5.56 NATO ammunition ammo
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A gunpowder shortage is here, but it hasn’t affected the supply of popular ammo like 9mm and 5.56 NATO, yet. There is still plenty of popular ammo on dealers’ shelves both in brick-and-mortar retail stores and online. But the gunpowder shortage is here and coming at us like a slow-moving hurricane. We know it is coming, just not sure when it will hit. 

The problem when covering news like a gunpowder shortage is that it is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy causing a run on ammo supplies. I tend to be skeptical and not cynical, but I am suspicious. I have no crystal ball, but I do know people in the ammunition making and selling industries. Is it a grand marketing scheme to sell ammo? Or is it real? From those I’ve spoken to, the shortage is real, but it is not all gloom and doom. Some call it a typical manufacturing cycle. Others call it economics 101 and a simple case of supply and demand. There are other added factors, too, like a war in Europe and conflict in the Middle East, that play into the shortage. 

It’s called the FUD factor: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. We have had a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt in past years. Good reasons to buy ammo. Lots of ammo. The mere hint of a lack of supply causes a run on products. It’s a vicious circle.

What Caused Past Ammo Shortages?

The first ammo shortage coincided with Obama’s second term. When Democrats in office turn up the gun control rhetoric, that causes consumers—you and me—to buy guns and ammo for fear of not being able to get either. Legislation can be a significant factor in most ammo shortages. 

The most recent ammo shortage, however, was a combination of a pandemic and national instability, causing a near perfect storm. Covid hit us with a sucker punch in 2020, and we didn’t know what was going to happen. Not that buying ammo would treat Covid, but there was that uncertainty over the supply of all goods. Remember people hoarding toilet paper? Ammo was on that list of supplies, maybe below masks and hand sanitizer, but it was on the list. 

The national instability came with the fallout from George Floyd’s death while being taken into police custody in 2020. Call them protests or riots, people were in fear. Respect for law and order had evaporated throughout the country. Cancel culture became the mantra of mobs on the street as statues were pulled down in attempts to rewrite history. Law enforcement was at times helpless to stop the rampage or as was most often the case, hand-tied by left leaning public officials who were either afraid to raise the ire of the mobs or in some instances, saw a political opportunity in allowing rioters to run amuck under the guise of “peaceful protests.” Businesses were destroyed, and we vividly remember home owners standing their ground in their front yard brandishing AR-15s and handguns. We all wondered if the mob was going to come to our neighborhood next. Ammo flew of the shelves as gun purchases also skyrocketed. Safety and self-rescue were our only options during that period. The social contract had been broken.

The New Ammo Shortage

The cause of this new ammo shortage is different. Global instability with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine is draining the market of gunpowder. Artillery shells use copious amounts of gunpowder—not the exact kind in your 308 Winchester cartridge—but it all comes from nitrocellulose, the key material in producing gunpowder and other munitions propellants. Nitrocellulose is not just used in producing gunpowder, but is also used to manufacture paints, ink and other finishes. Nitrocellulose is an agricultural product with Thailand, China and India the largest producers. The U.S. is a major importer. According to the Washington Times, members of Congress approached the Biden administration on getting ahead of the shortage back in April of this year. The intent of the Ammunition Supply Chain Act was to require the Biden administration to submit a report to Congress about the current state of the domestic supply of necessary components for smokeless gunpowder. No such report, however, has been provided by the Biden administration.

Players In The Ammo Space

The only domestic gunpowder manufacturer is St. Marks in Florida, a division of General Dynamics. St. Marks produces a broad spectrum of ball powder propellants for rimfire and magnum rifle cartridges to 20mm munitions and pistol cartridges. 

“With the Ukraine-Russia war and the fighting around Israel, gunpowder production has shifted to military needs,” says Peter Foss, CEO of Shell Tech ammunition. “We secured powder for our production knowing the shortage was on the horizon.” Shell Tech is a nimble ammunition manufacturer that produces high-quality ammo loaded in a two-piece proprietary shell case designed to outperform brass and nickel-plated brass for the same price as brass. Small manufactures can be fast to react while the big players—Remington, Hornady, Federal, Winchester, Fiocchi, and others—are large corporations that cannot easily turn on a dime. There is a board of directors they report to. 

