trading our ammo over seas to countries who literally have no ammo. I’ll tell you the exact reason there is high prices . I Guarantee your support on this one…. GREED

  12. I believe that Wayne Lapierre, president of the NRA caused the problem by spouting off about how Obama and company are lusting to take away our guns. Allot of gun owners bought into his ranting and just like the gasoline “shortage” in the ’70s (no real shortage, just people panicing), it became a self fulfilling prophacy. That may have been Mr. Lapierre’s plan all along as he is a lobbyist for the ammo & gun makers. I really believe he is being well compensated for this work. It doesn’t take much to start a stampede and Mr. Lapierre knows his herd.

    • Wayne Lapierre, president of the NRA caused the problem
      ( AMMO SHORTAGE)
      DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT??
      i think the federal guberment, congress, and state legistlatures are more to blame than Lapierre.

    • Not sure if you lived through the gas shortage of the 70s or are just commenting about it. It was nothing but politics. It was the media and government constantly saying how there was a shortage and I remember them saying we would run out by the year 2000.

      My wife lived in an area where the gas was rationed. People did not have an excess – they just wanted the gas to do their daily jobs. They were not hoarding it in extra gas cans etc., b/c they were only allowed so much.

      Instead it was the time when, since they knew they had the populace over a barrel (no pun), they knew they could line their pockets with a lot more cash b/c people had no way of NOT buying gas. It was the first major major step designed to crush US prosperity and the economy. In order for their globalism to succeed, those in power pushing for global markets and more profit said they had to get the level of Us prosperity down to the level of the other civilized nations. How much more convenient than with gas prices being through the roof?

      BTW – also interesting where I lived the “energy crisis” never made rationing, etc. To us its reality was simple to discern. It was simply a way to gain control and raise prices to get more money and hamstring our prosperity. It was nice living in a day when you did not need to plan “gas money.” The concept was never thought of.

      Do some economic study and you find when gas prices are low, prosperity is high b/c we have more of our own money ion our pockets and spend it. Ever wonder why the liberals (nice word for communist puppet) have ALWAYS fought EVERY pipeline, fracking, etc. (with propaganda about its evils and with money) that would bring us better prices at the pump for something we need?

      Healthcare is the new “energy crisis.” We NEED it, so now they have tripled the costs through bureaucracies and traitors.

  14. We used to shoot. 22 for fun all the time. Now in order to buy Walmart Ammo for 550 for $25 you have to be there at 1am when it comes off the truck and there is still a line.
    We bought some high powered pellet guns but I just paid $900 for a decent powerful rifle. Can!t win. Super quality pellets cost 20 cents a piece.

  15. Where I live the workers at Wak Mart call all their friends when ammo comes in. They run buy all of it within 30 minutes.

  16. Please update and run another more current and informed version. You seem to be a very balanced reporter, and thank you for that, however I believe new information, much more enlightening information, has come to light and could reveal more serious political implications.

  17. The ammo and firearm’s MFG are selling the people of this country out too the rich of this country they buy million’s of firearms’ and ammo from all MFG company’s of ammo and firearms. Top it off the U.S. Government give the rich a big kick back for doing this.And the government is trying for full control of all firearms and ammo buying it with tax payer’s money yes your money if you have a job.All i can say is hope republicans’ get a president in office are it is over for this country he is destroying it fast.Give me a gun too kill people in another country but not own one here HELL with the rich. Fight their own dam war’s.

  18. Hell ammo in a technical sense is even more expensive that the price of gas. Let me explain my conclusion. So the average car will last around 150,000 Miles before needing major work. The average MPG for an american vehicle is 25.4 MPG so 25.4 / 150,000 which equals about 5905 gallon of gas. So 5905 gallons at an average gas price of $3.50 (In Oregon there are highs of $4 and lows of $2.80 depending the time of year.) So 5905 * 3.50 which is $20667.50. Now since in this scenario we are talking about a new gun we will also be talking about new cars. The average price for a new car is around $20,000 So you spend $667.50 more than the original price of the car before you need to do any major maintenance. Now apply that to the average AR15, The average AR15 price is $900 (There are many over and under this price but a fair average) The average AR15 will shoot around 15,000 rounds before needing a new barrel. The lowest price I have found for 1000 rounds of ammo is $275. So 275 * 15 is $4125. So a car before needing a major replacement (Transmission most likely) will only have consumed a little over its own value to were as a gun shooting to the point it will need a major new component (Barrel) will have consumed over 4 times the value of its self in ammunition. Granted these are to completely different markets and price groups but the fact of the matter is our sport cost far more than a car that is fueled by something that is derived from a dwindling resource.

  19. Supply and demand originally worked in a way such that if the demand went up, a company would see the opportunity to make more money by expanding production facilities. This is how the system worked and made the US the once industrial giant She was. Then bureaucracies, liberalization (nice word for communist) of Unions, and (not all) needless regulations brought higher manufacturing expenses to the point companies don’t necessarily have the extra profits to expand on a gamble the demand will remain high. So the easy way out – and to make sure you keep your job./company – is to raise prices instead.
    Welcome to the infiltration of the American system which once was the most profitable the earth had ever seen. BTW – google “McCarthy vindicated: if you think this picture is off.

    But I also have to wonder why in the world this amazingly high demand for less expensive ammo has not made for some private company to spring up as a new ammo manufacturer? I would think there is tremendous potential for someone to become very wealthy by making/selling and undercutting prices of others. This, again, is how America USED to work (look up High Point firearms). Is it governmental regulations stopping this from happening (as in too many start up costs for ammo manufacturing?)

    obama and his anti-American slavemaster-wanna-be policies (like killing our boys in Benghazi and not being held accountable) at least have had a psychological affect on all of this. Gun ownership being up is the only thing good that had come from this admin.

  20. My experience is that in the last 6-8 years I’ve seen my ammo for my hand guns about double in price.
    I looked at a box of 44special, the tag read 16.95,this price hike is rediculous. 22 shells, at .99cents a box.
    Problem is that a lot of people will buy ammo at any price. We need to reduce our spending on overinflated ammo.

  21. You can find decent prices online if you know where to look. SGammo.com is pretty good, it helps to buy in bulk as you will save a few $$ in doing so. Ammunition is no different than gasoline or food. There will always be a demand for it so manufacturers and retailers will charge whatever they need to compete in the open market with other manufacturers and retailers. If that means squeezing consumers pockets then thats what they’ll do, because they know people will pay.

  22. Why men love weapon so much until they sit in the wheel chair rocking their lives away with in-house nurses to change their diapers because that’s what suit them best. Women on the other hand for million of years only arm themselves with lingeries and tears themselves to bed every night and the church said this world loved by God. Who is that kind of God.

  23. Joe is right. Greed is what it is all about. It makes no difference, capitalism or socialism, or communism, there will always be greed. Do you see any of our admirable congress people living in poverty. They will pass laws to take your guns away but they will do nothing to help our veterans of their wars or the homeless living on the streets. MOLON LABE

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