I contacted numerous large ammo manufacturers for comment, but all I got was crickets. I get it. It does them no good to comment. At best. large ammunition manufactures can run a third shift, but they can’t stockpile powder since security and storage space costs is not in the budget. The big ammo players have also seen this cycle of supply and demand before and by the time they gear up the supply will be back to normal. This doesn’t mean the big players have not prepared. They have produced plenty of popular ammo like 9mm, 5.56 NATO, .308 Winchester, .30-30 and the like. It’s the less popular calibers like .44-40 Winchester, 6.5 Swede and others that become hard to find.

You may have already seen the impact of a coming gunpowder shortage. 

“Some magnum rifle calibers are being loaded with different powders,” says Steve Fox COO of Shell Tech. “You may notice that your magnum rifle caliber doesn’t have the velocity it should. That’s because the powder for those calibers is not available and an alternative powder is being used.” Foss and Fox also mention that brass is available but large primers—another product imported from oversea into the U.S.—have become harder to find.

An Ammo Retailer’s Perspective

Dan Wolgin, CEO of Ammunition Depot, has weathered the ammo shortage before. He did a quick back of the envelope calculation using the amount of munitions going to help Ukraine and Israel and quickly determined about 27 million pounds—give or take—was being diverted. That amount of powder equates to about 40 billion 9mm rounds. 

“During COVID, 9mm was more impacted than any other caliber,” Wolgin says. “With the military need, 5.56 NATO sees an impact.” Regardless of the factors, .22 LR goes first, typically because it cost less and is perhaps viewed more in this situation as a survival round. Wolgin believes in being nimble so he has stockpiled ammo and other supplies, so he can provide both availability and good prices. Understand it costs money to hold and store inventory and some retailers just can’t manage the numbers. 

“It really comes down to supply and demand,” says Wolgin, “and having good relationships with suppliers and customers.” The demand for gunpowder has risen and there is only so much supply. 

At the present there is plenty of ammo available at good prices. A quick online search found 9mm rounds going from $.21 to $.24 per round; 5.56 NATO is $.50 to $.62 per round depending on the quantity being purchased.

2024 Gunpowder Shortage: What To Do

Today, less than a month prior to the 2024 election there are rumors that another ammunition shortage is pending due to the shortage of gunpowder. Get ahead of the curve and buy when prices are low so your guns aren’t running on fumes. Or you can wait and cry about the higher prices. Either way, the storm is coming. This is your chance to be prepared.

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61 COMMENTS

  2. Cute thinking the guy who burned through our strategic petroleum reserve for a 2 point bump in the polls would do anything to offset a powder shortage.

    I know. Maybe importing 20 million more third world mouths to feed will stabilize our resource stocks and demand. If that doesn’t work well just shout “price gouger!!” at anyone with anything until we resort to cannibalism. Remember to eat the oppressors first. Those monsters with homes and retirement savings.

    • In the TTAG article yesterday “NY Gov’s Signing of Law Designed So NY Can Track Gun and Ammo Purchases” the state of NY will consider you a terrorist threat if they think you are stockpiling ammunition.

      • They would think that the moment they have any inkling you own firearms, this is just an excuse to go with the secret police red flags. But yeah saw that particular bill in committee for years and guess it is time to see where everything falls with courts and crazies.

      • louie…what part of at-least don’t you understand? As for ny its insane Gun Control is an extension of the third reich…sieg heil.

        • While 2k+ would be preferred the increasing risk/expense of doing so here can complicate that and 200 is perfectly reasonable for emergency use stash (riot hurricane etc). For many newer owners there isn’t a lot of spare money for ammo so a certain level of take what you can get is in play. As to NY reich Ja nein guten

          • If you are not well stocked with ammo in today’s crazy world, you may not survive. An easy solution to stockpiling, is to buy monthly. Utilize cost averaging so that the price spikes are less painful. My solution is an outfit called AmmoSquared. You designate how much you want to spend each month, what calibers you want (at what percentage of your monthly purchase. AmmoSquared then takes care of the rest. They buy what you want. then store it for you
            When you need/want ammo. they ship the quantity/calibers within a few days. I have been a member for a few years and I’m happy with them.

  5. I have heard that the communist chinese are using that marijunia plant to make black powder. Perhaps this is another use besides making rope and other products???

    The non intoxication marijuana business is a multi billion dollar a year industry. Unfortunately the le.gali.za.tio.n cr.o.wd only cares about getting intoxicated.

      • I blame the i.nto.xicat.ion cro.wd for not trying to explain all the things hemp has been used for over the centuries. And into the present.

        I learned about this, only because I researched and wrote a college paper about it.

        All they care about is making people even more stupid. And then have the rest of us, pay for all the stupid things that they do.

        Because they don’t believe in Liberty. Beause they don’t believe in the responsiblily and the consequences that go with it.

        They want “free” stuff. Including “free” medical weed ftom the government.

        • Mr. NT wants his “free” medical weed from the government???
          Yes I know the pot head crowd hates to be critized. To bad.

          They have never believed in liberty. Because they don’t believe in the responsibility and consequences that goes with it.

          They have always supported gun control.

          • “All they care about is making people even more stupid. And then have the rest of us, pay for all the stupid things that they do.”

            “The dangers of having a large masses of stupid people in a society.” video 21 minutes long. On youtube.

        • Well that’s one way to get a viable supply of phosphate relevant fertilizer……or various flu varieties before the CDC/China reengineer them.

          • IIRC, the piss of a well-fed human averages an NPK ratio of 1.2 – .4 – .8.

            Makes a great fertilizer if you don’t eat too much salt. Just dilute *at least* 5:1 with water.

            At 3 qts/day, the av person can fert a m^2 every day, or 19m^2/yr.

            I bet you’re glad you asked.

            • Wasn’t human urine used in the early production of gunpowder? Going to have to reread that section but could have sworn it was a less than optimal source for one component or another.

              • Don’t know, but seems likely accurate.

                The realization that many folks/civilizations throughout history have starved to death due to ag inadequacies, while simultaneously pissing away their salvation is a notable moment, tho.

                Ignorance is bliss, NOT!

              • Yes it was used for the nitrates. Very diluted and a messy, smelly process from what I have read but it does work if nothing else is available.

              • Hmm probably a similar issue with trying to process usable fertilizer from it. Possible but likely not utilized as often if the effort exceeded the rewards especially observed short term ones. Neat one though and may be worth looking into if wastewater treatment doesn’t already separate and process the components.

              • No issue as fert if you separate liquid from solid. 70% of plant nutrients excreted by humans come from the kidneys. Dilute and use. Solids at 30% are not worth messing with, just flush them. The humanure folks are full on nuts.

                Few preppers know this, surprisingly.

                Home garden only. Works great for that, but does not scale up well at all.

  7. No Bob, Radford produces all US nitrocellulose for Holston and St Mark’s. St Mark’s supplies Hodgdon who is at 50% allotment this year. We went from 14K to 100K 155mm and each takes 25 pounds of triple base powder… that’s what happened. The rest of the world uses cotton lint except China who use hemp…American NC is made from Southern White Pine paper as cellulose…not compatible with foriegners.

  9. I knew cellulose was used in the production of gunpowder. I used to drive by the St. Mark’s plant on the way to the St. Mark’s River. There’s excellent off shore grouper fishing there. When the government will let you keep one. What was news to me was that we are importing cellulose from Asia. It shouldn’t surprise me though. Buckeye Cellulose had a large facility down in Taylor County, but they folded their tents long ago.

    • IIRC, the original n-cellulose was cotton soaked in nitric acid, hence the term ‘guncotton’. This is a bad year for cotton in GA/Fl.

      I don’t know what the modern production path is, but the folks that plant, harvest and haul pine trees would be delighted to step up, if that is chemically practical.

      I assume the Olin plant dropped making dynamite, tho, because a pine stump ain’t worth picking up anymore.

      • XZX, you’re right about the stumps. When I was growing up there was a facility outside of the little town I lived in on the edge of the national forest. We just called it the chemical plant. Trucks loaded with “lighter” wood rolled in and RR cars with the Hercules logo on side rolled out. I haven’t seen a stump truck in decades. They used to be common around here.

        • I think the industry has mostly moved to “binaries” as safer to store and transport. And they are. Lighterd trade suffered.

  10. This powder shortage has been coming since the second invasion of Ukraine in late Feb. 2020. Military production is up for 5.56 NATO and 7.62×39 Russian worldwide. You can not find 7.62×39 Russian in large quantities in major retail stores. Powder ingredients are controlled by just a few countries worldwide and the U.S. does not have sufficient supplies stockpiled of these ingredients to produce the powder. I guess everyone can figure out what country has most of the ingredients we need to produce ammunition. It is not just a powder problem for small arms ammunition, but propellant for artillery cartridges and explosives for the 155 round.

    • Trail-Boss is also a good artillery propellant.

      Downunder we got caught between the privatization of the Mulwex-ADI powder plant to Thales. Thales decided to cut production and import powders that had local equivalents. The government then put restrictions on importing propellant powder. Some powders haven’t been available for years, notably pistol powders, and others have very limited stocks.

      Then COVID shortages flowing through the supply chains and the Ukraine war. AR2206H is what I use in .223 and I have seen any for sale for a few years. It was a mix made for Hogden who must be buying every grain they can buy or production has ceased. I now have to rework my loads for Benchmark 2 (BM2) which is similar to 06H.

      Primers are about 18-20c each when bought by the thousand and are costing the same as my projectiles. Powder is 2-3x what it used to cost if available. I’m buying bits here and there as I can afford them.

        • Of all things power pistol is a big one MIA out my way. But yeah never saw a can of trail boss since I started with reloading (but that’s just before Covid)

    • Things will be changing radically in Ukraine soon. The Russians appear to have a massive shortage of artillery shells. In the past week, rather than their usual massive barrages, artillery appears in use only in the west, with rest replaced with bombing raids. As an aside, I also understand that the shells they bought from the Norks were pretty poorly made.

      • Reminds me of the old Bugs Bunny cartoon. He’s checking artillery shells for duds on the assembly line.

      • I’ve heard from some online sources some of the Nork artillery rounds and rockets had some spectacular failures.

        And Nork conscripts in Ukraine have gone AWOL.

  12. Modern smokeless gunpowder is nitric acid ang cotton fiber. We still produce cotton in America and urine is full of nitric.

  14. And some folks called me crazy for stocking up on powder, reloading components and ammo.
    While I have a fairly decent supply, I still look for deals on more.
    Many of the more obscure calibers are in short supply, common calibers seem to be available.
    Get what you can when you can.

    • Actually, I can’t reload plain-Jane 9mm or 5.56, for the time it sells for. The fancy bullets, yes, that I reload, while I can

  15. No, we don’t use cotton because it became more expensive after LCD monitors took the cotton lint. Also we do import NC for other purposes and plain cellulose is ubiquitous in chemistry. The white pine paper is the current cellulose for gunpowder and cannon powders. It is chopped, masticated and then dissolved in Nitric acid…other comments are incorrect. OSHA and EPA say no new US plants…so I’m working on one in the Philippines now.

    • I’ve had experience with EPA too a couple times since they got on their Chevron deference high horse. No fun. Hopefully Loper Bright and a Trump administration, followed by something like a Vance administration, will rein them in.

      Obama’s USACE and EPA reversed course and blocked us from building a prior approved lake at a large church camp, because they deemed an intermittent stream bed (dry 6 months out of the year) to suddenly become a “navigable waterway” since it was a [remote] tributary of Alum Creek.

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